Friday, September 23, 2016

Roilo Golez extemporaneous speech, International Peace Day, IPCDI, 21 September 2016

Roilo  Golez extemporaneous speech , International Peace Day, IPCDI, 21 September 2016

Part 1

 

Thank you very much. First of all, I would like to thank the chairman of the IPDCI , Mr.  Reyron  del Rosario for being so kind to include me in this  very important program celebrating I nternational Peace Day, indeed very appropriate - P eace D iplomacy C onvention. I was asked to talk  about P eace D iplomacy and C onflict Resolution. Of course,  when it comes to  conflict, I cannot think of a ny other  place which is so close to home  than the conflict situation in the South  China Sea, in the West Philippine Sea,  where peace appears to be so elusive and conflict  appears to become more and  more complex and more and more complicated as each day transitions. 

 

You know in 1982 when the United  Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was approved, our representative there  [then ] Senator Arturo  Tolentinocame back very triumphantly announcing to us that we have  won extra territory - Exclusive Economic Zone. Imagine 200 nautical miles of seas, of natural resources, just like  the other coa stal states of the South  China Sea. And at that time , the country  was dreaming of how we will be able to exploit the natural resources  within living and non-living: oil, natural  gas, fish, other minerals that would convert the South China Sea, for us, into a zone of peace and a zone of prosperity. And things were so quiet for a while until in 1995, all of a sudden our Navy discovered that there was some kind of a structure built in Mischief Reef, well within our Exclusive Economic Zone and of course it was constructed by our giant  neighbour to the north. When we complained, that country said don't worry about it because this is only temporary; this is for shelter for our fishermen and even Filipino fishermen would be able to use it,  and things  quieted down with that statement of reassurance from that other country. But then in 1999, all of a sudden we discovered that there was a bigger structure being constructed there. I personally saw it when I overflew over the area. I was then a Congressman in the House of Representatives and saw that they 're constructing a much bigger and permanent structure. Again this resulted into a lot of  controversy, a  lot of strong statements being exchanged but things  quieted down because of the diplomatic exchange of reassurances  that we did.  This was followed by years of peace until in 2012. There was a seizure of another structure within also our Exclusive Economic Zone and this is Scarborough Shoal.  This resulted in several exchanges of complaints and effort to have a bilateral discussion. I was a member of the National Security  Council at the time when we attempted to have a bilateral talk with the other country, but unfortunately it could not be scheduled and they seized Scarborough Shoal and as a result  of that we had no choice but for the Philippine government to file a complaint before the Permanent Court of Arbitration, the arbitral tribunal. We sought the rule of  law, we followed a rules-based policy, a peaceful policy in order to  resolve this emerging conflict.  However, the other country immediately issued a statement that they are not going to accept or respect the ruling, expected ruling of the arbitral tribunal.  And true enough, on July 12 the PCA issued their decision awarding most of the requests of the Philippines on this  particular matter. But just to show you how elusive the peace situation was, just  to show you how complicated it was  becoming, on  the eve of the decision of  the arbitral tribunal, the other country conducted a live fire exercise in the  area,  which a lot of people including, of course, including the Philippine government considers a very hostile act of the other country.  And then right after the ruling of the arbitral tribunal, again to further complicate the complex situation, they deployed a strategic bomber  and b uzzedScarborough Shoal, again sending a very strong and very complex message.  Now, of course, the ruling of the arbitral tribunal came after the entrance of the  n ew administration  u nder President  Duterte , and in this particular case, the new President, including the  D epartment of Foreign Affairs ,  decided to take the sober and restraint option, which, in my thinking, is the appropriate approach, because we did not want to heat up the conflict situation.  And followed by th e President deploying, sending  a former  P resident of the Philippines, former  P resident Fidel V. Ramos, a known expert in the South China  S ea situation, in order to break the ice.   However, after the discussion there, what was   very disappointing is that the other party said ok we are willing to talk but we cannot accept the arbitral ruling as the basis for the discussion and at the same time we must insist that you, the Philippines, must accept that we have sovereignty in the area.  Because in this particular case, I'm sure you're   very familiar with the background, that what the other country is claiming is almost  eighty  percent  (80%)  of the Exclusive Economic   Zone that we thought UNCLOS awarded to the Philippines.  Imagine that, and  its  not only the Philippines affected but all the other   coastal states of the South China Sea. 

