WARMING PACIFIC OCEAN, SEA LEVEL RISE, HAIYAN’S FURY AND SURGE – EXPECT MORE AND INCREASINGLY MORE INTENSE TYPHOONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE - Roilo Golez, 19 February 2014

WARMING PACIFIC OCEAN, SEA LEVEL RISE, HAIYAN’S FURY AND SURGE – EXPECT MORE AND INCREASINGLY MORE INTENSE TYPHOONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

DIGITAL ARTIFACT submitted by ROILO GOLEZ on 19 February 2014 as part of the requirements to complete his participation in World Bank’s Massive Open Online Course (MOOC), based on the report Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided.

The World Bank’s Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) Climate Change Course has provided me adequate technical information on the new physics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, like HAIYAN or YOLANDA (the Philippine name of the typhoon) which struck our Visayas region on November 8, 2014 killing more than 6,000 and destroying billions of pesos worth of infrastructure and properties along its deadly swath.

But beyond the shocking and mindboggling story of the devastation is the clear message of the “Turn Down the Heat” report:

THERE IS SCIENTIFIC BASIS TO EXPECT THAT MORE, EVEN STRONGER TYPHOONS WILL COME, NOT AFTER MANY YEARS BUT MUCH SOONER, AS THE WORLD CONTINUES TO WARM AND AS NATURE SIMPLY FOLLOWS THE INVIOLABLE LAWS OF PHYSICS THAT CREATED HAIYAN.

An urgent, compelling public information campaign must be implemented immediately to save lives and properties and the government must review and redirect the government's multibillion dollar rehabilitation program.

The day before the typhoon hit the Philippines, dire warnings came out in the news 

The danger was clearly explained by tropical weather expert Brian McNoldy at the Capital Weather Gang, the Washington Post's weather blog. Live Science summarized McNoldy’s technical explanation of why they project a super typhoon. Please note the article from Live Science:

How Typhoon Haiyan Became Year's Most Intense Storm

By Douglas Main, Staff Writer   |   November 07, 2013

http://www.livescience.com/41025-typhoon-haiyan-most-intense-storm.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Livesciencecom+%28LiveScience.com+Science+Headline+Feed%29

This article explained in scientific terms how the typhoon built up to become a super typhoon packing 300 kph winds:

“Haiyan got so strong because ‘it has everything working for it,’ McNoldy said. First, it formed in the open ocean, and thus no land mass prevented it from forming a symmetrical circular pattern, which helps a cyclone form and gather steam, he said.

“Second, ocean temperatures are incredibly warm, topping out at 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius).  Just as important, the warm water also extends deep into the ocean, meaning that upwelling caused by the winds will not churn up cold water, which dampens cyclone power, McNoldy said. Tropical cyclones are basically giant heat engines, powered by the transfer of heat from the ocean to the upper atmosphere.

“Third, there is very little wind shear in the area at this time, McNoldy said. Wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction with increasing altitude, tears developing hurricanes apart, and prevents them from strengthening. Wind shear caused by westerly winds is the main reason why the Atlantic hurricane season featured few strong storms, and got off to a late start, weather experts say.”

THE article had a very clear warning on the SURGE that should have been frightening enough had it been treated like a Tsunami warning, but it was overshadowed by the headlines on the forecast of record 300-kph winds:

“Haiyan is likely to push a large storm surge inland — at least 10 feet (3 meters) — along the eastern coast of the islands of Luzon and Samar, according to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog.”

The people and local authorities prepared for the strong winds, the way they had done for decades, even centuries. The government issued a warning about the SURGE, but it got submerged under the warning on the extreme strong winds. The SURGE was the more destructive killer, sweeping and destroying homes and killing people who could have evacuated to higher grounds had a clear Tsunami like warning on the SURGE been issued. People braced for the winds, but not the SURGE.

The SURGE was never fully explained in the government warnings. People in the coastal areas of Samar and Leyte were caught flatfooted, including local officials, the police and the military, whose homes and offices were wiped out. With clearer warnings on what the SURGE meant, they could have evacuated to higher ground and thousands of lives could have been saved.

Below is a photo of the Severe Weather Bulletin Four-A of the Philippine Weather Bureau better by its acronym PAGASA issued at 8PM November 7, 2013 on the eve of the typhoon’s landfall.

