Notwithstanding China's commitment to implement Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea (DOC) based on the norms of International Law and to formulate and implement the Code of Conduct (COC) as well as to resolve the South China Sea disputes peacefully through negotiations, its policies are working just in the opposite direction escalating tension in the region. The serious implications of its aggressive acts and postures are palpable to all who have interests in the South China Sea (SCS).

China following a well-crafted strategy is systematically moving to establish its control over the area it claims in SCS. As a first step, it formed a Committee of thirteen agencies/departments in February 2012 to fabricate evidence and publicise its claims over the most area in SCS shown through the nine dotted lines. After it made recommendations, China in its new biometric passports projected all the areas in the SCS as belonging to China. These passports also show parts of India as belonging to China. This act of China generated a strong reaction in the neighbouring countries as also in other countries using SCS for trade. While both Vietnam and the Philippines refused to stamp the Chinese travel documents, India began to stamp its own version of the Indian Territory. Jakarta called the Chinese act as counter-productive and the US described these Chinese passports as unhelpful to the resolution of disputes. The second step was the establishment of the prefectural level city of Sansha to administer the Paracel and Spratly Islands in June 2012. Soon after this, China created a military command base there. And as the third step of its strategy, China declared that its police in the Southern Chinese Island of Hainan on the SCS has been authorised to board and search any ship they deem illegal in the "Chinese waters". The new regulations are to be enforced from the 1st January 2013.

All these acts of China are in fact potential triggers for conflicts in the region. China is also continuing with its provocative actions. On 30th November, 2012 Vietnam accused a Chinese fishing boat for cutting the cables of its exploration vessel Binh Minh 02. On expected lines, China on the other hand stated that Vietnam expelled its fishing vessels from its waters. The cutting of cables by China has been criticised even by Chinese security experts like Professor Zhu Feng of International Relations at Peking University. China has also stated that its patrol boats would be around Scarborough Shoal. Such provocative acts can result into a conflict. China is now seen as creator of hurdles in the steps being taken by ASEAN to resolve the issue peacefully. The Chinese reluctance to discuss the issue at multilateral forums continues. The ASEAN July meeting in Cambodia clearly established that China keeps on using its influence on Cambodia, the present Chair of ASEAN to ensure that the SCS disputes are not properly discussed. Even the recent ASEAN Summit reflected that the issue remains hostage to the Chinese policy of not allowing proper discussion and projection of the disputes. The neighbours of China also see that the Chinese modernisation of the armed forces at a break-neck speed is not meant to defend its interests but to threaten them into submission. The recent landing of J 15 on the newly acquired air-craft carrier has alarmed the powers interested in the region. They also note that Chinese official defence budget has crossed $106 bn this year. 

The Chinese policies and posture are causing an armed race in the SCS region. While Vietnam and Philippines are looking to acquire arms to counter the Chinese activities, Japan is also re-orienting its defence policy. Outside powers are now becoming more assertive in stating that they intend to protect the freedom of navigation. In addition, they are also guided by their strategic objectives. US not only have Asia pivot policy but are clearly taking steps to protect the US interests by enhancing their presences in this region. The situation can be rightly termed as alarming. The security experts in China's neighbouring nations are getting seriously concerned about the Chinese activities. Their security experts point out that modernisation of the Chinese Navy is a major security concern. They point out that the Chinese rise is not peaceful. They are suggesting that suitable up-gradation of their armed forces is imperative in view of developing security environment. 

An assessment of the situation reveal clearly that the Chinese posturing and activities have moved up from being merely "a concern" to "a serious threat" to the region's stability. Such Chinese activities have made the situation highly explosive. Even an unintended incident can act as a trigger for a conflict. Today the South China Sea stands very close to a conflict than ever before. The moot question is whether something can be done at this stage or not to save the world from a conflict. The Chinese leaders, who have great sense for learning from historical experiences, should be able to see that their activities are not in their interests. They are getting marginalised in the International Community. The present policy of International Community of managing and engaging China has limits and the moment China crosses the proverbial Rubicon, the concerned powers would abandon this policy and resort to arms to protect their interests. It may be recalled that before the Second World War, UK had adopted the policy of "Appeasement" which was also followed by France and others to a point but when Hitler's Germany decided to attack Poland, they abandoned it and the war followed. Peace loving people do not like to hear the "sound of cannons" but when it comes to protecting their national interests, they would not mind listening to cancerous sound of guns. 

Chinese new leadership which has interest in expanding the trade with ASEAN, should see that these nations provide an excellent market for their products. Another aspect that the Chinese should realise is the fact that the South China Sea disputes are multi-lateral in nature and have to be discussed at multi-lateral forums involving all parties in the disputes. Fortunately there are some experts in China who understand this aspect. 

The International Community too has a responsibility in nudging and pressurising all the involved nations to come to an agreement. There had not been sufficient pressure on China to abandon the present posture which is not conducive for peace. The International Community has been in fact whetting the appetite of China by following a policy of inaction. There has been a view amongst the security community that China is testing waters by provocative steps and is gauging the tolerance limit. The time has come that a unified approach is adopted to deal with China. Keeping in view the Chinese economic interests, China would not be able to ignore such an action. The International Community should put pressure on China to stop provocative steps and take steps for the resolution of the issue. There are number of drafts which have been produced by experts for Code of Conduct (COC) for South China Sea. These should be seriously considered rather than waiting for suitable environment. The implementation of an agreed COC would at least ensure that no untoward incident takes place. 

The coming India ASEAN meet in the third week of this month would be another opportunity to discuss the South China Sea issue and come up with some reasonable suggestion. It is understood that final resolution may be difficult to arrive at but COC can be evolved for ensuring peace in the region. The India should take a lead in this direction. India has sufficient experience in dealing with China. Despite 15 rounds of talks there has been practically no progress on the border issue. In addition like in the SCS China continues with provocative actions like intruding on the Indian Territory, writing China on the Indian rocks and objecting presence of Indians from the North East India or J&K in military delegations. Two former Special Representatives and former National Security Advisors of India had noted the Chinese game plan. While Sri M.K.Narayanan had stated that China is playing a waiting game, late Sri Brijesh Mishra had pointed out the need to take help of US to resolve all the issues including our interests in the SCS. The recent round of talks clearly indicated the Chinese strategy of not dealing with the issue of the border dispute but avoiding the main issue by projecting that the talks have broader goals of development, mutual cooperation and inclusive growth. In the past Chinese had come up with double meaning guidelines and frameworks. Indian leadership needs to see this clearly and work out a strategy with ASEAN and other nations for the resolution of its border issue and the SCS which is important to all.

By SD Pradhan, The Times of India.