Here's What a Shooting War in the East China Sea Might Look Like
Tensions are escalating as China tries to claim a new zone of airspace authority—which the U.S. promptly ignores. Here's what to expect if this cold war involving Japan, China, the U.S., and other East Asian nations heats up.
By Joe Pappalardo
A Taiwan navy Kidd-class destroyer launches a SM-2 surface to air missile during a livefire drill at sea near the east coast of Taiwan on September 26, 2013.
Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images
This past weekend China escalated tensions in the East China Sea by unilaterally establishing what it calls an Air Defense Identification Zone that includes islands claimed by other nations. China released a map and coordinates of this zone, demanding that any aircraft report to China before entering the airspace, declaring that its armed forces "will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions."
This posturing got an early test on Monday when the United States flew two B-52s straight through the zone China has claimed, with no response from China. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has said the flight, which took off from Guam, was part of a prescheduled exercise. But it seems clear that the U.S. is also sending a message that it won't respect such a claim. "We view this development as a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said this weekend. "This unilateral action increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculations."
Tensions were high already in this part of the East China Sea, as Japan and Taiwan both claim ownership of islands inside the Chinese zone (and South Korea is not thrilled that some of its airspace overlaps with the Air Defense ID Zone). The islands—called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyudao by the Chinese—are valuable as fishing grounds and oil and natural gas fields. Recent incidents have seen Chinese fishermen arrested by the Japanese Coast Guard, and Japanese jets scrambling in response to impending Chinese incursions. (The Japanese have also rejected the Chinese zone.)
The war of words and maritime move–countermove has been under way for years, but this latest escalation could be the fuse to ignite a war that can't easily be stopped. Here's how a hypothetical scenario might unfold.
Drones are great tools of escalation. National leaders will fly them in areas where it might be too dangerous for a pilot. Other national leaders are not as hesitant to attack them. After all, it's only a robot.
Our hypothetical incident starts in the air, at 45,000 feet. An unarmed Chinese W-50 drone is dispatched to keep an eye on the waterways and airspace of the Air Defense ID Zone. In September 2012 the Xinhua news agency reported that China's State Oceanic Administration would step up the use of drones to "strengthen marine surveillance" in disputed areas of the South China Sea, and a string of bases have appeared on the shoreline in 2013.
The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) operates Boeing E-767s, 160-foot airplanes stuffed with radar and electronics that enable them to detect aircraft from 200 miles away. They confirm that the Chinese drone is wheeling above the Senkakus, and Japan dispatches F-15Js to intercept it—and shoot it down—obviously ignoring China's Air Defense ID Zone. Chinese long-range, back-scatter radar spots the F-15Js in the air, and China dispatches quad-prop Y-8X maritime patrol for a better-resolution look. They also alert their best fighters—Sukhoi Flankers (Su 30) and Chengdu J-10s—to prepare to take off. Everyone will later say that these flights were meant for "verification and monitoring." But the F-15Js and Chinese jets are both armed.
Japanese pilots, trying to stay hidden, approach without radar on, instead using the data from the E-767s to get close to the Chinese forces. But the electronically steered array radar of the J-10s spot them. When the F-15Js' radar-warning receiver goes off, even though the chime indicates that it's not the guidance radar of an inbound missile, the Japanese pilot panics.
Action in the air is fast-paced. Snap judgments with lethal consequences come with the territory. When the Chinese fighters arrive to hem in the F-15Js, a Japanese pilot's evasive maneuvers cause a midair collision with a J-10. Then the air-to-air missiles fly—Japanese-built AAM-3s versus Chinese PL-11s. At the end of several minutes of fighting, pilots on both sides have died, but the skirmish ends there—for now. The battle started with enough ambiguity that both sides claim to be victims.
Don't let the name fool you—Japan's Self Defense Forces are pretty advanced war fighters. Over the decades the island nation has built up the most formidable military in Asia. China has been pouring money into its military to match some of Japan's U.S.-made equipment, but the Japanese have better ships and airplanes. The United States is bound by treaty to protect Japan if it is attacked, but pundits debate whether the events in the East China Sea meet that standard. And both Japan and the U.S. are already war-weary and hoping the situation cools down.
The lull after the air battle is deceptive. While China is itching to prove itself as a regional hegemon, its military does not want to launch headlong into a fight for airspace it will lose. So it turns to other tactics, even as diplomats discuss ways to ease tensions. Chinese submarines—quiet diesel–electric models that are hard to spot in the shallows—begin to lay mines. This would be easier to do by air, but the Chinese don't have air superiority, and want to block Japanese ships from nearing the contested islands. This move will keep Japanese and American warships from getting close to the islands, a necessary condition in case China wants to land troops. It also hampers Japanese and American air operations by keeping naval radar out of the area. (Not to mention the inability to rescue pilots downed in any future air battle. And the pilots would become diplomatic bargaining chips upon capture.)
