CHINA BLINKED, BUT FOR HOW LONG? By Roilo Golez, Former Philippine National Security Adviser

CHINA BLINKED, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

By Roilo Golez, Former Philippine National Security Adviser

The Freedom of Navigation Operation of the USS Lassen deep inside seas illegally claimed by China is an act of a country confident of its naval superiority in the area. China's lack of its usual assertiveness and bully tactics shows it accepts its military inferiority to the hegemon and that it subscribes to the principle of: "Prudence is the better part of valor."

China blinked.

The US gave enough warning about this sail by. It wasn't a sneak sortie. I surmise that the US gave China sufficient time, around two weeks, to mobilize its assets in the area, like the usual white ships, to try to stop the announced Freedom of Navigation run. The message  was, "I am coming, stop me if you can." But China did not. It just deployed a 052C class destroyer and a patrol ship to shadow from a safe distance the USS Lassen.

That the USS Lassen proceeded alone projects confidence and, with a P-8 in the area, good intelligence of China's lack of naval assets in the area.

Later, the US tried to downplay the USS Lassen's sortie as routine and did not gloat. Sec. Carter even hesitated to talk about it in the Senate hearing conducted right after the sail by. I guess the objective is not to unnecessarily rile China and an already agitated and angry public who must have been brainwashed to believe China's navy could already manhandle the US Navy. 

Notwithstanding that, I believe the international impression is that China blinked because it did not behave the way China does in the face of flimsy Philippine and Vietnamese fishing boats that enter their illegally claimed features in the South China Sea. China shrilly protested but took no other action in the face of the hegemon.

What can we expect now? The US already announced that there will be more of these freedom of navigation patrols. And if the Chinese navy continues to exercise the same prudence, expect the Chinese public to become more agitated and start cajoling their leadership to take stronger action. 

It could lead to either of two things: Continued inaction by the Chinese leadership could be destabilizing. But responding forcefully to US patrols as demanded by their public could lead to a dangerous face-off. 

On the other hand, if the US relents, it would diminish them in the eyes of their allies. The US has no choice but to increase the pressure, sustain the initiative they just seized and prevent the militarization of the artificial islands.