India must back support to ASEAN with hard power
By Satish Misra
14th July 2013 07:58 AM
In a significant development, the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting held in Brunei between June 30 and July 2 took a radically different approach to a potentially explosive conflict between its members and China. In sharp contrast to their meeting held last year in Phnom Penh, where the 10-member group even failed to take up the issue, this time it has pushed to restart negotiations for a regional Code of Conduct (CoC) to settle territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
ASEAN has not only managed to develop an internal consensus on the issue but also cajole China to negotiate towards a binding CoC. Beijing has agreed to host senior officials to discuss a CoC in September this year.
The significance of preserving ASEAN unity and fast-tracking the establishment of a CoC was discussed at a recent meeting of strategic analysts organised by India’s Centre for Asian Strategic Studies and Thailand’s Institute for Strategic and International Studies. The conference evolved the possible contours of a regional dispute-settlement mechanism, which was forwarded to relevant regional governments and inter-governmental organisations.
India’s ‘Look East’ policy has played a constructive role in ASEAN though security initiatives and ASEAN countries have now started looking up for a greater role for India. Welcoming India’s commitment and engagement with ASEAN, Vietnam’s Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh said “we all want to see more of India’s presence in South-east Asia, not only politically, but also economically”.
India and ASEAN countries, however, must be wary of China’s agreement, at least in principle, to restart talks towards a multilateral CoC. It remains to be seen whether China’s leadership has the will or ability to rein in the People’s Liberation Army and its paramilitary forces, both of which have been pivotal in recent South China Sea confrontations. For instance, after securing the disputed Scarborough Shoal after a standoff with Philippine forces last year, China has recently moved to consolidate control over the hydrocarbon-rich Reed Bank off the western Filipino island of Palawan.
The Philippines has desperately sought external support, mainly from the US and Japan, to retain its control over the Second Thomas Shoal, a critical gateway to the disputed Reed Bank amid China’s warnings of a possible “counterstrike”. The renewed tensions have raised the stakes for a binding CoC. For proponents of CoC, the priority is to engage in a series of negotiations aimed at a binding set of agreements that will govern the conduct of parties and the resolution of disputes involving more than two claimants.
Such a CoC would be an extension of the non-binding 2002 DOC, which called for peaceful settlement of disputes and renunciation of the threat and use of force to advance territorial claims. It’d also be consistent with the Indonesia-sponsored “six-point principles” initiative, which emphasises the resolution of maritime claims based on international law—UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Given convergence of its interests with ASEAN countries and Japan which are facing a belligerent China, India must press for a more comprehensive deal, which will question China’s far-reaching nine-dash line map claims to the South China Sea, and create an enforceable multilateral dispute-settlement mechanism that will prevent China from bilaterally outmaneuvering its smaller neighbours.
Presently, India is concentrating on strengthening its economic ties with ASEAN through trade and commerce. The time has come when it must deepen its strategic relations with members of the group and build strategic alliances with the nations fearful of China’s increasing bellicosity. It should be prepared to back its support for maintaining peace and stability and securing maritime lanes in the sea over which China has shown increasing assertiveness by its hard power. drsatishmisra@gmail.com
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