Calling for calm: US Air Force General Herbert "Hawk" Carlisle.
Calling for calm: US Air Force General Herbert "Hawk" Carlisle. Photo: Supplied
Singapore: Comments by the leaders ofJapan and the Philippines drawing parallels between China's growing assertiveness in the region and events in prewar Europe are "not helpful", the commander of US air forces in the Pacific said.
"The rise of Germany and what occurred between the UK in particular and Germany, and what happened in Europe, I don't draw that comparison at all to what's going on today" in the Asia-Pacific, General Herbert "Hawk" Carlisle, 58, said. "Some of the things, in particular that have been done by Japan, they need to think hard about what is provocative to other nations."
The recent comments by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Philippine President Benigno Aquino, two US allies, have escalated tensions at a time when China is pushing its territorial claims in both the East and South China Seas, and as President Xi Jinping expands the reach of his country's navy. Both sought to cast China's actions against the historical perspective of Germany's ascension in the first half of the 20th century.
"The de-escalation of tensions has got to be a multilateral approach and it's not just one country that needs to de-escalate," said General Carlisle, a former fighter squadron commander who is responsible for air force operations for more than half the globe, with oversight of 45,000 aircrew. "All of them do. The risk from miscalculation is high. It's greater than it should be."
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Mr Abe said in Switzerland late last month that Germany and Britain went to war despite strong economic ties, and warned Japan andChina must avoid a similar fate. In an interview with The New York Timespublished on February 5, Mr Aquino called on nations to support the Philippines in defending its territory in the South China Sea,drawing a parallel with the West's failure to back Czechoslovakia against Adolf Hitler's demands for the Sudetenland in 1938.
China and Japan haven't held a summitsince Mr Abe took office in December 2012. Protests broke out in China in late 2012 after Japan bought some of the disputed East China Sea islands, known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese, from a private owner. China in November set up an air defence zone in the area, demanding civil and military aircraft present flight plans before entering the space. In December, Mr Abe roiled ties by visiting the Yasukuni shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, including 14 World War II military leaders convicted as Class-A criminals.
"If you look at some of the things that have been going on in the East China Sea, both militaries have been conducting themselves very professionally," said General Carlisle. "But the potential for something, a mistake to occur or miscalculation or misunderstanding to occur, is out there. There is significantly more activity from both nations around the disputed territorial claims, and that to me is a risk."
Any attempt by China to replicate its air zone in the South China Sea would be a "very provocative act", said General Carlisle. The US opposes any such move and "we've strongly, through diplomatic channels, made that known to the PRC", he said, referring to the People's Republic of China.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei on February 1 dismissed as "speculation" a report by Japanese newspaper Asahi that China also plans a zone in waters rich in fish, oil and gas that are subject to competing claims from countries such as China, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, and home to some of the world's busiest shipping lanes.
China introduced fishing rules last month requiring foreign vessels to seek permission before entering waters off its southern coast. The South China Sea is estimated to have as much as 30 billion tonnes of oil and 16 trillion cubic metres of gas, which would account for about one-third of China's oil and gas resources, China's official Xinhua News Agency reported.
Policing any air zone over the South China Sea would require China to shift some of its forces, which are now predominantly on the east coast of China, General Carlisle said.
"There's less of an established force today in the south," he said. "The numbers it would take to patrol that size of air space, they would have to shift some of their force. Whether they do that or not, I couldn't tell you. The capability of their systems to range the entire South China Sea does exist."
In December China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned from an initial training mission in the South China Sea. Its drills triggered diplomatic tensions after a Chinese vessel cut in front of the USS Cowpens guided-missile cruiser from a distance of 100 metres in the area on December 5, an incident US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said was "irresponsible".
Bloomberg