PHILIPPINE EXTERNAL DEFENSE REALIGNMENT - FIGHT ASYMMETRIC By Roilo Golez, February 2014

PHILIPPINE EXTERNAL DEFENSE REALIGNMENT - FIGHT ASYMMETRIC

By Roilo Golez

Let me present my views on what we should add to the Philippine External Defense Realignment.

I remember during my first terms as a member of the Philippine Congress and even as a member of the Philippine Cabinet as National Security Adviser for three years, deliberations on security concerns were dominated by internal security matters such as the communist insurgency, the Mindanao secessionist movements and terrorism. External defense started to figure prominently only in recent years with the growing assertiveness and show of force of China.

In my opinion, external defense should be made the top priority for the realignment of our national defense strategy.

We are facing an external threat from the world’s second most powerful country whose military might is growing each day. And while China is not our land neighbor, we share the same relatively small body of water, the South China Sea.

We have already experienced both the growl and the bite of our northern giant when the grabbed our Mischief Reef in the 1990s and when they took control of our Bajo de Masinloc or Scarborough Shoal.

Some sound very defeatist about the prospect of a conflict with an emerging super power in view of China’s overwhelming economic and military superiority and ask, how can we resist? What’s the use?

My answer:

First it is our constitutional duty to defend and protect our territorial integrity. We reaffirm this mandate every time we sing our National Anthem: “Sa manlulupig, di ka pasisiil!”

And second, it is not an entirely losing proposition to confront a giant. History and the Bible are replete with stories of smaller forces winning a conflict with or successfully resisting a much bigger force, both in the battlefield and the geopolitical arena.

SMALL COUNTRY CAN BEAT MUCH BIGGER COUNTRY

From "David and Goliath" the newest book of best selling author Malcolm Gladwell:

"Suppose you were to total up all the wars over the past two hundred years that occurred between very large and very small countries. Let's say that one side has to be at least ten times larger in population and armed might than the other. How often do you think the bigger side wins? Most of us, I think, would put the number at close to 100 percent. A tenfold difference is a lot. But the actual answer may surprise you. When the political scientist Ivan Arreguin-Toft did the calculation a few years ago, what he came up with was 71.5 percent. Just under a third of the time, the weaker country wins. 

"Arreguin-Taft then asked the question slightly differently. What happens in wars between the strong and the weak when the weak side does as David did and refuses to fight the way the bigger side wants to fight, using unconventional or guerrilla tactics? The answer in those cases, the weaker party's winning percentage climbs from 28.5 percent to 63.6 percent.”

We are now in the process, more than at any period of our recent history, of beefing up of our conventional external defense capability.

We have two new Navy ships, not much by international standards given the magnitude of the threat, but they constitute a big leap and their presence has made our Philippine Navy more capable than at any time in our recent history. These are the two converted coast guard cutters acquired from the US: the BRP Gregorio del Pilar and the BRP Ramon Alcaraz, with very fitting names after two Filipino heroes who won their place in Philippine history fighting overwhelming military odds.

 

I propose Asymmetric Warfare as our principal strategy in confronting the bully in the neighborhood.

We should use ANTI-ACCESS/AREA DENIAL methods and strategy.

We cannot match a giant military power frigate for frigate or fighter plane for fighter plane.

But we can easily afford a few hundred cruise missiles to target intruders and prevent access to our Exclusive Economic Zone.

I propose the following:

MISSILE DEFENSE

Land based Supersonic Cruise Missiles, SIMILAR TO OR LIKE the Brahmos, deployed in the fastnesses of Palawan, Mindoro and Luzon.

BrahMos is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or land. It is a joint venture between Republic of India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russian Federation's NPO Mashinostroeyenia who have together formed BrahMos Aerospace Private Limited.

A technical description reads as follows:

“BrahMos has the capability of attacking surface targets by flying as low as 10 metres in altitude. It can gain a speed of Mach 2.8, and has a maximum range of 290 km. The ship-launched and land-based missiles can carry a 200 kg warhead. It has a two-stage propulsion system, with a solid-propellant rocket for initial acceleration and a liquid-fuelled ramjet responsible for sustained supersonic cruise. Air-breathing ramjet propulsion is much more fuel-efficient than rocket propulsion, giving the BrahMos a longer range than a pure rocket-powered missile would achieve. The high speed of the BrahMos likely gives it better target-penetration characteristics than lighter subsonic cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk. Being twice as heavy and almost four times faster than the Tomahawk, the BrahMos has more than 32 times the on-cruise kinetic energy of a Tomahawk missile, although it carries only 3/5 the payload and a fraction of the range despite weighing twice as much, which suggests that the missile was designed with a different tactical role. Its 2.8 Mach speed means that it cannot be intercepted by some existing missile defence system and its precision makes it lethal to water targets.”

The price of this missile is around $2.7 Million. Fifty to One hundred units will cost around $ 1.5 to 3 Billion.

With an array of cruise missiles deployed in our West Coast, I don’t think a prudent commander of a foreign DDG or even a flotilla of DDGs would dare go in harms way within our EEZ. Ditto to the foreign troops stationed illegally in an installation, like in Mischief Reef, knowing they could be pulverized in an actual conflict. This missile defense system should be assigned to the Philippine Air Force.

SWARM Navy:

The BRP Del Pilar and BRP Alcaraz are there, and perhaps two or three more modern frigates will be acquired soon to give the Philippine Navy credible capability. However, in a direct confrontation, they are no match against China’s modern DDGs and frigates.

We need to support our frigates with Swarm tactics and strategy in protecting our EEZ and territorial seas. This is cost effective credible defense. Even the world’s most powerful Navy, the US Navy, finds a swarm navy in the Persian Gulf a credible deterrent.

I propose a SWARM of Missile Boats SIMILAR to the HAYABUSA Class Missile Boats of Japan.

SPEED OF 46 KNOTS WITH FOUR (4) TYPE 90

Ship-to-Ship Missiles or SSM-1B, Range 150-200 km and 1 otobreda 76 mm gun

Complement of 21

While starting the process for acquiring brand new missile boats from various sources, we should scout around for some good second missile boats from Japan, Israel, Russia and Sweden for delivery and use within this year.

Some traditional navy officers are saying that the missile boats are not suitable and don’t have the endurance for patrol duties in the open sea. Well, they are not meant for patrol. They should just be hiding close to the shores of Palawan and Luzon, ready for quick sorties in case of an actual conflict, go out ten to twenty miles within our EEZ and attack or threaten targets the get close to or enter our EEZ.

ARE FUNDS AVAILABLE? YES!

P130 Billion was a few months ago available from the Malampaya Fund. We can check other sources. Or resort to creative financial engineering the same way we fund big infrastructure projects like highways, ports and airports, tapping suppliers’ credit facilities.

Security is a direct, critical and essential part of energy development whether on land or sea.

To those who say the Malampaya Fund cannot be used for AFP modernization, TAKE A LOOK AT THIS OIL PLATFORM OUT IN THE OPEN SEA. CAN IT SURVIVE FROM INCEPTION TO OPERATION WITHOUT SECURITY? Security is an inherent, inseparable, integral component of any major energy project, on land or sea. I consulted with one of the country’s legal luminaries and he not only agrees, he strongly recommends that the Malampaya fund be tapped.

We should acquire these weapons systems as soon as possible and aim for delivery of most the units, cruise missiles and missile boats within on to two years.

I would like to add by saying that our military is weak in weapons systems not because we are a weak country, but because that had been our choice. We have the economic power to make our armed forces strong, the way it was in the 1950s and early 1960s in view of the fast unraveling situation to the West.

Author Roilo Golez served for six terms as congressman and was was chairman of the House committee on national defense. He also served in the cabinet as national security adviser. He is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis and founder of the Di Ka Pasisiil Movement, a citizens movement opposing China’s illegal presence in the West Philippine Sea.