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Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Taiwan scholars: East China Sea situation more dangerous than South China Sea 08 May 2013
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East China Sea situation more dangerous than South China Sea
08 May 2013 Scholars from Taiwan have maintained that Taipei will not engage in any kind of cooperation with Beijing over the ongoing maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
During a recent visit to Observer Research Foundation, an academic delegation from Taiwan discussed the US rebalance, economic linkages and tension in the East and South China Sea.
Initiating the discussion, the Taiwanese scholars put forward their view on the US rebalancing strategy. It was underlined that during the first term, President Obama’s rebalancing strategy was centred on a military dimension whereas his second term has more of an economic focus. The US will make good use of the economic orientation in the rebalancing strategy to set new norms, laws and regulations on old economic trade activities in the Asia Pacific. This is particularly true in regard to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Policy (TTIP) and Japan’s participation in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The Taiwanese scholars reaffirmed their interest in being a part of the TPP but also recognised the difficulty in getting past China on this matter. Even though there is political truce between Mainland China and Taiwan, Beijing has used its influence to suppress independent Taiwanese representation. China would usually seek some sort of political concession to let Taiwan be present for these dialogues.
The scholars felt it is better for Taiwan to set its sight at a US led TPP. It was recognised that Taiwan must manage to sign around five FTA deals and then approach the US to extend their economic assistance by allowing them to join the TPP. The Taiwanese scholars expressed their concern on whether India is willing to negotiate with Taiwan on the FTA. To this, senior faculty members said that India would not have a problem with Taiwan on the FTA but has its concerns regarding the same with China. In principle India does not have any problem and there will only be more collaboration and corporation. India has signed FTA deals with all SAARC countries except Pakistan and also with ASEAN. Therefore, such engagement with Taiwan will only be fruitful. The ambiguity surrounding the 1992 consensus and the one China policy was discussed as well. Scholars from both sides agreed on the lack of clarity on the one China policy between Mainland China and Taiwan. Ma Ying-jeou, the president of Taiwan has adopted a policy of "No unification, no independence and no use of force". Although China is not satisfied with Taiwan’s demeanour, Scholars underlined that China must understand that this is all that the Taipei government can offer at the moment. It was established that any form of political dialogue will only cause more harm so the priority at the moment is on strengthening Taiwan’s economic leverage. The Taiwanese scholars mentioned two important points that are crucial for Taipei in the current scenario. The first is setting up of representative offices to each other (China and Taiwan) and the second one is the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between China and Taiwan. The academic delegation said that achieving these two goals would be a milestone in the cross strait relations. There are four more agreements to be negotiated within the ECFA framework and Taiwan is hopeful to sign two of them by the end of this year. Moving on to the ongoing maritime dispute in the South and East China Sea, scholars underlined that the issue of sovereignty is at the core of the entire turmoil. Taiwanese scholars argued that the recent escalation is because of an attempt to change the present status quo. Scholars said that Japan’s move to nationalise three islands in the Senkaku (Diaoyu in Chinese) chain of islands is an attempt by the Tokyo government to change the current status quo.
The scholars also said that the situation in the East China Sea is more dangerous as there have been no noticeable dialogue so far. Taiwanese scholars also pointed out to a pattern adopted by Beijing to deal with maritime disputes. China initially sends their fishing vessels to a disputed area, followed by their law and enforcement vessels strongly supported by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This pattern was well demonstrated in the 2012 Scarborough Shoal incident. It was underlined that it is difficult to solve sovereignty issues and after a point it hits a dead end as neither party wants to compromise. However, nations should be willing to share the resources - the reason why Taiwan has negotiated a fishing agreement with Japan. Taiwanese scholars suggested that China adopts this model in the South China Sea while they negotiate on a Code of Conduct. If the countries are not willing to negotiate on their sovereignty or their resources, then it will only result in a conflict.
Similarly, it was noted that the attempt to change the status quo is what was going on at the Sino-Indian border recently. It’s a non- threatening military action, but yet they are there. The problem in the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is that there are atleast nine areas where there is a difference in perception as to where exactly the line of actual control lies. It was pointed out that the basis of the territorial claims is different for the disputing nations, but it is similar for China and Taiwan as it is based on historical rights. So is this one point where Taiwan is willing to work with China. Answering to this, the scholars said that recently China tried to seek collaboration with Taiwan on the South China Sea. However, Taiwan will not extend any cooperation or engage with China on this matter as it involves the issue of sovereignty. The message was loud and clear that Taiwan has no interest in collaborating with China to resolve the maritime disputes. It was noted that Taiwan will safeguard its sovereignty and emphasised that they should be able to resolve their disputes and engage in dialogues independent of China.
(This report is prepared by Darshana M. Baruah, Research Intern, Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
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