Speech of ROILO GOLEZ, Keynote Speaker, Annual General Assembly and Convention of the Philippine Military Academy Alumni Association (PMAAA), 24 January 2015: "WAKE UP PHILIPPINES! DOUBLE TIME PHILIPPINES!"

Speech of ROILO GOLEZ, Keynote Speaker, Annual General Assembly and Convention of the Philippine Military Academy Alumni Association (PMAAA), 24 January 2015, AFP Theater, Camp General Emilio Aguinaldo, Quezon City. Golez is former Philippine congressman who served for six (6) terms and served in the Philippine cabinet as National Security Adviser.

WAKE UP PHILIPPINES! DOUBLE TIME PHILIPPINES!

First of all, I would like to thank you for making me your keynote speaker in this very important event of the Philippine Military Academy Alumni Association (PMAAA). It is an honor and privilege, made doubly more significant by the fact that I hold no official position in the government, now on my sabbatical from politics after serving for six terms in Congress and three years in the Cabinet. 

The theme of your General Assembly and Convention is: “Cavaliers: Leading the quest for lasting peace and security.”

Your theme is always very timely, always relevant for any country, especially the Philippines which is considered one of the world’s emerging economies, about to rise to greater heights.

And I agree the Cavaliers lead and should lead the “quest for lasting peace and security.” After all, Cavaliers occupy the highest positions in the defense, army, navy, air force, police and coast guard establishments traditionally identified as the agencies comprising the vanguard in promoting peace and security.

But of course we all know that peace and security, especially security, pertain not only to physical or military security, but also now encompass security in the field of food, water, energy, environment, climate change, health, transportation, infrastructures, and many other fields, all of which are intertwined and interdependent. A major failure in one area could result in a succession of failures in other areas, like a row of falling dominoes. 

Imagine for example how a food riot or a deadly pandemic would affect security. Or how a security breakdown could affect people’s health or food requirements.

And I note that in all the fields I mentioned, Cavaliers are there playing a key, crucial role. Leading the way!

But let me focus first on the more traditional areas of peace and security, the fields of those in the uniformed services: Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and Coast Guard.

And let’s look at the situation in a number of countries in our midst whose uniformed services we look at with envy.

(Note: pictures and text from Wikipedia)

There’s Japan, fully devastated in the Second World War, but after only seventy years, now among the world’s most powerful in terms of defense, police and coast guard assets (pictures and 

JAPAN ARMY

Vehicles

JAPAN NAVY

Surface Fleets – Helicopter Destroyers

 

JAPAN AIR FORCE

JAPAN POLICE

 

JAPAN COAST GUARD

Let’s also look at South Korea, devastated by the Korean War and now also among the world’s most powerful in terms of defense, police and coast guard assets:

SOUTH KOREA ARMY

 

SOUTH KOREA NAVY

 

SOUTH KOREA AIR FORCE

 

SOUTH KOREA POLICE

SOUTH KOREA COAST GUARD

 

Within ASEAN, let’s look at Malaysia’s Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and Coast Guard assets: 

MALAYSIA ARMY

MALAYSIA NAVY

MALAYSIA AIR FORCE

Malaysia’s air force today, with those Su-30s and F-18s is awesome compared to what the Philippine Air Force has. But in November 1968, it was different. Look at this news clip, headline of the Malaysian newspaper, The Straits Times.

The news says: “The Royal Malaysian Navy has been on round-the-clock alert since Tuesday, when the K.D. Negri Sembilan was buzzed by two Philippine Air Force jet fighters between Tawau and Sandakan.”

For your information, the K.D. Negri Sembilan was a Malaysian patrol ship and the location of Sandakan is shown in this map.

Imagine PAF jets could then buzz a Malaysian patrol ship near the shoreline of Sabah! 

How things changed since those days in 1968 when the SND, Cavalier Voltaire Gazmin, Class of 1968, was a fresh graduate of PMA! 

MALAYSIA POLICE

 

MALAYSIA COAST GUARD

 

Let’s look at Indonesia, the largest country in our region:

INDONESIA ARMY

INDONESIA NAVY

INDONESIA AIR FORCE

INDONESIA POLICE

INDONESIA COAST GUARD

And finally let’s look at Singapore, with a population of around 5.4 million, around 1/20th of our 100 million population:

SINGAPORE ARMY

 

SINGAPORE NAVY

SINGAPORE AIR FORCE

 

SINGAPORE POLICE

SINGAPORE COAST GUARD

With 72,000 regular soldiers and 500,000 in reserve, 196 Leopard tanks, 18 HIMARS, 400 modern howitzers, six stealth frigates, six corvettes, 151 fighter jets, many of them block 52 F-16s, which country would dare invade tiny Singapore?

 

I don’t need to show the Philippines’ Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and Coast Guard assets to make a comparison. We all know that. 

How do you feel? Envious? Low morale?

But it wasn’t like that before. We compared well with them decades ago.