 

So, that is the situation now. Other countries have come into the picture as  intermediators You know in a conflict situation, it is always best that there must be a mediator.  Some had volunteered, for example the EU, United States, Japan, Australia, the G7 countries, gave strong statements that the ruling of the arbitral  tribunal must be respected; that the rule of law must be respected, because how can you resolve this conflict, for   example, it cannot be done by  the use of force or by the threat of the use of force.  In the first place, the Philippines is  a  peaceful country. We have a Constitution  that has enshrined the use of peace as  a matter of resolving conflict. We are facing a country that is a hundred, ten  times bigger in population and probably a thousand times bigger in terms of  military force. So we sought, we have opted for the course of peace in order to resolve this conflict. But ladies and gentlemen, my fellow speakers in this  conference, the situation has gone beyond the  Philippines, because right now we're not talking only of the West Philippine Sea,  we  are not talking only of the South China  Sea, but now the problem, its extent has extended up to be East China Sea because right now it is not just the South China Sea conflict situation it is a Pacific conflict situation and, in fact, it is becoming an Indo-Pacific conflict situation. Look at the forces that are starting to converge in the area. A lot  of  people, the other countries are worried that if the South China Sea is going to be constricted, it is going to affect  their  Se a Lines of  Communication.  It is going to affect their commerce and trade. Five (5) Billion dollars worth of trade passes through the South China Sea, and it is very crucial to the economy of Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the  Philippines, Japan, South  Korea, and, of course, the other players  like India and the United States. 

 

So what we are seeing now is the confluence of forces that are not small, that are big probably the biggest military forces there are in the entire world. India  has come into the picture  because India would like to have a project in the Vietnam area.  And India, the US including Japan just completed their Malabar exercise. The United States  deployed for the first time, in so  many years, a two-year aircraft carrier exercise , again to  deliver a message. And just a few days

ago , China and Russia conducted a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea, maybe a little up north.   

 

But in the East China  Sea, it is also equally alarming . In fact, if you ask me, as a former National Security Adviser, I am more worried  about the conflict situation there. That is a little far from the Philippines but will affect us here also and probably even the  entire world because the in the East China  Sea, we are talking of Japan and China, with the Air Force, and you know how  many  scramblings  there are in a year? More than 600 fighter plane  scramblings in the area.  More than in any  other area and if there is a miscalculation, that would break into a real flashpoint. 

 

So, and then there are two red lines that have been announced already: the first red line,  because the other powers are worried, that Scarborough Shoal is going to be militarized. You are all aware that  seven (7) artificial islands have been constructed; one, inside our Exclusive Economic Zone, the others, very close to our Exclusive Economic Zone, seven (7) of them, and three (3) of them are about to be militarized already - Mischief Re ef, Subi  Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef.  And if they are militarized, people are  worried that this is going to restrict the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, especially if construction is  going to be  conducted in Scarborough Shoal. So an announcement was made by the other powers that "look, that is going to be considered a red line if construction will be done in Scarborough Shoal , which is well within the Exclusive Economic Zone." Japan announced that they're going to participate in a joint training cruise inside the South China Sea with the United States. The other country said  that is a red line. If Japan will do that, we might be able to  the, that is going to complicate so many situation. 

 

So that is how the situation is now. It is very good that we have a President now that has open diplomatic channels. Before, it was very complicated because the previous President closed the diplomatic channels and understandably so because the other country refused to talk about it.  They talked about a bilateral  situation but they would not want to schedule  the bilateral talks. And one requirement to start a bilateral talk is that we, the Philippines, should accept their  sovereignty in the claims that they have made inside our Exclusive Economic Zone. So that is a situation that is  totally unacceptable. In other words, it is a conflict situation that cannot be  resolved because one requirement is not acceptable to the other. Both requirements are not acceptable to both parties in the conflict situation .

 

But again, I'm very happy that  there's some very positive developments. As we speak today, there is a Track 2 effort consisting of former ambassadors of the Philippines, military officers, cabinet members, who have gone to  China in order to start a Track 2 discussion. Informal, but it is going to further break the ice.

 

So my fellow delegates here in this Peace Convention, I think what we need to do, this cannot be resolved by the  Philippines alone, this cannot be resolved by China alone, it must be  resolved as a multilateral ..  (to  be continued)



 

So my fellow delegates here in this Peace Convention, I think what we need to do, this cannot be resolved by the  Philippines alone, this cannot be resolved by China alone, it must be  resolved as a multilateral ..  (to  be continued)

 

effort It must be resolved by countries entering the picture not as active p articipants or as participants that would further complicate  a  complex conflict s ituation, but as mediators.  

 

And I think if we  know how to pray, we pray to whoever our  Gods are, and pray that things qui et down, and so celebrate this International Peace Day, let us  include the situation  here because this is a very complicated situation. A conflict  situation that will affect  not only the Philippines ,  it will affect not only the South China Sea.  As an expert in security,  it is my belief that it can have the potential  effect of complicating the situation  not only in the South China Sea but the entire Indo-Pacific area and probably the entire world . Thank you very much.

 

 

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