Rodrigo Duterte Throws a Grenade in Washington’s China Strategy
Philippine leader’s rant represents another headache for the U.S. from an Asian ally
After his rant at the U.S., Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte won’t be meeting with President Obama in Vientiane, Laos. PHOTO: REUTERS
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SHANGHAI—In the Philippines, popular views of America veer between affection and pained resentment, rooted in a brutal colonial past; American conquering forces pioneered waterboarding in the country more than a hundred years ago.
Something of this history is captured in an epithet used by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, which cost him a meeting with Mr. Obama at a meeting of Asian leaders in Laos this week: putang ina in Tagalog -- “son of a bitch,” or more literally “son of a whore.” He was furious at suggestions that Mr. Obama would bring up his war on drugs, in which hundreds of dealers and users have been slain by police and vigilantes, as a human rights violation.
This kind of language is par for the course for Mr. Duterte, who’s famous at home—even loved—for his expletive-laden bluntness. He tossed the same insult at the pope.
Only the timing came as a surprise. It might seem foolhardy to offend your No. 1 protector and arms supplier when, as an archipelagic nation with a barely credible navy, Chinese armadas are pressing in.
This isn’t the first time that America has found itself exasperated with a populist politician at the helm of a close Asian ally. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, created enormous headaches for Mr. Obama early in his tenure by visiting the Yasukuni war shrine in Tokyo, where Class A war criminals are honored, enraging China.
But whereas Mr. Obama’s challenge was to restrain Mr. Abe from going overboard in his provocations against China, with Mr. Duterte it’s the opposite: keeping him from getting too cozy.
Mr. Duterte is pushing a more independent foreign policy line that balances alliance commitments to the U.S. with a desire to restore ties with China that went into a deep freeze after his predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, launched a legal case in The Hague against China’s sweeping territorial claims to the South China Sea.
Mr. Duterte inherited a stunning legal win soon after taking office this year, but he seems unsure what to do with it.
He could insist that he will only negotiate with Beijing on the basis of the verdict of the arbitration panel at The Hague, which excoriated Beijing for building artificial islands in The Philippines exclusive economic zone. Or he could use the verdict as leverage in talks over sharing resources—fisheries and energy—off the Philippines coast. Or he could cave completely and set the verdict aside in hopes that this will unlock a wave of Chinese investment, particularly in his home region of Mindanao.
It’s hard to predict how Mr. Duterte, who later expressed regret for his rant, will proceed; China would love to snatch victory from defeat with a deal that makes the verdict virtually go away, though its hard-line diplomacy could turn Mr. Duterte into just as much of an adversary as Mr. Aquino.
As the longtime mayor of Davao City, say aides, Mr. Duterte never dealt with China but harbored deep anti-U.S. feelings dating from a mysterious bomb explosion in a local hotel in 2002. An American citizen was charged in that case but fled the country. Mr. Duterte smelled a CIA conspiracy.
In his outburst that scuppered his meeting with Mr. Obama, Mr. Duterte railed against America. The Philippines is not a “vassal state” or a “lap dog,” he said. “We have long ceased to be a colony.”
When America was building its alliance system in Asia during the Cold War, human rights weren’t much of a concern. Washington supported a procession of strongmen from Park Chung-hee in Korea to Chiang Ching-kuo in Taiwan and Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines.
But human rights are likely to be an acute and persistent irritant in U.S.-Philippine relations under Mr. Duterte. His war on drugs was his political signature in Davao, where he roared around the streets on a motorbike cradling a rifle. It is a wellspring of his national popularity today, and a deep source of legitimacy for a foul-mouthed leader who finds himself out of place among the Manila elites.
The U.S. is watching him warily. The Philippines is a key part of the U.S. “pivot” to Asia, aimed at pushing back against China’s building power: as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton launched the pivot on the deck of an American warship in Manila Bay. American forces, having been kicked out of Subic Bay naval base in 1992, a year after losing nearby Clark Air Force Base to a volcano, are now back in smaller numbers on a rotational basis.
Usefully for Washington, Mr. Duterte has a soft spot for Japan; Japanese businesses have poured investment into Davao. In Laos, Messrs. Abe and Duterte on Wednesday reached a deal for Japan to give the Philippines two patrol ships and lend it up to five surveillance planes. Some analysts see Japan playing a bridging role between Washington and Manila.
China will be watching the Abe-Duterte chemistry with consternation. For Washington, the best short-term hope may be a middle way between Mr. Abe’s tendencies to rile Beijing and Mr. Duterte’s to appease it.
Write to Andrew Browne at andrew.browne@wsj.com