Now let me take you to a trip back to 1966, the year I entered PMA, the year i entered Annapolis, with big dreams about a career in the service and about the country, just like all of you at the time you entered the Academy.

Let’s look at the economic situation in 1966 in terms of GDP per capita for the Philippines compared to other countries, and see how things changed four years after, in 1970, the year I graduated. I am using data from the World Bank.

PER CAPITA GDP, 1966 – 1970

In 1966, Philippine GDP per capita was double that of China, almost four times that of Indonesia, and 55% higher than South Korea’s.  Singapore and Malaysia were already way ahead.

In 1970, after four years, China was still behind.  But Indonesia was able to catch up.  And Korea overtook the Philippines!

 

PER CAPITA GDP, 1966 and 1970

Let’s fast forward from 1971 to 1979:

PER CAPITA GDP, 1971 – 1979

During the 70s, China remained way behind the Philippines.  In fact our GDP per capita went up from around double to more than three times China’s GDP per capita.  But Indonesia emerged slightly ahead already.  

South Korea’s continued to rise with a GDP per capita 3 times bigger by 1979.

 

PER CAPITA GDP, 1971 and 1979

1980 to 1989:

PER CAPITA GDP, 1980 – 1989:

During the 80s, China remained behind the Philippines but the gap narrowed.  Indonesia’s economy fell with the Pertamina scandal.  Singapore, which was just around three times our per capita GDP, shot up to more than 10 times our per capita GDP.  And South Korea, from a little over twice the Philippine GDP per capita, zoomed to around 8 times our per capita GDP.  This was the decade when South Korea hosted the 1988 Seoul Olympics, less than 20 years after 1970 when I graduated, when South Korea was one of the basket cases of Asia. I was elected congressman in 1992, around 23 years ago. How I wish the Philippines went through the same dramatic transformation, or even just half, during that period!

 

PER CAPITA GDP, 1980 and 1989:

1990 to 1999:

PER CAPITA GDP, 1990 – 1999:

During the 90s, when our relatively young emcees Cavalier Salgado ’95 and Cavalier Santiago ’97 entered PMA and graduated, China’s GDP per capita started at less than half of the Philippine GDP per capita, but rose dramatically by 1999. Indonesia continued to struggle, it’s GDP per capita was just around 60% of our GDP per capita.  Singapore’s lead widened, at already 21 times our per capita GDP.  And South Korea rose with  a  GDP per capita 10 times bigger than ours.

 

PER CAPITA GDP, 1990 and 1999

2000 to 2009:

PER CAPITA GDP, 2000 - 2009

2000 to 2009. This was the decade when China dramatically rose. From a per capita GDP lower than that of the Philippines in 2000, China went up to more than double that of the Philippines by 2009.  Indonesia, from being behind, overtook the Philippines. Singapore and Korea continued rising.

 

PER CAPITA GDP, 2000 and 2009

2010 to 2013:

PER CAPITA GDP, 2010 – 2013

And now in the present decade, China continued rising with a per capita GDP more than two times that of the Philippines.  Indonesia’s per capita GDP and economic power continued rising.

 

PER CAPITA GDP, 2000 and 2013

Did things change? The Philippines compared to the other countries?

Please see this chart to have a better perspective of how our economy performed compared the other countries.

PER CAPITA GDP, 1966 – 2013

And this will also better show how the comparative economic performance from 1966 to 2013, a period of 47 years, less than two generations:

From 1966 to 2013, increase in per capita:

Philippines 13.69X

China 66.08X

Japan 36.48X

Indonesia 63.1X

Malaysia 30.6X

Singapore 97.3X

South Korea 199.8X

Now are you still surprised why South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and tiny Singapore are light years ahead of us in defense and security capability? 

Say, you graduate at the same time. And after 40 years, your salary increased by 13 times and your classmate’s salary increased by 199 times. Or just 97 times. Or just 63 times. Or just 30 times. Who can buy a bigger house in a more secure, more peaceful community? Who can build a higher, stronger wall? Who can hire security guards for his or her family? Who can provide better peace and security for his or her family? Who can afford more lawyers to defend the family?

It’s not just the desire. But the purchasing power.

Look at China, a very poor country when I graduated in 1970, still a very poor country when our Outstanding Achievement Awardees Cavalier Catapang, Cavalier Millan, Cavalier Delgado and Cavalier Iriberri graduated in 1981, 1982 and 1983 and when our young emcees Cavalier Salgado and Cavalier Santiago graduated in 1995 and 1997, with a GDP per capita lower than that of the Philippines.

 

To illustrate, this was Shenzhen in 1981, a city near Hong Kong, 

very rural with a population of only around 30,000. This was the year when Cavalier Catapang graduated from PMA.

Now here’s Shenzhen today.  See how it got transformed from the time that Cavalier Gregorio Pio P Catapang, Jr graduated in 1981:

Nearly 10 million people live and work here, from only 30,000 rural folks in the 80s. Shenzhen has become a modern metropolis, a major manufacturing hub for the world. Not only did the population rise, not only did income per person soar, but also people’s lives clearly and fundamentally changed.

