ROILO GOLEZ SPEECH, AIM FORUM ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, First Philippine Holdings Caseroom, Asian Institute of Management, 10 October 2013
The nine dash line of 1947
And now the ten dash line of 2013. In my opinion, this does not affect the Philippine EEZ as the tenth dash is to the East of Taiwan.
My personal involvement in the South China Sea or Spratlys issue goes back a long way.
SPRATLYS, 1971
I was part of a secret mission that transported troops, weapons, equipment and supplies to the islands we occupied in Freedomland, now called Kalayaan Island Group
1690 MAP DRAWN BY ITALIAN VINCENZO CORONELLI
No reference to China Sea or Mare de Chine. There was Mare Dell Indie but no Chine!
MAP OF THE PHILIPPINES BY PEDRO MURILLO VELARDE 1744
Scarborough Shoal, then called Panacot, is clearly shown as part of the Philippines
UNCLOS clearly states that China has no jurisdiction over Mischief Reef and Bajo de Masinloc or Scarborough Shoal as both are within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone or EEZ. China has no business exploiting natural resources or building structures!
MISCHIEF REEF
In 1994, the PRC built the initial structures on stilts here while the Philippine Navy was not patrolling the area due to a monsoon season. Since the reef is just 130 miles
(209 km) away from Palawan, well inside the Philippines' EEZ, the Philippines
immediately protested this action. However, China rejected the protest and stressed
that the structures were shelter for fishermen.
In 1999, China added more structures to Mischief Reef which transformed the place into a military installation instead of shelters for fishermen.
SCARBOROUGH SHOAL OR BAJO DE MASINLOC
“On April 8, 2012, a Philippine Navy surveillance plane spotted eight Chinese fishing vessels docked at the waters of Scarborough shoal. BRP Gregorio del Pilar was sent on the same day by the Philippine Navy to survey the vicinity of the shoal, and confirmed the presence of the fishing vessels and their ongoing activities. On April 10, 2012, BRP Gregorio del Pilar came to inspect the catch of the fishing vessels. The Filipino inspection team discovered illegally collected corals, giant clams and live sharks inside the first vessel boarded by the team. BRP Gregorio del Pilar reported that they attempted to arrest the Chinese fishermen but were blocked by Chinese maritime surveillance ships, China Marine Surveillance 75 (Zhongguo Haijian 75) and China
Marine Surveillance 84 (Zhongguo Haijian 84) . Since then, tensions started between the two countries.” (from Wikipedia)
“By July 2012, China had erected a barrier to the Entrance of the shoal,and vessels belonging to the China Marine Surveillance and Fisheries Law Enforcement Command were observed in the nearby disputed shoal.Since then, the Chinese government vessels have been turning away Filipino vessels sailing to the area.”
Almost 14 years ago, in December 1999, I delivered a Privilege Speech on Bajo de Masinloc or Scarborough Shoal and made the following observations:
“Why would a military behemoth and an emerging economic power such as China
be so preoccupied with microscopic Scarborough Shoal which rightly belongs
to us in the first place?”
“When US naval forces were still occupying Subic, the area was used for
naval gunfire target practice by the US Navy. China did not make even a whimper. Obviously, the reason was that the US Navy was too big to handle. No less than the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea sealed off our territorial jurisdiction on Scarborough Shoal which is Situated well within the 200-mile exclusive economic zone.”
“The answer, Mr. Speaker, is military posturing. Scarborough Shoal is part of China’s military projection at the South China Sea.
“In Scarborough Shoal, China has found a perfect forward fortress at the east to back up its slow but nonstop political and naval march towards the north, where there are Korea, Japan, Taiwan, among others. China has unleashed a blob at the South China Sea, floating eastward, growing slowly, menacingly, nearly unopposed, devouring every speck, every shoal and reef along the way.
“Chinese military contingents are already positioned in various reefs, islets, and rocks of the South China Sea Region, particularly in the Spratlys and the Paracels. Scarborough Shoal is just one more step forward in their bid to secure full control of the world’s second busiest international sea lane."
And I concluded with this warning:
"Mr. Speaker, it is apparent from the foregoing that what the Philippines is facing is not a gentle, lovable Chinese panda, but a fire-breathing highly awakened Chinese dragon. It is a delicate, complex and crucial policy issue that we must resolve for the sake of the next generation. To me, it is a security threat that could overshadow all threats that we faced in the century that is about to end."
