Monday, April 1, 2013

The green, green grass of the Arctic: Researchers predict dramatic boost in trees and shrubs due to global warming Wooded areas in the region could increase by 50% Changes also set to effect animal migrations By MARK PRIGG


The green, green grass of the Arctic: Researchers predict dramatic boost in trees and shrubs due to global warming

  • Wooded areas in the region could increase by 50%
  • Changes also set to effect animal migrations
PUBLISHED: 09:12 GMT, 1 April 2013 | UPDATED: 10:52 GMT, 1 April 2013
The Arctic is set to become a lush and green landscape due to global warming, researchers have predicted.
Experts say the wooded areas in the region could increase by 50% over the coming decades - and accelerate global warming in the process.
Researchers have unveiled the most accurate map ever of how vegetation could change in the region.
A greener Arctic: The current distribution of plants is shown on the left, with predictions for 2050 using current models on the right - revealing a much greener area
A greener Arctic: The current distribution of plants is shown on the left, with predictions for 2050 using current models on the right - revealing a much greener area
'Such widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation would have impacts that reverberate through the global ecosystem,' said Richard Pearson, lead author on the paper and a research scientist at the American Museum of Natural History's Center for Biodiversity and Conservation.
In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades.
 

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The research team—which includes scientists from the Museum, AT&T Labs-Research, Woods Hole Research Center, Colgate University, Cornell University, and the University of York—used climate scenarios for the 2050s to predict how this trend is likely to continue in the future. 
The scientists developed models that statistically predict the types of plants that could grow under certain temperatures and precipitation. 
Meltwater forms icicles in spring as the thaw proceeds in the Arctic midnight sun: Researchers say the arctic could soon contain large wooded areas
Meltwater forms icicles in spring as the thaw proceeds in the Arctic midnight sun: Researchers say the arctic could soon contain large wooded areas
It shows the potential for massive redistribution of vegetation across the Arctic, with about half of all vegetation switching to a different class and a massive increase in tree cover. 
Experts say in Siberia, for instance, trees could grow hundreds of miles north of the present tree line.
'These impacts would extend far beyond the Arctic region,' Pearson said. 
'For example, some species of birds seasonally migrate from lower latitudes and rely on finding particular polar habitats, such as open space for ground-nesting.'
In addition, the researchers investigated the multiple climate change feedbacks that greening would produce. 
Nasa has revealed this image showing the effect of global warming:
Changing colour of the Arctic: The area highlighted in white represents 10 million square miles (26 million square kilometers) of northern vegetated lands and up to 41 percent showed increases in plant growth, represented by the colours green and blue. Up to 5 percent showed decreases in plant growth, represented by orange and red. The colour changes are over the past 30 years.
They found that a phenomenon called the albedo effect, based on the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, would have the greatest impact on the Arctic's climate. 
When the sun hits snow, most of the radiation is reflected back to space. 
But when it hits an area that's 'dark,' or covered in trees or shrubs, more sunlight is absorbed in the area and temperature increases. 
This adds to the global warming problem.
'By incorporating observed relationships between plants and albedo, we show that vegetation distribution shifts will result in an overall positive feedback to climate that is likely to cause greater warming than has previously been predicted,' said co-author Scott Goetz, of the Woods Hole Research Center.
Earlier this month shocking new images revealed by Nasa show the Arctic is becoming lusher and greener as temperatures rise.
Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden, in 1997 and 2009 showing a massive difference in greenery
Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden, in 1997 and 2009 showing a massive difference in greenery
'Vegetation growth at Earth's northern latitudes increasingly resembles lusher latitudes to the south' the agency said after releasing a new study based on a 30-year record of land surface and newly improved satellite data sets.
The images show how the extreme of the Northern Hemisphere is changing, with previously frozen areas now showing lush green grass and trees growing

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"Yeah, sure! Back in the 1960s through the 1980s, those same "researchers" were proclaiming that we were in the midst of man-made global COOLING; an imminent ice age!"
- Gene Campbell, Arlington TX, United States, 1/4/2013 20:22

