Thursday, February 26, 2015

China’s Neighbors Bulk Up Militaries


The Wall Street Journal
ASIA NEWS

China’s Neighbors Bulk Up Militaries

Despite Beijing’s efforts to cool tensions, many nations prepare for potential conflict 

Russian-made submarine arrives at Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay in 2014.ENLARGE
Russian-made submarine arrives at Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay in 2014. PHOTO: XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
By 
11 COMMENTS

MANILA—China’s neighbors are moving forward with the modernization of their militaries with new fighter jets, submarines and other hardware, even as Beijing has tried to tamp down territorial tensions in the region.

The military buildup is an indication that many Asian countries see little reason to adjust their long-term preparations for potential friction with China, despite Beijing’s diplomatic and economic charm offensive.

China made a dramatic shift in its diplomatic approach at a summit in Beijing in November, adopting a more conciliatory tone. This included the first face-to-face meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe since both took power in 2012.

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That came after China pledged to invest billions in regional ports and infrastructure, with great potential benefits for its neighbors. 

Many Asian nations are participating in those programs or receiving other Chinese aid. But underlying sources of tension haven’t gone away.

It has only been half a year since Vietnamese and Chinese vessels were jostling off islands claimed by both countries after China parked a giant oil rig there. A few months after that, Indian and Chinese troops tussled for weeks in the Himalayas along the countries’ disputed border. 

Vietnam recently received the third of six new Russian submarines, valued at about $2 billion in total—a landmark for a country that has never had submarines. It also ordered six Russian frigates and is increasing the size of its Sukhoi fighter-jet fleet to 36 planes.

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Smaller nations like Vietnam don’t expect to seriously challenge China’s military, but want to make China think twice before pressing claims.

“At the minimum we have to decrease China’s ability to act with impunity,” a Philippine defense official said, recalling China’s 2012 capture of the disputed Scarborough Shoal.

A Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Vietnam’s military programs weren’t aimed specifically at China. “The purchase of defense equipment is a normal practice of all countries in the world,” said Nguyen Thi Thai Thong. 

Better-equipped countries, such as India and Japan, want China to respect them as military equals. 

India is establishing a new mountain corps for deployment along its Himalayan boundaries. It is also testing ballistic missiles with a range of over 3,000 miles, which could strike inside China. In January, India test-fired one of the missiles from a mobile launcher for the first time at an island off its northeastern coast. 

BULKING UP

Asian nations are making big investments in new military hardware. Some of the latest purchases (with seller in parentheses):

INDIA

  • 126 Rafale fighter jets (France) 
  • 22 AH-64E Apache gunships (U.S.) 
  • 8 P-8I Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft (U.S.)

INDONESIA

  • 3 Chang Bogo-class submarines (South Korea) 
  • 24 F-16 fighter jets (U.S.) 
  • 16 Sukhoi Su-27/Su-30 jets (Russia) 
  • 8 AH-64E Apache gunships (U.S.) 

JAPAN

  • 4 helicopter carriers (Japan) 
  • 42 F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters (U.S)
  • 17 V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft (U.S.) 

MALAYSIA

  • 2 Scorpene submarines (France) 
  • 6 Gowind-class frigates (France) 

PHILIPPINES

  • 12 FA-50 fighter/trainer jets (South Korea) 
  • 2 Hamilton-class cutters (U.S.)

VIETNAM

  • 6 Kilo-class submarines (Russia) 
  • 6 Gepard-class frigates (Russia)
  • 36 Sukhoi Su-30 jets (Russia)

Tokyo is setting up Japan’s first amphibious operations unit to defend East China Sea islands contested by China and is adding 42 F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters. Japan is increasing its defense budget by 2% in the fiscal year starting April 1.

China continues to outpace its neighbors in military spending—its military budget has grown around 10% annually for the past two decades.

The U.S. has encouraged its allies in Asia, particularly Japan, to build up military capability, which takes some pressure off Washington itself and also creates markets for U.S. weaponry.

India’s military hardware paraded before President Barack Obama in New Delhi in January included a Boeing Co. P-8I antisubmarine-warfare plane and Lockheed Martin C-130J transport aircraft, which could help rush troops and equipment to India’s Himalayan boundary with China.

Vietnam is poised to receive American surveillance aircraft and other systems as Washington and Hanoi improve diplomatic ties.

The U.S. partially lifted a long-standing arms embargo on Vietnam last October.

Still, a stronger Vietnamese military isn’t likely to deter any future moves by Beijing. 

China has been “disconcerted” by Vietnam’s modernization plans, said Tim Huxley, executive director of IISS-Asia, a Singapore-based security think tank. But Zhang Baohui, a politics professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, said China is confident of its military superiority over the Vietnamese. 

“The buildup of the weaker party won’t much motivate the stronger party,” he said. 

Despite complaints from South China Sea neighbors, China continues to reclaim land to build new bases in disputed waters. Last month, Philippine officials said a new island capable of supporting a large Chinese airstrip at Fiery Cross Reef in the contested Spratly Islands was “50% complete.”

Vietnam showed that it, too, remains wary of Chinese activities in contested seas, joining Manila in denouncing Beijing’s land-reclamation projects. Pham Binh Minh, Vietnam’s deputy prime minister, visited Manila in late January for talks about upgrading the two countries’ security ties, partly to help block China’s regional expansion. 

China says it has “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratlys and the waters around them. “The relevant construction and maintenance that the Chinese government does on them are China’s legitimate rights,” the Defense Ministry said. 

China has long argued that military modernization is normal. But Beijing has criticized Japan for easing restrictions on its Self-Defense Forces, saying Tokyo is “deliberately fabricating the China threat.” In 2013, after Tokyo launched its second helicopter carrier, China said it was “concerned over Japan’s constant expansion of its military equipment.” 

Beijing spent five times more on defense than the ten Southeast Asian countries combined in 2013, according to Sipri, a Swedish security institute, with investments in stealth planes, aircraft carriers and other cutting-edge capabilities. 

Meanwhile, its neighbors are also bulking up. The Philippines ordered a dozen Korean fighter jets valued at $410 million, and has earmarked $1.8 billion for new hardware over the next two years, including naval frigates.

Malaysia is in the market for new fighter jets and has recently received its first pair of submarines, bought from France for roughly $2.2 billion. Indonesia has plans to station newly purchased Korean submarines and U.S. Apache gunships near islands it deems vulnerable to Chinese encroachment.

China isn’t the only reason Asian countries are spending more on defense, of course. In Southeast Asia especially, countries have long had weak militaries in need of new equipment just to keep operating. Many of them have their own rivalries as well.

But taken together, the latest spending could just wind up raising the risks of a deadly confrontation if tensions worsen. 

Some experts say stronger militaries elsewhere could change the strategic calculus for Beijing eventually, possibly making it more willing to negotiate settlements. “The last thing China wants is to surround itself with modern, capable militaries,” said Richard Javad Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in Manila. As its neighbors upgrade militarily, “China is bound to face greater risks of unwanted escalation and resistance.”

—Yuka Hayashi contributed to this article.

Write to Trefor Moss at Trefor.Moss@wsj.com

There are 11 comments.
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Douglas Levene

Given the tensions between China and Vietnam, and China's aggressive actions to asset sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, I predict that Vietnam will give the US navy basing rights at Cam Ranh Bay within the next few years.


Cap Morgan

We haven't heard from the kook in North Korea in a few months. What's he up to?


David Riehm

@Cap Morgan Well, the annual joint military exercises conducted by the US and South Korea are due to start up next month, so I think we can expect some North Korean saber-rattling soon.


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