China has no shortage of mines. A 2012 paper by the U.S. Naval War College cited a Chinese article claiming the nation has more than 50,000 mines, including "over 30 varieties of contact, magnetic, acoustic, water pressure and mixed reaction sea mines, remote control sea mines, rocket-rising and mobile mines." The smartest mines in the inventory would be the most useful to the Chinese. They can be programmed to rise and strike ships with particular acoustic and magnetic signatures. The mines can also be remotely activated. China could lace the sea lanes with these and wait for the order to be given—a public warning to all in the East China Sea to keep out.
The United States is good at sniffing out submarines. When Americans find Chinese subs deploying mines in areas where U.S. carrier groups will be operating, they try to force them to the surface. Under the water, U.S. submarines outgun the Chinese. They try to run, try to hide, and ultimately scuttle their ships with all hands lost.
China activates the mines in anger and to save face—a retreat right now would humiliate the army and central government. A death spiral of war ensues. Ships explode. Sailors burn to death and drown. There is a call from Taiwan and Japan to degrade the Chinese navy, to strip them of their assets with air strikes and cruise missiles. Leaks in Washington, D.C., hint at a forceful plan. Knowing what the U.S. and Japanese militaries can do if given time to prepare, and knowing they are underdogs in the fight, the Chinese military have good reason to consider a preemptive strike.
The crux of the war is still centered on these virtually uninhabited islands, but the fighting is spreading. And missiles, not airplanes, will determine who dominates the airspace over the disputed islands.
It starts with a wave of unmanned aerial vehicle attacks from the Chinese mainland. The Harpy drones take off from trucks and boats, fly as far as 300 miles, and hone in on radar emissions of surface-to-air defenses. The Harpy, made in Israel and sold to China in 2004, ends its flight with a death dive into the radar, detonating 4.5 pounds of explosives on impact.
The American/Japanese alliance is ready to own the air over the Sendakus. The attack on Chinese radar and air-defense installations comes shortly thereafter. Submarine-launched Tomahawks, B-2 stealth bomber runs, and long-range "standoff" missiles fired from B-52s hit targets. The Chinese have moved mobile radar systems and switched them off to keep them hidden. F-22s take to the sky, ready to fight and win dogfights. But these never happen.
Instead, China deals its last card—a barrage of theater missiles. These are conventional ballistic and cruise missiles fired from land, as far as 3500 miles away. These target fixed locations—Japanese air bases, naval stations, and American Air Force and Marine Corps bases. Hundreds of warheads drop on targets, beating missile defense systems, wrecking runways, and blasting barracks. At sea the Navy is also targeted. Hypersonic missiles fired from land or submarines target U.S. warships and Japanese vessels. The lesson is clear: The closer to the Chinese coast U.S. forces operate, the more trouble Chinese forces can bring to bear.
The U.S. naval forces back off and use more standoff weapons. Our scenario ends with a stalemated game of barrage and counterbarrage. But the central claim—who owns the islands—has been answered. They are no longer safe for anyone.
This posturing got an early test on Monday when the United States flew two B-52s straight through the zone China has claimed, with no response from China. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has said the flight, which took off from Guam, was part of a prescheduled exercise. But it seems clear that the U.S. is also sending a message that it won't respect such a claim. "We view this development as a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said this weekend. "This unilateral action increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculations."
Tensions were high already in this part of the East China Sea, as Japan and Taiwan both claim ownership of islands inside the Chinese zone (and South Korea is not thrilled that some of its airspace overlaps with the Air Defense ID Zone). The islands—called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyudao by the Chinese—are valuable as fishing grounds and oil and natural gas fields. Recent incidents have seen Chinese fishermen arrested by the Japanese Coast Guard, and Japanese jets scrambling in response to impending Chinese incursions. (The Japanese have also rejected the Chinese zone.)
The war of words and maritime move–countermove has been under way for years, but this latest escalation could be the fuse to ignite a war that can't easily be stopped. Here's how a hypothetical scenario might unfold.
One: Drone Incursion
Drones are great tools of escalation. National leaders will fly them in areas where it might be too dangerous for a pilot. Other national leaders are not as hesitant to attack them. After all, it's only a robot.
Our hypothetical incident starts in the air, at 45,000 feet. An unarmed Chinese W-50 drone is dispatched to keep an eye on the waterways and airspace of the Air Defense ID Zone. In September 2012 the Xinhua news agency reported that China's State Oceanic Administration would step up the use of drones to "strengthen marine surveillance" in disputed areas of the South China Sea, and a string of bases have appeared on the shoreline in 2013.
The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) operates Boeing E-767s, 160-foot airplanes stuffed with radar and electronics that enable them to detect aircraft from 200 miles away. They confirm that the Chinese drone is wheeling above the Senkakus, and Japan dispatches F-15Js to intercept it—and shoot it down—obviously ignoring China's Air Defense ID Zone. Chinese long-range, back-scatter radar spots the F-15Js in the air, and China dispatches quad-prop Y-8X maritime patrol for a better-resolution look. They also alert their best fighters—Sukhoi Flankers (Su 30) and Chengdu J-10s—to prepare to take off. Everyone will later say that these flights were meant for "verification and monitoring." But the F-15Js and Chinese jets are both armed.