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/185702161?access_key=key-14tcecvqa32284nppweo&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll

"At the bottom of the forecast – in a footnote-like text – is a warning against possible 7-meter high storm surges in areas declared under signals 4, 3, and 2."

Note the very minimal, "by the way" style, virtual footnote mention of the SURGE around 57 lines from the top of the bulletin, when it should have been included among the top weather forecast items to emphasize the danger.

Following the thrust and tenor of the government’s weather bulletin, Philippine Star, one of the country’s biggest newspapers, also minimally mentioned the surge among the last items in its headline news on the “Monster typhoon” the day before the storm.

Monster typhoon grows stronger; 10 areas in Visayas under signal no. 4

By Louis Bacani (philstar.com) | Updated November 7, 2013 

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/11/07/1254270/monster-typhoon-grows-stronger-10-areas-visayas-under-signal-no.-4

"MANILA, Philippines - Public storm warning signal number 4 has been raised over more areas in Visayas on Thursday evening after Super Typhoon "Yolanda" slightly accelerated and intensified, state weather bureau PAGASA said.

"In a severe weather bulletin issued at 8 p.m., PAGASA said Yolanda was last spotted at 453 kilometers southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 225 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 260 kph.

And then around 67 lines after the first line of this news is a “by the way, hard to notice mention of the surge: 

“Those living in coastal areas under signal nos. 4, 3 and 2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to a seven-meter wave height."

The lack of advance alarm and awareness on the SURGE was evident from local Philippine TV news quoting the Mayor of the devastated City of Tacloban:

 http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/338942/news/nation/tacloban-mayor-it-was-hard-to-explain-storm-surge-to-public-before-yolanda-s-landfall :

 “Tacloban City Mayor Alfred Romualdez on Monday admitted that his government found it difficult to explain what a storm surge was to his constituents before Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) ravaged through their area last month. "There was a difficulty in explaining to the public what a storm surge is. We were aware of the height, but not the strength," Romualdez said.

And the PAGASA, the Philippine Weather Bureau, admitted this lapse as indicated by this Rappler news story six days after the typhoon struck.

http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/typhoon-yolanda/43735-yolandaph-haiyan-preparedness-philippines

'Storm surge' not explained enough – PAGASA official

BY BUENA BERNAL

POSTED ON 11/14/2013 7:22 PM

MANILA, Philippines – As far as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is concerned, all necessary public warnings were issued before Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) unleashed its wrath Friday, November 8.

Ma. Cecilia Monteverde, assistant weather services chief of PAGASA, however, admitted that more could have been done in explaining to the public the magnitude and gravity of a storm surge.

"We weren't able to tackle that. It's more on the signals and in delivering the forecasts and warning distributed to the public. But the storm surge wasn’t explained there," Monteverde, speaking in Filipino, told Rappler.

Satellite photo of the typhoon Haiyan:

And photos of part of the massive destruction:

There is an urgent need to educate the public and public officials who are supposed to protect the public from extreme weather events.

The dynamics of typhoons have changed: This World Bank Turn Down the Heat Climate Change Course offers more technical explanations that should be stressed to the public so they will better understand  that the dynamics of typhoons have changed radically, that typhoons and its consequences have become more severe because of Climate Change.

The course, through a comprehensive formal report and very educational videos, provides technical explanations, which I believe most laymen, including high school students, can easily understand.

Very important is the lecture on Sea Level Rise which we can call “Sea Level Rise 101”: "Impact of sea level" by Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of a Physics of the  Ocean, Potsdam University, Germany. https://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-001/lecture/39

I selected the following excerpt from that video and created this YouTube video under my account for easier reference:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibRAXwu-a1I

Prof. Rahmstorf clearly and scientifically explained how the location of the Philippines aggravated the impact of Haiyan: “Part of the devastation was due to a big storm surge. Made much worse by the fact that sea level in that area in the Philippines rose much higher than anywhere else in the planet. Observed sea level rise since 1993 by satellite. There's an exceptionally large rise in the tropical Western Pacific. Where does this come from? This is because of the fact that the trade winds that blow from East to West near the equator have increased in the last decades pushing more water towards the West piling it upon the side of the Philippines.”

Prof, Rahmstorf provided these photos in his video presentation where the Philippines is situated in the red area, the region of highest sea level rise. I took digital photos of two of Prof. Rahmstorf's slides and present them here:

The major stories and articles on Haiyan or Yolanda blamed Climate Change or global warming as the cause of extreme weather events. But there is no prominent mention of sea level rise as a major aggravating factor that made the surge deadlier.

