It is much easier to predict that the raw processing power of a PC will reach and transcend that of the human brain (taken as around 1016 operations/second)3 by about 2020 (e.g. Williams and Kuekes 2001; Kurzweil 1999: Ch. 6). Whether this achievement will quasi-automatically result in human-level intelligence, or whether a significant breakthrough in software technologies (or understanding of brain function) will be needed, is open.
Military Nanotechnology by Jurgen Altmann
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