How do you manage a partner like Duterte?

How do you manage a partner like Duterte?

President Duterte showing photos of the Bud Dajo Massacre (Photo: PPD/Rey Baniquet)

President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines once again roiled the region’s foreign policy establishment by suggesting a significant shift in Manila’s engagement with Washington. On Monday he said that U.S. Special Forces combatting terrorist groups in the southern island of Mindanao “have to go.” The next day he also announced that joint patrols with the U.S. in the South China Sea would end and hinted at buying arms from China and Russia. Later on Tuesday Duterte revealed that he had declined China’s offer to provide him a plane for personal use. The next day Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, welcoming these developments, remarked that relations between the two countries “are at a new turning point.”

Statements from other Philippine officials, however, seemed to belie some of these assertions. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, for example, told the Philippine House Appropriations Committee that American soldiers are still needed in Mindanao and that the Philippines “will maintain the status quo in the West Philippine Sea.” He insisted that the U.S.-Philippines relationship is “rock solid,” yet also noted that President Duterte will “talk with others who can give us quality equipment to strengthen our defense.” Presidential Spokesperson Ernesto Abella later clarified that Duterte’s statements were not “policies set in stone” and “could be interpreted in several ways.”

These conflicting statements have confoundedgovernment officials and scholars alike. ASEAN leaders reportedly sat “quiet and shocked” as Duterte set aside a speech affirming the Philippines’ maritime rights and instead delivered an indictment of U.S. military action at last week’s summit. Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop asked Duterte to clarify what the Philippines would do to support the arbitral tribunal’s decision after he declared that the Philippines would not patrol waters beyond its territorial sea. Some pundits have traced Duterte’s behavior to the fact that he is “not a fan” of the United States and his desire to chart a more independent foreign policy for the Philippines. Whatever the reason, Andrew Erickson and Ja Ian Chong argue that the U.S. must think critically about how to manage more ambivalent partners like President Duterte.