EXCLUSIVE: Arctic sea ice loss is related to global warming

A new report from NOAA says Arctic summer sea ice could be a thing of the past.

Photo credit: NOAA

Science Recorder | Staff | Saturday, April 13, 2013

According to a newly released study commissioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Arctic could face its first ice-free summer ice as early as 2040.
The study is the first to show Arctic summers free of ice within the next twenty years, which the team of scientists attribute to rising temperatures related to global warming.

Relying on a series of climate models, researchers Muyin Wang, of the University of Washington, and James Overland, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, pieced together data collected by researchers in the region, crafting a model that shows sea ice in Arctic melting at a rate far exceeding previous predictions.
While the study’s authors concede that the timetable has a wide margin of error, they note that Arctic summers will almost certainly be ice free by the end of the century. The result of an Arctic without ice will likely lead to changes worldwide, including shifts in the jet stream and potential impacts in weather in the northern regions of North America and across Asia.
The study is published in the online edition of the American Geophysical Union publication Geophysical Research Letters.
The following is a transcript of our email conversation with the study’s lead author, James Overland, affiliate professor of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington.
Science Recorder (SR): What did this study examine in particular that led to the conclusion that sea ice could disappear within two decades?
James Overland (JO): We noted a large difference between what data was telling us about the
timing of sea ice loss (3/4 of sea ice volume since the1980s)
suggesting the next decade or two and the projections of timing coming
out of the climate models
which suggest 2060
SR: What is the most important take-away from this study?
JO: There are several reasons to consider that the projected time of sea ice loss in models was too slow. Thus, one should give more weight to the data and current understanding with a loss estimate between 2020 and 2040.
SR: If Arctic sea ice were to disappear, what do you see as the most important problem that might arise?
JO: Increased economic access -oil exploration and shipping Loss of habitat for walrus, polar bears and ice seals. With less summer sea ice, more heat is absorbed by the Ocean. This extra heat can then influence climate and winds and potentially weather extremes further south.
SR: Critics have questioned the existence of global warming. What does this study tell us about global warming effect on the Arctic and sea ice in general?
JO: The major sea ice loss and its associated impacts are a major indicator of climate change.

PHILIPPINE NATIONAL SECURITY & OTHER ISSUES

Saturday, April 13, 2013