Duturte should be cautious of game playing between major powers
By Chen Qinghong Source:Global Times Published: 2016/8/22 23:53:39
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
The new Philippine government has attracted a great deal of attention from the international community recently. President Rodrigo Duterte's recent comments on the country's foreign relations puzzled observers, and the Japanese media complained that his ambuiguity on the South China Sea issue is tough for Japan and the US to cope with.
After readjusting his predecessor's foreign policies, Duterte has gained an advantage in foreign activities and has become a leader that other countries are competing to court. For instance, the US sent Kristie Kenney, counselor and former ambassador to the Philippines, to meet Duterte in July, one week before Duter was sworn in and just before the South China Sea arbitration award was announced.
In late July, US Secretary of State John Kerry went to Manila right after the ASEAN Regional Forum and reiterated the significance of the US-Philippine alliance. He pledged a $32 million fund to Manila.
Japan, another country that is eager to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, has devoted tremendous efforts to woo the Philippines as well. During his visit to Davao City earlier this month, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida urged the Philippines to stay firm on the South China Sea arbitration award. And Japan announced a $2.4 billion loan to finance the Philippines' railway projects and delivered the first of 10 coast guard vessels that Japan pledged four years ago to the Philippines. It also hinted that Tokyo would offer more aids.
But different from his predecessor Benigno Aquino III, Duterte doesn't want to be a pawn or proxy of the US and Japan to help advance their Asia-Pacific strategies. He is a calculating, sharp-sighted and canny politician who thinks independently. Duterte has not been tricked by the US and Japan into regarding China as a threat, and instead sees it as a country that can talk and cooperate with. Duterte sent former president Fidel Ramos as his special envoy to China earlier this month to remedy the tense Sino-Philippine relationship, which has created a friendly environment for peaceful negotiations between the two countries.
The new Philippine president has a better understanding of the intervention of the US and Japan in the South China Sea disputes. The intensity of the territorial disputes between China and the Philippines is closely linked to the intervention by these countries, which use the Philippines as a chess piece to realize their Asia-Pacific strategies.
Duterte sees the needs of his country differently from his predecessor. Grave corruption, poor public security, underdeveloped infrastructure and relentless riots are eroding the Philippines' business environment and restricting its economic development. A priority for Duterte is to take advantage of various domestic and foreign factors, including major-power competition, to help build a clean environment and boost economic development.
Yet it is tough for Duterte's government to strike a balance among major powers. On the one hand, the US and Japan may not tolerate Duterte's ambiguous attitude on the South China Sea issue in the long run, and are highly alert of the potential thawing in the Sino-Philippine relationship.
Conor Cronin, a research associate with the Southeast Asia Program at Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently criticized Duterte's domestic and foreign policies in his article. He warned that "if they continue, it is possible that when Congress returns from its recess in early September, some leaders will raise questions about Washington's sizable military and economic assistance to the Philippines."
On the other hand, if Duterte leans toward the US and Japan and continues to make trouble in the South China Sea as his predecessor did, he will undoubtedly face countermeasures from China. This will be of no help to settle the disputes, but instead will result in continuous unrest in the region and jeopardize the regional landscape that the Philippines relies on to realize a clean government and economic development. It is also possible that if Duterte is obsessed with playing the balancing game, he may invite joint countermeasures from major powers. Anyway, this is no easy thing for Duterte.
Diplomacy is not a trick, but an art of wisdom that relevant parties cope with disputes sincerely and go for peace and win-win result. Can Duterte play the South China Sea game well? This remains to be seen.
The author is a research assistant from the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies under the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion
After readjusting his predecessor's foreign policies, Duterte has gained an advantage in foreign activities and has become a leader that other countries are competing to court. For instance, the US sent Kristie Kenney, counselor and former ambassador to the Philippines, to meet Duterte in July, one week before Duter was sworn in and just before the South China Sea arbitration award was announced.
In late July, US Secretary of State John Kerry went to Manila right after the ASEAN Regional Forum and reiterated the significance of the US-Philippine alliance. He pledged a $32 million fund to Manila.
Japan, another country that is eager to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, has devoted tremendous efforts to woo the Philippines as well. During his visit to Davao City earlier this month, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida urged the Philippines to stay firm on the South China Sea arbitration award. And Japan announced a $2.4 billion loan to finance the Philippines' railway projects and delivered the first of 10 coast guard vessels that Japan pledged four years ago to the Philippines. It also hinted that Tokyo would offer more aids.
But different from his predecessor Benigno Aquino III, Duterte doesn't want to be a pawn or proxy of the US and Japan to help advance their Asia-Pacific strategies. He is a calculating, sharp-sighted and canny politician who thinks independently. Duterte has not been tricked by the US and Japan into regarding China as a threat, and instead sees it as a country that can talk and cooperate with. Duterte sent former president Fidel Ramos as his special envoy to China earlier this month to remedy the tense Sino-Philippine relationship, which has created a friendly environment for peaceful negotiations between the two countries.
The new Philippine president has a better understanding of the intervention of the US and Japan in the South China Sea disputes. The intensity of the territorial disputes between China and the Philippines is closely linked to the intervention by these countries, which use the Philippines as a chess piece to realize their Asia-Pacific strategies.
Duterte sees the needs of his country differently from his predecessor. Grave corruption, poor public security, underdeveloped infrastructure and relentless riots are eroding the Philippines' business environment and restricting its economic development. A priority for Duterte is to take advantage of various domestic and foreign factors, including major-power competition, to help build a clean environment and boost economic development.
Yet it is tough for Duterte's government to strike a balance among major powers. On the one hand, the US and Japan may not tolerate Duterte's ambiguous attitude on the South China Sea issue in the long run, and are highly alert of the potential thawing in the Sino-Philippine relationship.
Conor Cronin, a research associate with the Southeast Asia Program at Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently criticized Duterte's domestic and foreign policies in his article. He warned that "if they continue, it is possible that when Congress returns from its recess in early September, some leaders will raise questions about Washington's sizable military and economic assistance to the Philippines."
On the other hand, if Duterte leans toward the US and Japan and continues to make trouble in the South China Sea as his predecessor did, he will undoubtedly face countermeasures from China. This will be of no help to settle the disputes, but instead will result in continuous unrest in the region and jeopardize the regional landscape that the Philippines relies on to realize a clean government and economic development. It is also possible that if Duterte is obsessed with playing the balancing game, he may invite joint countermeasures from major powers. Anyway, this is no easy thing for Duterte.
Diplomacy is not a trick, but an art of wisdom that relevant parties cope with disputes sincerely and go for peace and win-win result. Can Duterte play the South China Sea game well? This remains to be seen.
The author is a research assistant from the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies under the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion
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