Japanese pilots, trying to stay hidden, approach without radar on, instead using the data from the E-767s to get close to the Chinese forces. But the electronically steered array radar of the J-10s spot them. When the F-15Js' radar-warning receiver goes off, even though the chime indicates that it's not the guidance radar of an inbound missile, the Japanese pilot panics.
Action in the air is fast-paced. Snap judgments with lethal consequences come with the territory. When the Chinese fighters arrive to hem in the F-15Js, a Japanese pilot's evasive maneuvers cause a midair collision with a J-10. Then the air-to-air missiles fly—Japanese-built AAM-3s versus Chinese PL-11s. At the end of several minutes of fighting, pilots on both sides have died, but the skirmish ends there—for now. The battle started with enough ambiguity that both sides claim to be victims.
Two: Quiet Escalation
Don't let the name fool you—Japan's Self Defense Forces are pretty advanced war fighters. Over the decades the island nation has built up the most formidable military in Asia. China has been pouring money into its military to match some of Japan's U.S.-made equipment, but the Japanese have better ships and airplanes. The United States is bound by treaty to protect Japan if it is attacked, but pundits debate whether the events in the East China Sea meet that standard. And both Japan and the U.S. are already war-weary and hoping the situation cools down.
The lull after the air battle is deceptive. While China is itching to prove itself as a regional hegemon, its military does not want to launch headlong into a fight for airspace it will lose. So it turns to other tactics, even as diplomats discuss ways to ease tensions. Chinese submarines—quiet diesel–electric models that are hard to spot in the shallows—begin to lay mines. This would be easier to do by air, but the Chinese don't have air superiority, and want to block Japanese ships from nearing the contested islands. This move will keep Japanese and American warships from getting close to the islands, a necessary condition in case China wants to land troops. It also hampers Japanese and American air operations by keeping naval radar out of the area. (Not to mention the inability to rescue pilots downed in any future air battle. And the pilots would become diplomatic bargaining chips upon capture.)
China has no shortage of mines. A 2012 paper by the U.S. Naval War College cited a Chinese article claiming the nation has more than 50,000 mines, including "over 30 varieties of contact, magnetic, acoustic, water pressure and mixed reaction sea mines, remote control sea mines, rocket-rising and mobile mines." The smartest mines in the inventory would be the most useful to the Chinese. They can be programmed to rise and strike ships with particular acoustic and magnetic signatures. The mines can also be remotely activated. China could lace the sea lanes with these and wait for the order to be given—a public warning to all in the East China Sea to keep out.
The United States is good at sniffing out submarines. When Americans find Chinese subs deploying mines in areas where U.S. carrier groups will be operating, they try to force them to the surface. Under the water, U.S. submarines outgun the Chinese. They try to run, try to hide, and ultimately scuttle their ships with all hands lost.
China activates the mines in anger and to save face—a retreat right now would humiliate the army and central government. A death spiral of war ensues. Ships explode. Sailors burn to death and drown. There is a call from Taiwan and Japan to degrade the Chinese navy, to strip them of their assets with air strikes and cruise missiles. Leaks in Washington, D.C., hint at a forceful plan. Knowing what the U.S. and Japanese militaries can do if given time to prepare, and knowing they are underdogs in the fight, the Chinese military have good reason to consider a preemptive strike.
Three: Missiles
The crux of the war is still centered on these virtually uninhabited islands, but the fighting is spreading. And missiles, not airplanes, will determine who dominates the airspace over the disputed islands.
It starts with a wave of unmanned aerial vehicle attacks from the Chinese mainland. The Harpy drones take off from trucks and boats, fly as far as 300 miles, and hone in on radar emissions of surface-to-air defenses. The Harpy, made in Israel and sold to China in 2004, ends its flight with a death dive into the radar, detonating 4.5 pounds of explosives on impact.
The American/Japanese alliance is ready to own the air over the Sendakus. The attack on Chinese radar and air-defense installations comes shortly thereafter. Submarine-launched Tomahawks, B-2 stealth bomber runs, and long-range "standoff" missiles fired from B-52s hit targets. The Chinese have moved mobile radar systems and switched them off to keep them hidden. F-22s take to the sky, ready to fight and win dogfights. But these never happen.
Instead, China deals its last card—a barrage of theater missiles. These are conventional ballistic and cruise missiles fired from land, as far as 3500 miles away. These target fixed locations—Japanese air bases, naval stations, and American Air Force and Marine Corps bases. Hundreds of warheads drop on targets, beating missile defense systems, wrecking runways, and blasting barracks. At sea the Navy is also targeted. Hypersonic missiles fired from land or submarines target U.S. warships and Japanese vessels. The lesson is clear: The closer to the Chinese coast U.S. forces operate, the more trouble Chinese forces can bring to bear.
The U.S. naval forces back off and use more standoff weapons. Our scenario ends with a stalemated game of barrage and counterbarrage. But the central claim—who owns the islands—has been answered. They are no longer safe for anyone.
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