The US-Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy has put huge pressure on Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is ambitious to rebuild a "Great Russia," didn't make a wasted opportunity out of the US financial crisis. He has been actively involved in regional politics in the Asia-Pacific region to show his ambition to rebuild Russia as a major player, but this has complicated security issues in East Asia.
In early November, Russia and Japan held their first-ever conference between defense and foreign ministers, their first in the 2+2 format, showing the possibility for the two to reach political reconciliation. Putin earlier visited Vietnam and South Korea, indicating Russia's ambitions to intervene in East Asian affairs. During Putin's visit, Russia and Vietnam signed 18 cooperation agreements across a range of different fields, including military, energy and technology agreements, reaching a consensus to build an overall strategic partnership. Russia and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding concerning their joint participation on the Rajin-Khasan railroad project jointly led by Russia and North Korea, dubbed the "Steel Silk Road" by the Chinese press, which the South Korean President Park Geun-hye sees as part of his "Eurasia Initiative," a vision of regional and economic cooperation between Europe and Asia.
The talks between Russia and Japan and Putin's visit to East Asia, looked ostensibly like routine diplomatic visits, but in reality this marks the rolling out of Russia strengthening of its influence in the Asia Pacific region, which will change the status quo for Sino-Russian, Sino-Japanese and Sino-Vietnamese relations. Shinzo Abe probably believes that the Russo-Japanese security cooperation will not only facilitate talks with Russia over the disputed South Kuril Islands islands, but will also have the effect of containing the rise of China's military power. However, Beijing's foreign ministry reiterated that Sino-Russo relations are at a high point, hinting that any move by Japan will not be capable of alienating the two countries.
As to the difficulty of improving Russo-Japanese relations, the key lies in the ownership of the disputed South Kuril islands, referred to by Japan as the Northern Territories, claimed by both Japan, Russia. In March last year when Putin became president, he proposed the return of Habomai and Shikotan (only 6% of the total area of the four islands) to Japan, without first seeking approval from the Japanese side. If Abe thinks only to combat China, even at the expense of the interests of Japan, Russia and Japan could conclude a peace treaty; then the commitment of the Sino-Russian joint maintenance of a post-World War II mechanism definitely will be tested.
The improving relations between Russia and Vietnam will affect China's strategic position in the South China Sea. Russia has in recent years sold advanced weapons such as military aircrafts and submarines to Vietnam, and is actively promoting its advanced tanks in the Philippines — these moves touched a nerve in Beijing.
Russia sold advanced weapons to Vietnam and provided huge loans to help it upgrade its military equipment. Putin's move was, most likely, a purely commercial one, but it also expands Russia's reach in the Asia Pacific region, thus upending the status quo with respect to possible military conflicts in the South China Sea in the future.
Facing the rising tests and challenges, Beijing's leaders have made frequent visits to Vietnam since the beginning of the year to show their sincerity in resolving disputes in the South China Sea, and in the hope of avoiding military conflicts.
Moscow has forged a political alliance with Beijing, but it also actively supports Vietnam and India militarily — a strategy that won't help Russia achieve economic prosperity in the Far East.
Sino-Russian relations have for a long time been rather concentrated in the upper realms of government, with top leaders from both sides interacting actively but non-governmental exchange between the two countries not widespread and severely lacking in mutual understanding. Putin is worried about China's continuous expansion in terms of its economy and population.
The 21st century is the Asia-Pacific century, a century that is sure to see the rise of East Asia. The success or failure of Russia's Asia-Pacific ambitions relies on how it handles relations with major players. Russia puts too much emphasis on energy and arms sales which may not aid it in maintaining a strategic balance between the different powers in the region.
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