What’s the bottom line?

In 1992, a powerful political slogan was used in the US and it won the election: It’s the economy, stupid! No, I won’t say that. 

I will be more polite: IT’S THE ECONOMY, SIR! MA’M!

For example in external defense particularly the defense of our West Philippine Sea, we can debate what to use.

 

Whether more white ships for the Philippine Coast Guard.

Or stealth frigates for the Navy:

 

And multirole fighters for the Air Force:

Or go asymmetric with land-based missiles:

And small missile boats:

The bottom line is still: How can we increase our national purchasing power? What can we afford?

How big is our economy?

So whose fault is it that we have fallen behind? Our Presidents? Cabinet? The economic managers? Congress? Businessmen? AFP? Police? Local governments? The people? Us?

Let’s not go into a bitter blame game. Like we shouldn’t blame our parents for our failed dreams.

Let’s look forward. 

I say we have to double time on our economy. 

Last January 4, the Central Bank Governor was our Rotary Club of Manila Guest Speaker and he announced our economy would grow by 7-8% this year. That would keep us among the region’s strongest economies. 

Where would a 7-8% growth take us? The Rule of 70 of economists says you divide 70 by the growth rate and that’s how long it would take the economy to double.

So if we sustain that 7-8% growth rate, our economy would double in 8 to 10 years. That is still a long way from growing 66 times like China or 63 times like Indonesia or 97 times like Singapore or 199 times like South Korea.

But that would be good growth nonetheless, better than in most of the past 47 years since 1966.

It’s the economy, sir, ma’m, and we all have a shared responsibility. The AFP and the Police to make the peace and order situation more conducive to economic growth. 

We still have an extreme poverty rate of around 20% and most of that extreme poverty is happening in areas where there is insurgency and there is insurgency in those areas because the economy there is bad. A vicious cycle that we must overcome.  According to the UN, extreme poverty means an income of $1.25 per day or less than P60 per day. Around 20 million Filipinos are extremely poor.

During my 18 years in Congress, I asked the leaders of the AFP and the Police to justify their budget in terms of how every peso of their budget can help grow the economy. Not just by protecting the peace. Not just by protecting our vital economic installations. But through employment generation. And as a major buyer of locally made goods, equipment and services. 

The Coast Guard is there to protect our vital economic assets in the seas: People, ships and their cargoes and of course the seas as vast economic resources. 

We should ask all public officials from the President to every cabinet member, down to the bureau and division levels, not just the so-called Economic Team like NEDA, DBM, DOF, to all become economic managers, always mindful of how their policies and projects and decisions help boost or stunt the economy.  We are all economic managers in our own way.  Studies of the World Bank, the UN and the academe have shown how education, health, infrastructures, social welfare, environment, local governance, etc., impact the economy. And vice versa.

We Cavaliers, whatever our status now, have a role to play. Whether former President. Generals, Admirals, brand new lieutenants and ensigns. Active or retired. Senators. Congressmen. Cabinet members. Governors. Mayors. Big businessmen and the small entrepreneurs. Managers. 

Cavaliers are all over, in all human endeavors that impact the economy.

Many of us are in business, many have become captains of industries, entrepreneurs and should work hard to help make the Philippines more globally competitive. 

Cavaliers know the meaning of competitiveness more than many folks. We made it to PMA through competitive exams, not because of a gift. We made it through the Academy by competing hard.

The economy is growing  but it’s not growing fast enough. We have two high growth areas: OFWs and BPOs and I know many Cavaliers are in that field. Some are even OFWs. Some are ICT experts and ICT entrepreneurs.

We now take pride in being the number four largest shipbuilding country of the world.

But that’s not enough. We need to catch up fast. We need to tell our leaders and ourselves to dream bigger and move faster. We have to double time!

The average GDP per capita of the world is around $12,000. Ours is less than $3,000 as of 2013. We are still a long way to go to become just average.

And each Cavalier in this hall and those outside must do his and her share to lead in the quest for lasting peace and security by addressing the larger, deeper issue, the very reason why we are behind in peacekeeping and security assets:  IT’S THE ECONOMY, SIR, MA’AM!  

We must all help to dramatically and spectacularly boost our economy the way our neighbor countries did to catapult them to the economic, military, peace and security heights that they are in now, which heights we envy so much. 

So that like Singapore, we can have a better life and be able to buy six stealth frigates, six corvettes, 151 fighter jets, many of them block 52 F-16s, many land-based missiles and many small missile boats and tell China to scram and get out of our West Philippine Sea!

 

Let that envy be a reason not to grieve lost chances and past failures, but to motivate us to wake up and do better this time.

DOUBLE TIME CAVALIERS!  
WAKE UP PHILIPPINES! DOUBLE TIME PHILIPPINES!

Thank you!