In that 1999 speech I also mentioned the following to further stress the strategic importance of the South China Sea:
“The US Energy Information Administration (US-EIA) has described the South China Sea Region as the world’s second busiest international sea lane, encompassing a portion of the Pacific Ocean stretching roughly from Singapore and the Strait
of Malacca in the southwest, to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast.”
“More than half of the world’s supertanker traffic passes through its waters”
“In sea commerce, the South China Sea also plays a crucial role, serving as a
major water link. It is estimated that tanker traffic through the Strait of Malacca leading into the South China Sea is more than three times greater than the Suez Canal
traffic, and well over five times more than that at the Panama Canal.”
“In addition, it contains oil and gas resources strategically located near large
energy-consuming countries.
“The Spratlys alone sit atop 25-billion cubic meters of natural gas, 370,000 tons of phosphorous, and 105 billion barrels of oil with an additional 91 billion barrels of oil
in the James Shoal. At current prices, the oil deposits are separately
worth around US $3 trillion or 40 times the Philippine GNP.”
Still in that 1999 speech, I mentioned:
“Last March, buckling under pressure to stop increasing its presence in the Spratlys,
China sent its Foreign Assistant Minister Wang Yi to this country. This was the first diplomatic act it initiated since 1995 when Filipino fishermen discovered Chinese
Installations at the Mischief Reef.That meeting, however, only demonstrated further
China’s resolve to keep the Spratlys for itself. Wang Yi later admitted that they cannot share the facilities constructed in Mischief Reef.”
Today, the incumbent Foreign Minister of China Is the same Wang Yi who, as assistant minister, took a hard position on China’s land grab of Mischief Reef in 1995.
Here’s an aerial photo of our Shoal. It is not small. Its area of around 150 square kilometers makes the Shoal as big as Quezon City or around three times the area of Paranaque. China with its resources and engineering capability can easily convert our Shoal into a big naval station. Around its perimeter alone, more than 100 052D Class Chinese guided missile destroyers or DDGs can be berthed. Inside the 49 feet deep lagoon, more than 200 DDGs can be anchored (a destroyer has a draft of around 31 feet).
.
It is my considered opinion that China intends to convert our Shoal into a naval station the same way they did to the much smaller Mischief Reef. This is the danger that faces us within this decade.
A Chinese naval installation in Scarborough Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc will be a grave threat to the Security of the Philippines and our allies, LIKE A DAGGER POINTED AT THE HEARTLAND OF THE COUNTRY.
Now let’s look at the South China Sea in relation to most of the Asia Pacific Area to appreciate that this situation cannot be addressed in isolation.
That is, other geopolitical factors inevitably must come into play.
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA:
THE South China Sea links the Indian Ocean to the vast Pacific Ocean.
It is a choke point. The power that controls the South China Sea can control the economy of major economic powers like China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines which is now considered an emerging economic power.
India must pass through the South China Sea to interact with China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
This may come as a shock to many but students of Sea Power Strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan know this:
China suffers from a very vulnerable geography. For years, in talk shows and speeches, I have been saying this.
China is surrounded in all directions and has a short coastline compared to its
landmass and population.
China’s naval assets have very restricted maneuvering space unlike those of
India, Japan, Indonesia, even the Philippines and of course the United States.
China’s Sea Lines of Communications or SLOCs are very vulnerable.
Sea lines of communication (or SLOC) is a term describing the primary maritime routes between ports, used for trade, logistics and naval forces. It is generally used in reference tonaval operations to ensure that SLOCs are open, or in times of war, as a hostile act, to close them.
India’s Navy can blockade China’s trade passing through the Indian Ocean.
A small but deadly naval force based in Singapore can paralyze China’s sea bound trade Westof the South China Sea.
Vietnamese submarines can wreak havoc on China’s Merchant Marine and eventhe PLA Navy.
A small squadron of Australian submarines positioned in the Southern periphery of the South China Sea can stop China’s seaborne trade there.
To the East, China can be blocked by Japan which has a potent Navy and Air Forceconsidered among the most modern and powerful in the world.
And even the Philippines with a modest investment in military upgrading can interdict the Palawan Passage with a “Swarm” of small guided missile boats and an array of medium range land based mobile missiles hidden in the fastnesses of Palawan, Mindoro and Luzon.
A recent August 2013 Strategy Paper by The Australian Policy Institute on China's Maritime Dilemma generally supports my long held view on China’s weaknesses.
"The strategy behind China’s emerging naval capability is subject to considerable debate. Most of the commentary concentrates on the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) capability development. Some commentators argue that the PLAN has shifted its focus towards developing a ‘blue water navy’ to contest America’s maritime predominance in the Western Pacific. But, asDavid McDonough’s recent post on The Strategist points out, the PLAN also continues to invest in defensive ‘anti-access/area-denial’ (A2/AD) for operations in its ‘ First Island Chain’. The common theme of these assessments is that China’s growing naval power should have us worrying.
"However, while the PLAN’s growing maritime capabilities potentially pose a challenge to the United States and countries in the Indo-Pacific region, it’s also important to consider the weaknesses in China’s maritime strategy. Indeed, I’d argue that provided the US and its allies and partners invest in smart counter-strategies, China will find it very difficult to overcome its maritime dilemmas and to coerce regional countries in accepting Beijing’s territorial claims."
TAIWAN DILEMMA:
"Let’s start with China’s ‘Taiwan Dilemma’. The conventional wisdom is that China has already ‘succeeded’ in its A2/AD strategy in the Taiwan Straits by raising the costs for third-party intervention prohibitively high, i.e. keeping US carrier battle groups at arms length. But even if the PLA manages to keep US forces out of a conflict through a ‘sea denial strategy’—which in itself is a very risky assumption given the importance of Taiwan in US Pacific strategy—it faces serious political and operational challenges in invading Taiwan. As I’ve argued elsewhere, Taiwan is systematically investing in its own ‘sea denial strategy’ and the PLA would need to physically destroy most of the island’s infrastructure prior to invasion, with disastrous consequences for China’s international and regional reputation. In short, the PLAN’s A2/AD approach in the Taiwan Straits might not translate into real political currency for Beijing’s leadership."
STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINT DILEMMA:
"Secondly, US naval strategists argue that the PLAN faces a ‘strategic chokepoint dilemma’. The moment the PLAN sails through the Taiwan Straits into the wider Western Pacific Ocean, it faces the combined naval power of the US Navy and her allies, particularly Japan. It couldn’t hope to establish a significant level of ‘sea control’ in this area. Moreover, as soon as the PLAN projects maritime power out of Hainan Island into the South China Sea to assert its claims in the ‘nine-dashed line’ it will face a reengaged US military as well as A2/AD ‘pockets’ of Southeast Asian countries. Just like the US Navy and other modern navies, the PLAN won’t be immune from sea denial capabilities such as submarines, anti-submarine warfare and anti-ship missiles."
MALACCA STRAITS DILEMMA:
"Moreover, the Chinese Government has pointed to the country’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’—the PLAN’s inability to protect China’s energy transport in this strategic chokepoint. But given the geostrategic characteristics of the Malacca Strait—only 1.5 nm at its narrowest point and critical not just for China but the rest of Asia—military options for China are also very limited. Any attempt to project naval power to control this area will automatically draw China into conflict with regional heavyweights such as India, Indonesia and Japan—hardly a winning formula.
"Finally, Chinese strategists seem to be aware that the offensive use of naval power against its Asian neighbours will most likely not achieve any political objective; the opportunity costs of a war at sea are just too high. That’s probably why the most significant recent development in China’s maritime strategy has been the creation of a unified coast guard agency. This step potentially strengthens China’s capacity to use non-military vessels for coercive purposes in territorial disputes with Japan and Southeast Asian nations.
"But even this strategy has limits. Regional countries are upgrading their coast guards and other maritime agencies to level the playing field. They also cooperate, as in the case of Japan and The Philippines. In July, Tokyo announced it would provide Manila with 10 coast guard patrol boatsthrough a yen loan to help it to counter Beijing’s maritime assertiveness. Regional countries are also increasing their maritime surveillance capabilities to monitor and expose Chinese maritime behaviour to a domestic, regional and global audience. This fundamentally undermines Beijing’s attempt to restore its ‘soft power deficit’ accumulated over recent years.
While China’s naval power projection will certainly grow in the future, it’s far from inevitable that the PLAN’s coercive potential will increase commensurately. Indeed, the PLAN’s current desire for big surface combatants and aircraft carriers runs counter to modern navies’ recognition that the future lies in a greater number of smaller, more dispersed and less vulnerable ships which operate as part of a joint force. I’m not yet convinced that China as a continental power has much to gain politically by investing in a very expansive, offensive blue water navy. And even if it does, the good news is that there’ll be lots of ways to offset the PLAN strategy."
In view of my long oft stated observations on the geographical weakness of China, as buttressed by the foregoing Australia Strategy paper, I pose the question:
PLA NAVY – GETTING BIGGER BUT CAN IT BREAK OUT?
CHINA HAS TRIGGERED A COALITION AGAINST ITSELF!
And the potential members of that emerging coalition are big boys.
RECENT RANKING
WAFF OR WORLD’S ARMED FORCES FORUM
The most significant development is the US Strategic Pivot to Asia-Pacific.
May I quote some excerpts from the US Congressional Research Study entitled:
‘Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia’
The US’s increased emphasis on the Asia-Pacific Region
appears to have been prompted by four major developments:
“The U.S. military is encircling China with a chain of air bases and military ports. The latest link: a small airstrip on the tiny Pacific island of Saipan. The U.S. Air Force is planning to lease 33 acres of land on the island for the next 50 years to build a "divert airfield" on an old World War II airbase there.
The Pentagon's big, new strategy for the 21st century is something called Air-Sea Battle, a concept that's nominally about combining air and naval forces to punch through the increasingly-formidable defenses of nations like China or Iran.
An important but oft-overlooked part of Air-Sea Battle calls for the military to operate from small, bare bones bases in the Pacific that its forces can disperse to in case their main bases are targeted by Chinese ballistic missiles.”
Russia
reminded the world that it is a Pacific
power when the Russian Navy conducted
an
extensive joint sea exercise with
China’s
PLA Navy laSo does that make Russia a steadfast, uncompromising ally of China? Not necessarily.
Last year's contract on the delivery of six Kilo class diesel submarines to Vietnam, worth a total of $3.2 billion, is the largest deal in the history of Russian exports of naval equipment.
“The specter of economic doomsday makes war between China and the United States as unthinkable as fear of nuclear doomsday made Soviet-U.S. war. Or does it? In fact, Chinese and American military planners are thinking in exquisite detail, as they are expected to do, about how to win such a conflict. The problem is that the specific plans being concocted could make hostilities less unthinkable, and two great powers with every reason to avoid war could find themselves in one.”
Even the US Senate has entered the picture.
China's response was immediate!
JAPAN
Prime Minister Abe's position is very clear.
VIETNAM
"The position of Vietnam is we always oppose the nine-dash line of China because it's a groundless claim—legally and practically," the Vietnamese leader said in answer to a question at a forum organized by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
INDIA
TWO AIRCRAFT CARRIERS
NINE KILO CLASS SUBMARINES
Akula class nuclear submarine
NINE STEALTH FRIGATES
AUSTRALIA
6
Collins class
submarines
8
Anzac class frigates and
4
Adelaide class frigates
Australian navy to protect sea lanes to China, Japan
and South Korea
Protecting the massive resources projects in northern and Western Australia and export supply lines to China, Japan and South Korea will be a major Defence priority for the Abbott government. New Defence Minister David Johnston said last
night that this was one reason the navy needed highly capable long-range submarines to complement its surface warships.
And from APEC, fresh news about a new coalition:
FROM APEC:
US, JAPAN & AUSTRALIA Trilateral statement on
maritime disputes seen as targeting China
From left) Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Japanese Foreign Minister
Fumio Kishida and US Secretary of State John Kerry at their trilateral meeting
ahead of the APEC forum in Bali. Photo: Reuters
“A joint statement by the United States, Japan and Australia opposing "coercive unilateral actions" in East China Sea territorial disputes is being seen as aimed squarely at Beijing.The statement issued after a three-way meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum summit was the fruit of Japan's efforts to rally support in the dispute over the Diaoyu, or Senkaku, islands, analysts said.US Secretary of State John Kerry, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop met on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Bali on Friday. Although the statement did not name China, it highlighted the East and South China seas, where Beijing has been engaged in several tense territorial disputes.
“The three countries "opposed any coercive unilateral actions that could change the status quo in the East China Sea", the statement said. They stressed "the importance of efforts to reduce tensions and to avoid miscalculations or accidents". The statement also "affirmed the importance of peace and stability, respect for international law, unimpeded trade and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea".
China immediately responded!
China Warns US, Japan, Australia Not to Gang Up in Sea Disputes, REUTERS
FILE
- Vessels from the China Maritime Surveillance and the Japan Coast Guard are
seen
near disputed islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, in the
East
China Sea.
China said on Monday that the U.S., Australia and Japan should
not use their alliance as an excuse to intervene in territorial
disputes in the East China Sea or the South China Sea, and
urged them to refrain from inflaming regional tensions
“The United States, Japan and Australia are allies but this should not become an excuse to interfere in territorial disputes, otherwise it will only make the problems more complicated and harm the interests of all parties,” Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
“We urge the relevant countries to respect facts, distinguish right from wrong, be cautious, and stop all words and deeds that are not beneficial to the proper handling of the issue and undermine regional stability,” Chunying continued in comments
on the ministry website.
India, Vietnam to strengthen defence ties
The Hindu, October 9: India and Vietnam will be on the road to further consolidate their defence ties, with the addition of a fourth pillar, by the time Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong
visits the country next month, said diplomatic sources.
Security ties between the two countries have always been close
but they began accelerating in the field of defence two years ago
when the Chinese objected to Vietnam inviting India to
prospect for oil in a contested portion of the South China Sea.
Since then New Delhi has overcome its own inhibitions and agreed
to partner with Vietnam in areas of submarine and fighter aircraft training
and transfer of medium-sized warships.
The two countries have also been making gestures signalling proximity.
Indian warships visited Nha Trang port, located near the strategic
Cam Ranh Bay.
And now my views on what we should add to the
PHILIPPINE EXTERNAL DEFENSE
REALIGNMENT
USE ASYMMETRIC WARFARE STRATEGY.
ANTI ACCESS/AREA DENIAL.
WE CANNOT MATCH A MILITARY POWER FRIGATE FOR FRIGATE OR FIGHTER PLANE FOR FIGHTER PLANE
BUT WE CAN EASILY AFFORD A FEW HUNDRED CRUISE MISSILES TO TARGET INTRUDERS IN OUR EEZ
PROPOSED DEFENSE ASSETS:
LANDBASED SUPERSONIC CRUISE MISSILES, LIKE THE BRAHMOS,
DEPLOYED IN THE FASTNESSES OF PALAWAN,
MINDORO AND LUZON
BrahMos is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or
land. It is a joint venture between Republic of India's Defence Research and Development Organisation
(DRDO) and Russian Federation's NPO Mashinostroeyenia who have together formed BrahMos Aerospace Private Limited
“BrahMos has the capability of attacking surface targets by flying as low as 10 metres in altitude.
It can gain a speed of Mach 2.8, and has a maximum range of 290 km.The ship-launched and land-based missiles can carry a 200 kg warhead. It has a two-stage propulsion system, with a solid-propellant rocket for initial acceleration and a liquid-fuelled ramjet responsible for sustained supersonic cruise. Air-breathing ramjet propulsion is much more fuel-efficient than rocket propulsion, giving the BrahMos a longer range than a pure rocket-powered missile would achieve.The high speed of the BrahMos likely gives it better target-penetration characteristics than lighter subsonic cruise-missiles such as the Tomahawk. Being twice as heavy and almost four times
faster than the Tomahawk, the BrahMos has more than 32 times the on-cruise kinetic energy of a Tomahawk missile, although it carries only 3/5 the payload and a fraction of the range despite weighing twice as much, which suggests that the missile was designed with a different tactical role. Its 2.8 mach speed means that it cannot be intercepted by some existing missile defence system and its precision makes it lethal to water targets.
AND…
A SWARM OF MISSILE BOATS SIMILAR TO THE
HAYABUSA CLASS MISSILE BOATS OF JAPAN
SPEED OF 46 KNOTSWITH FOUR (4) TYPE 90
Ship-to-Ship Missiles or SSM-1B, Range 150-200 km and 1 otobreda 76 mm gun
Complement of 21
ARE FUNDS AVAILABLE? YES!
P130 BILLION IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE
FROM THE MALAMPAYA FUND.
SECURITY IS A DIRECT, CRITICAL AND
ESSENTIAL PART OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
WHETHER ON LAND OR SEA.
To those who say the Malampaya Fund cannot be used for AFP modernization, TAKE A LOOK AT THIS OIL PLATFORM OUT IN THE OPEN SEA. CAN IT SURVIVE FROM INCEPTION TO OPERATION WITHOUT SECURITY?
STRENGTHEN PHILIPPINES-UNITED STATES
ALLIANCE
SAN ANTONIO, Philippines, Sept 18, 2013 (AFP) - The Philippines and the United States launched war games Wednesday at a naval base facing turbulent waters claimed by China, as the allies sought to highlight their expanding military alliance.
About 2,300 marines from both sides are taking part in the annual manoeuvres which this year are being staged alongside the South China Sea and come ahead of US President Barack Obama's planned first visit to the Philippines next month.
The Philippines, which has been seeking US military support to counter what it perceives as a growing Chinese threat to its South China Sea territory, welcomed the exercises as another important plank in building its defence capabilities.
Mini-Subic' being planned
near Palawan's underground
river
By ANDREW R.C. MARSHALL and MANUEL MOGATO, Reuters October 2, 201
Reuters - Oyster Bay, a postcard-perfect cove on Palawan Island that the Philippines expects to transform into a port for its naval frigates
and eventually for American warships--all overlooking the disputed South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Oyster Bay is about 160 km (100 miles) from the Spratlys.
"In Manila, the leaders must move behind rhetorical blandishments about a new spirit of partnership and start to detail specific actions
That will strengthen Philippine defense capabilities," said Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific security expert at the Center for a
New American Security in Washington.
That includes building a permanent home for the Philippines' two big warships.
It also means finding strategic areas where the United States could rotate troops, ships and naval aircraft — all within easy reach of territory claimed by Beijing."Oyster Bay may be the best choice," said Cronin.
From Syria to South China Sea,
Navies Cruise Back Into Vogue.
Reuters
“LONDON — After a quarter century of Middle Eastern land wars and a sharp fall in big powers' naval spending after the Cold War, sea power is back in vogue in response to the rise of China… Washington is moving ships from the Atlantic to Pacific in part to confront Beijing's People's Liberation Army Navy, seen the primary beneficiary of years of double-digit defense budget increases.”
“Beijing began operating its ex-Soviet carrier late last year, though it says it is
not yet fully operational. It is also building submarines, patrol boats and other warships.
“In September, state-backed China Shipbuilding Industry announced it planned to raise $1.4 billion through a private share sale to buy assets used for building warships, the first time Beijing had tapped the capital market to fund its military expansion.”
“Worried nearby nations - particularly those with Maritime boundary disputes with China - are upgrading everything from radar to missiles…
“Japan will next year see its largest defense spending rise in 22 years, purchasing patrol boats and helicopters and creating a force of marines.”
“Australia is boosting its navy to include new assault ships, while Vietnam is buying
Russian submarines.
“The Philippines is dramatically expanding its once almost moribund force, acquiring
two former U.S. Coast Guard cutters, Japanese patrol boats and a second-hand
French warship.”
However there is hope that China’s rise will slow down, and reduce as well her aggressiveness.
Last week, the crisis was announced with a flourish. First, The New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-recipient Paul Krugman penned a piece titled "Hitting China's Wall." He wrote, "The signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We're not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country's whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be."
And the Philippines with its projected economic rise can better support a security build-up:
Scarborough Shoal another Mischief of China???
The latest development is that there appear to be some construction activities in Bajo de Masinloc or Scarborough Shoal. According to the Department of National Defense, around 75 concrete blocks were spotted during a recent aerial surveillance of the area. This is very ominous as it could be the prelude to converting our Shoal into a Chinese military installation right in our front yard.
PHILIPPINES RESPECTS RULE OF LAW:
From the Economist
“The Philippines has also invoked a United Nations body the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS).
In January it asked ITLOS to rule on China’s claim in the South China Sea, a vaguely explained U-shaped “nine-dashed line” looping round virtually all of it. ITLOS has now asked the Philippines to present a detailed “memorial” by the end of March 2014. China will simply ignore the proceedings, but risks some embarrassment.”
Status of ITLOS CASE:
REUTERS: Philippines S.China Sea legal case
Against China gathers pace
Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:09am EDT
* South China Sea legal case a "proxy battle" for tensions at sea
* Philippines builds crack legal team
* China still objecting, saying case has no merit
* Case resonating widely as tensions build
* Recent move by judges' panel possibly favourable to Manila
CONTINUATION REUTERS ARTICLE:
By Greg Torode
HONG KONG, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Philippines' legal challenge against
China's claims in the South China Sea is gathering pace, emerging as a "proxy battle" over Beijing's territorial reach.
Manila has assembled a crack international legal team to fight its unprecedented arbitration case under the United Nations' Convention on the Law of the Sea - ignoring growing pressure from Beijing to scrap
the action.
Any result will be unenforceable, legal experts say, but will carry considerable moral and political
weight.
We are getting help from a country that knows the history of the seas of this part of the world.
THE ITLOS CASE, ASEAN, APEC, EAS SUMMIT, THAT IS STATE DIPLOMACY:
MALACANANG AND DFA
ALSO IMPORTANT IS PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
And that is why I organized a movement of citizens called Di Ka Pasisiil Movement to help in the needed public information campaign so the nation and the rest of the world will know about China’s violation of Philippine sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea.
And the Di Ka Pasisiil Movement joined the umbrella organization called the West Philippine Sea Coalition.
In a short time the Public Diplomacy efforts and movement made waves here and abroad!
IS THERE A PEACEFULWIN-WIN SOLUTION?
Last September 26, I listened to the speech of China Ambassador Ma Keqing when she spoke in the Rotary Club of Manila where I belong.
She stressed the Chinese Dream: Powerful & prosperous state. Dream of peace. Peace & development. Aware of preciousness of peace.
Without peace little can be accomplished. Dream of development and benefits for Chinese people.
She dangled the trade carrot:
Chinese development has made significant
contributions to the world. 10 trillion dollars imports target. Provide massive opportunities for the rest of the world.
China remains Philippines third largest
export market. Tourist arrival 245,000,
third largest for the Philippines. Trade however left far behind compared with other ASEAN countries. 2 Million Chinese tourists in Thailand.We can be important market for each
other. Opportunity waits for nobody. In dispute in the South China Sea, China is
ready to solve dispute through dialogue, peaceful solutions. Preferred joint exploitation of natural resources. Serve interest of both countries and promote regional peace.
She was asked: Why is China not participating in arbitral tribunal?
Her answer: In China, we resolve disputes by talking to each other. When people
file a case in court, they are not anymore friends. Solve problem by dialogue.
Better way is to talk to each other. Arbitration was resorted to without consulting China. Unilateral act of the Philippines.
(Golez: They also did not consult us when China
Occupied Mischief Reef and
Scarborough Shoal!)
We asked her: What peaceful solution do we have in the West Philippine Sea?
Her Answer: Difficult, not easy issue to solve. We are very patient to solve the problem. Let's focus on joint exploitation, we cannot let the
natural resources remain idle.
And a now big carrot from China President Xi Jinping:
China plans Maritime Silk Road with ASEAN nations:
Report
“China is the 10-member ASEAN group's largest trading partner, with the two-way trade exceeding $400 billion last year.
China proposes to build a Maritime Silk Road with Southeast Asia countries where it is locked in a vexed dispute over the South China Sea to boost its foreign trade, state media here reported today.
The Maritime Silk Road (MSR) formed the basis for the plans to enhance trade between China and ASEAN countries during the current visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Indonesia and Malaysia where he stated
the MSR would help turn the "Golden Decade" between China and the region into "Diamond Decade".
Such a project would be built upon solid political basis and economic foundations, and is in line with the common aspirations of the peoples of China and the ASEAN countries, a commentary by the state-run Xinhua news agency said.
MARITIME SILK ROAD WITH ASEAN NATIONS?
MEGATRADE WITH CHINA?
WHY NOT?
BUT CHINA MUST GET OUT OF OUR
WEST PHILIPPINE SEA FIRST!!
Thank You!
ROILO GOLEZ
No comments:
Post a Comment