Duterte dumps the US: What could be lost?
Story highlights
- Four million US citizens are of Philippine ancestry
- Philippines is key US ally in South China Sea dispute
(CNN)The Philippines has long been the United States' staunchest ally in Asia. But for how much longer?
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, on his first state visit to China, announced that he would be cutting "military, not maybe social, but economics also" ties with the US.
Duterte didn't provide details about how he'd break away from the US, a major trading partner, or what the separation could entail.
But if he makes good on his pledge, it could have huge ramifications for the two countries and the balance of power in the wider region.
Here's what's at stake.
People
The Philippines is a former US colony and an estimated four million US citizens are of Philippine ancestry.
The US accounts for roughly a third of the $17.6 billion that Filipinos working overseas have sent home this year.
Remittances from many of these people to families in the Philippines are often economic lifelines, and significant contributors to local economies throughout the country.
And it cuts both ways -- there are more than 220,000 US citizens living in the Philippines, including a large number of US veterans.
The Philippines is also a big tourist destination for Americans -- an estimated 650,000 visit the country, with its world-class beaches, diving and adventure tourism, amongst many other draws, each year.
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Duterte made international headlines in April 2016 with his inflammatory comments on the 1989 rape and murder of an Australian missionary that took place in Davao City.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Foreign diplomats weighing in on Rodrigo Duterte's controversial remarks did not sit well with the then-mayor.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
He also lashed out at the womens' group that filed a complaint against him before the Commission on Human Rights (CHR).
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
At a CNN Philippines Townhall event in February 2016, Duterte, admitted that he had three girlfriends and a common-law wife. His marriage to Elizabeth Zimmerman was annulled due to his womanizing, but he denied this meant he objectified women.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Although he later denied the accusations, the former Davao City mayor admitted his links to the alleged Davao death squad in a May 2015 broadcast of his local television talk show.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Duterte apologized to the Pope after cursing him for the traffic he caused during a 2015 Papal visit to the Philippines.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
After US president Barack Obama said he would raise extrajudicial killings in a meeting with Duterte, the Philippines President responded angrily on September 5, first in English then in Tagalog. As a result, Obama canceled the meeting.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
As he addressed troops at the country's Armed Forces Central Command Headquarters on August 5, Duterte recounted U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's visit to the country, saying in Tagalog that he was feuding with U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines Philip Goldberg.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
The Philippines president-elect effectively said he supported vigilantism against drug dealers and criminals in a nationally televised speech in June 2016.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Speaking at a press conference to unveil his new cabinet on May 31 2016, Rodrigo Duterte said journalists killed on the job in the Philippines were often corrupt.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
During the third and last presidential debate, Duterte had said that he would plant a Philippine flag in disputed territories should China refuse to recognize a favorable ruling for the Philippines.
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Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Duterte made international headlines in April 2016 with his inflammatory comments on the 1989 rape and murder of an Australian missionary that took place in Davao City.
Hide Caption
6 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Foreign diplomats weighing in on Rodrigo Duterte's controversial remarks did not sit well with the then-mayor.
Hide Caption
7 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
He also lashed out at the womens' group that filed a complaint against him before the Commission on Human Rights (CHR).
Hide Caption
8 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
At a CNN Philippines Townhall event in February 2016, Duterte, admitted that he had three girlfriends and a common-law wife. His marriage to Elizabeth Zimmerman was annulled due to his womanizing, but he denied this meant he objectified women.
Hide Caption
9 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Although he later denied the accusations, the former Davao City mayor admitted his links to the alleged Davao death squad in a May 2015 broadcast of his local television talk show.
Hide Caption
10 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Duterte apologized to the Pope after cursing him for the traffic he caused during a 2015 Papal visit to the Philippines.
Hide Caption
11 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
After US president Barack Obama said he would raise extrajudicial killings in a meeting with Duterte, the Philippines President responded angrily on September 5, first in English then in Tagalog. As a result, Obama canceled the meeting.
Hide Caption
1 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
As he addressed troops at the country's Armed Forces Central Command Headquarters on August 5, Duterte recounted U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's visit to the country, saying in Tagalog that he was feuding with U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines Philip Goldberg.
Hide Caption
2 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
The Philippines president-elect effectively said he supported vigilantism against drug dealers and criminals in a nationally televised speech in June 2016.
Hide Caption
3 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Speaking at a press conference to unveil his new cabinet on May 31 2016, Rodrigo Duterte said journalists killed on the job in the Philippines were often corrupt.
Hide Caption
4 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
During the third and last presidential debate, Duterte had said that he would plant a Philippine flag in disputed territories should China refuse to recognize a favorable ruling for the Philippines.
Hide Caption
5 of 11
Photos: Rodrigo Duterte has said some outrageous things.
Duterte made international headlines in April 2016 with his inflammatory comments on the 1989 rape and murder of an Australian missionary that took place in Davao City.
Hide Caption
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Economy
According to the US State Department, over $25 billion in goods and services are traded between the US and the Philippines each year.
The country could lose up to $1.3 billion in foreign direct investments, not to mention more than $150 million in development aid if Duterte goes through with his threats to cut economic ties.
The US is the Philippines' third-largest trading partner after Japan and China.
"If relations with the US completely break down that would be a cause for concern, since there is a lot of US investment in the Philippines," Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, told CNN Money.
"A pivot to China wouldn't help, since China is a relatively smaller investor."
US companies have invested more than $4.7 billion in the Philippines. Duterte clearly hopes that China will more than make up any shortfall.
During his trip to Beijing, he signed 13 trade and economic agreements but details were thin on the ground on what benefits they would bring.
One concrete step was the lifting of a travel advisory cautioning Chinese citizens on visits to the Philippines. China's deputy foreign minister Liu Zhenmin said this would "greatly encourage" tourists.
Military
The split couldn't have come at a worse time for the US military. It is seeking bolster against Chinese territorial expansionism in the South China Sea.
Before Duterte's rise to power, the nation was expected to be a key ally in defending the maritime rights of a number of Southeast Asian nations embroiled in a long-running dispute with China.
Historically, there has been a large US military presence in the Philippines -- even the country's ubiquitous Jeepney buses were originally cobbled together from World War II-era American jeeps.
While there is no permanent US presence there these days -- that ended in 1992 -- the country had remained a stalwart ally and Duterte's predecessor, President Noynoy Aquino, signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) by executive order, allowing a limited and temporary US military presence in the country.
As recently as March of this year the US planned to re-create a permanent presence in the Philippines in five new bases.
The Visiting Forces Agreement or VFA, an older agreement, lays out conditions for the entry of US to the country. It would appear from Duterte's comments that he wants to scrap these agreements.
Duterte has previously indicated that he'll put an end to joint US-Philippines military drills, although his comments then indicated that the military alliance would remain intact.
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