Untrue. See 'the Myth of the 1970's Global cooling Consensus' by Peterson et al for evidence of this.
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Yeah, sure! Back in the 1960s through the 1980s, those same "researchers" were proclaiming that we were in the midst of man-made global COOLING; an imminent ice age! Then they switched to man-made warming without admitting they were wrong. It's just more leftist, "Henny Penny" political b.s. to spend more massive amounts of taxpayers' money.
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Many seed packets show a pic of the U.S. and the growing ranges for various plants...all these guys did was extend and expand that further north....something that a kid could do. These people, like most of the other Global Warming idiots must really think people are stupid. I'm surprised they haven't tried to depict the Mississippi Valley as the next Amazon River Basin and future rain forrest. They probably will, eventually, but right now the focus is on the most northern latitudes and the ice found there.
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This is proof that global warming is not all bad. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere acts like fertiliser and helps plants to grow - part of the reason that production of food crops has experienced a phenomenal increase in productivity in the last 50 years. CO2 is the life giver - without it photosynthesis would not exist and there would be no plants. We would not exist. CO2 has been getting dangerously low these past 2 million years - there has been a risk of snowball earth which would be the end of everything for millions of years. Increasing levels of CO2 have greatly diminished this risk.
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"Wegman reported the criticisms of Mann¿s reconstruction were ¿valid and compelling.¿"
- maxdl80, Los Angeles, United States, 1/4/2013 17:40

Typical denier. You seem completely unaware that Mann's temperature reconstructions have been duplicated by multiple scientists and all found broadly the same thing, reinforcing that Mann's work is correct.
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Perhaps the most notorious of agenda-driven proxy reconstructions was published by global warming alarmist Michael Mann. As a young, relatively unknown recent Ph.D. graduate, Mann attained wealth, fame and adulation among global warming alarmists after assembling a proxy temperature reconstruction that he claimed showed global temperatures underwent a steady, roughly 1,000-year decline followed by a sharp rise during the 20th century. The media reported on the Mann hockey stick reconstruction as if it settled the global warming debate, but objective scientists pointed out several crucial flaws that invalidated Mann¿s claims. Eventually, Congress commissioned distinguished statistician Edward Wegman to review and report on Mann¿s methods and conclusions. After assembling a blue ribbon panel of experts to study Mann¿s temperature reconstruction, Wegman reported the criticisms of Mann¿s reconstruction were ¿valid and compelling.¿
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Perhaps the most notorious of agenda-driven proxy reconstructions was published by global warming alarmist Michael Mann. As a young, relatively unknown recent Ph.D. graduate, Mann attained wealth, fame and adulation among global warming alarmists after assembling a proxy temperature reconstruction that he claimed showed global temperatures underwent a steady, roughly 1,000-year decline followed by a sharp rise during the 20th century. The media reported on the Mann hockey stick reconstruction as if it settled the global warming debate, but objective scientists pointed out several crucial flaws that invalidated Mann¿s claims. Eventually, Congress commissioned distinguished statistician Edward Wegman to review and report on Mann¿s methods and conclusions. After assembling a blue ribbon panel of experts to study Mann¿s temperature reconstruction, Wegman reported the criticisms of Mann¿s reconstruction were ¿valid and compelling.¿
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Along with the drop in albedo from the disappearance of seasonal and permanent ice, the warmer temperatures which will enable this additional growth in vegetation will also allow permafrost to thaw and release methane as its long-sequestered organic carbon material decomposes. Those two factors alone would overwhelm any additional short-term CO2 fixing which the enhanced vegetative growth may provide. Overall, this increase in high-latitude vegetation is a symptom of a bad outcome. And to lgf in NJ -- you live near the coastline? If so (and you rebuilt after Superstorm Sandy), you or your descendants will need that additional area up north because you'll have been forced by rising sea levels to move or drown.
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"Global Warming Causes Expansion in Antarctic Sea Ice Science and World Report April 01, 2013"
- wireless.phil, Lorain, United States, 1/4/2013 15:50

And a reduction in land ice. Overall Antarctic ice mass is decreasing. Typical denier trying to mislead people.
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I love how all the conservastools come on here and post garbage like "all the extra CO2 will help plants produce oxygen which we need." Most of these fools can barely add much less do the calculations necessary to actually PROVE their BS theories unlike REAL scientists who actually have.
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