ROILO GOLEZ, Philippine National Security Adviser (2001-2004). The world and the Philippines as Roilo Golez sees it. With focus on national security, geopolitics, geo-security, economics, science and government.
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
People lost $1 billion on one-armed Pacquiao, Examiner.com
It's impossible for a one-armed fighter to win at boxing. And it'll be difficult for the "People's Champ" to win back the people's trust.
Here's the extent of the damage:
On Friday May 1st, the MGM Grand received a $500,000 wager on Manny Pacquiao. The innocent victim probably did not know that Pacman would be a one-armed bandit, and perhaps relied on Bob Arum's pre-fight claims that this version of Pacquiao may be the greatest he has ever seen.
Early in fight week, Floyd Mayweather was a minus-200 favorite over the underdog Pacquiao. The latter was at plus-170 at most sportsbooks. However, a flurry of last-minute bets on Pacquiao moved Mayweather's odds to minus-190. Those were erroneous odds and the gambling market incorrectly priced Pacquiao's chances of winning. By concealing his injury, Pacquiao enabled his strongest supporters to lose a fortune--perhaps to the tune of nearly $500 million worldwide.
At the MGM Grand, three times more bets had been placed on Pacquiao than on Mayweather. On Saturday, there were multiple six-figure bets on Pacquiao. Presumably, none of the victims were aware of the Filipino's real status as an injured boxer and/or relied on pre-fight claims that Manny was in the best shape of his life.
Nearly two-thirds of bets at William Hill were for Pacquiao.
At many casinos, nearly four out of five bets were for Pacquiao. The big bets were placed on Mayweather which evened things out.
PPV consumers may have lost nearly $400 million. Attendees may have lost nearly $250 from ticket sales on the secondary market. Pro-Manny gamblers may have lost nearly $500 million from faulty odds on Pacquiao.
On May 2nd, Manny Pacquiao was a one-handed southpaw facing the best defensive fighter of his era. But Bob Arum assured over 100 million Filipinos that this was the greatest Pacquiao ever. As a result of these misleading statements, people worldwide may have lost over $1 billion after buying the defective product known as Mayweather-Pacquiao.
Instead of telling the truth, Team Pacquiao, Top Rank, and boxing organizers (1) concealed the shoulder tear, and (2) are subsequently asking for a rematch in which the general public must spend even more money.
That's mind-numbingly outrageous.
Misleading Statements on Pacquiao's Health
Secondly, Team Pacquiao, Top Rank, and others repeatedly told millions of people that the Pacman was in the best shape of his life. Bob Arum claimed the May 2nd version of Pacquiao may be the greatest he has ever seen.
And Manny himself said that Mayweather would be an easy fight--that God himself would deliver his brash opponent on a silver platter. At his pre-fight rally, Manny assured his fans that they should remain calm and await his victory.
Those may be fraudulent statements, but let's see what the legal system decides after the lawsuits are over. Here's one definition of fraud:
A false representation of a matter of fact—whether by words or by conduct, by false or misleading allegations, or by concealment of what should have been disclosed—that deceives and is intended to deceive another so that the individual will act upon it to her or his legal injury.
Deceptive Sales Practices
The FBI and the U.S. Attorney's office need to investigate Top Rank, boxing insiders, big-time bettors, and other organizers of Mayweather-Pacquiao for:
Fraudulent promotion and deceptive sales tactics. Promoters and organizers did not disclose material information (Pacquiao's torn shoulder) to millions of people who bought the PPV and wagered their money on the presumption that both boxers maintained good health entering the fight. Gamblers presumed the betting odds were fair and based on Pacquiao's unmitigated skills. A one-handed Manny has a tiny chance of defeating a 47-0 Mayweather, and the odds should have reflected that.
Large wagers from organizers, boxing insiders, and related parties who possessed inside knowledge of Pacquiao's injury, who concealed and/or witheld such information, and who took advantage of innocent people by wagering on faulty odds.
Conflicts of interest, such as pre-fight discussion/collusion of a rematch given the witheld knowledge.
Unfair business practices such as manipulation of ticket market and concealment of facts that, with disclosure, would have materially aided consumer choice.
Faulty Betting Odds
Betting on Mayweather-Pacquiao probably exceeded over $1 billion worldwide, with most wagers done in unofficial/underground markets. Between $60 and $100 million worth of official bets were placed in the state of Nevada alone. In the U.S., other major sources of official betting include California, New York, Illinois, and Florida.
Internationally, there were huge bets coming from the Philippines, Macau/Hong Kong, other parts of Asia, and Europe. Most bets cannot be tallied because they are unofficial wagers and were not placed at casinos, betting sites, etc.
Top Rank, Team Pacquiao, and Mayweather Promotions are talking about a rematch.
This time, the millions of people who bought the PPV, who paid for a ticket, and/or who bet on the fight, should read this definition of a scam: