China economy projection for 2015

Cheap Oil And Deflation - Made In China: Global Economics And Markets Outlook Q1 2015 

Feb. 7, 2015 9:26 AM ET | by Alpha Now at Thomson Reuters | includes: fxi, pgj, yinn, gxc, fxp, yang, mchi, xpp, yao, yxi, chxf, fca, cn

Summary

• China is central to our forecast. The risk of a Chinese hard landing has been a feature of our forecasts for over a year.
• In our judgment, those risks have crystallised, so a hard landing in China is now our central scenario. We don't take the official Chinese GDP statistics at face value.
• According to our own measure of Chinese growth, which uses rail freight, electricity production and bank lending, the economy may be growing at less than 4%.
• And we think it has further to fall.

By Philip Lachowycz

Both Sir John Gieve and Shamik Dhar were generally in agreement that China was slowing, although Shamik Dhar felt that there was some positive news on supply side reform. Sir John felt that the CMI was particularly important because of the poor quality of the official data and the difficultly that creates in forecasting Chinese output. Indeed, he described the CMI has "an ingenious way round that" issue.