Note this article in the Telegraph headlined “The truth behind Haiyan.” This was a full week after the typhoon struck.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/

“There is, though, one far less discussed factor that appears to have aggravated Haiyan’s impact: rising sea levels do seem to have swelled the storm surge that caused most of the deaths."

Another danger: There is the dangerous public impression that Haiyan could be an isolated super typhoon that could take years to repeat. This is dangerous and should be corrected.

The public and pertinent public officials must be informed and educated that there is technical and scientific evidence that another Haiyan or even stronger typhoon is very likely and can become regularly recurring extreme events in the future because the physical causes remain and could even get worse as the earth gets warmer towards an increase by 2°C or worse.

And the trade winds pushing the Pacific seas from East to West will certainly continue to make the sea level around the Philippines the highest in the world, thus posing the danger of a deadlier SURGE the next time a highly probable typhoon from the wide open Pacific Ocean comes again.

The Climate Change Course explains clearly that the Philippine is at the center of the highest risk by events triggered by global warming:

1.   The report “Turn Down the Heat” prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics cites the scientific explanation on sea level rise: “thermal expansion of the oceans and by the addition of water in the oceans as a result of the melting and discharge of ice from mountain glaciers and ice caps and from the much larger Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets,” all of these as a direct result of global warming due to increases in greenhouse gases. The public must know this, as most of the articles on sea level rise are generally limited to mentioning global warming. More than any other country in the planet, the Philippines appears to be the most vulnerable to sea level rise.  The public and public officials must be better educated on the chain of events leading to sea level rise and why it could get worse as a matter of the inviolable laws of physics at work from greenhouse gases to global warming to sea level rise to impress upon the public that continued carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases would inevitably lead to more sea level rise. And for the Philippines, there is a need for greater awareness of the scientific finding that the rise in our part of the world, in the low latitude region in the tropics, is 15-20% higher. The videos on sea level rise by Prof. Prof. Rahmstorf are very effective in explaining this. I believe this video must be propagated and reechoed in the countries like the Philippines facing grave sea level rise threats.

2.  That the East-West trade winds push the seas towards the Philippines is a revelation. Of course the trade winds are not directly triggered by global warming, but the important point is that it is that it seriously exacerbates the combination of SLR highest in the tropics and the Philippines in the typhoon belt.

There is therefore a need to explain to the public what the SURGE is and how the sea level rise is the Philippines area is highest in the whole planet because of the convergence of two factors: (1) The Philippines is located in the low latitude region near the Equator where Sea Level Rise is 15-20 % higher than the global median sea level rise, and; (2) the East-West trade winds that push seas towards the area of the Philippines generating more sea level rise.

In the public information campaign, the SURGE must be given the alarming image of a TSUNAMI, simple mention of which will send the people scampering to higher grounds.

The public information campaign must stress that the increase from a warming of .8°C to 2°C by the middle of this century is not a small difference, that it is big and can magnify consequences into catastrophic proportions.

It must be stressed that the Pacific Ocean will not change, it will remain a vast ocean that will continue to give a storm the wide open space to build up momentum and that the seas will even get warmer to feed more power to the storm since “Tropical cyclones are basically giant heat engines, powered by the transfer of heat from the ocean to the upper atmosphere.”

The public must be also be made very aware that the Sea Level Rise, in addition to aggravating the SURGE, also triggers the following dire consequences:

1.    Destruction of coral reefs thus jeopardizing the millions who depend on the coral reefs for income and food. Dr. Janice Lough in Video 12 "What happens to coral reefs" https://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-001/lecture/43 warned that “Additional source of physical destruction to coral reefs is by the big storms. It takes about ten to twenty years to recover. Storms are likely to be more intense.”

2.    “Rising sea levels mean greater threats to Coastal aquifers and ground water systems. Salt water pushing fresh water, affecting the health of ecosystems. Sea level rise is accelerating around the world. As much as 10% of agricultural land may be vulnerable” this was eloquently explained by Dr. Peter Gleick in Video 8 of the Course entitled “Risks to Global Water Reources”, https://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-001/lecture/37.

3.   Rising sea levels cause “saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers, freshwater used for drinking get infiltrated by saltwater, water could become unusable. Worst impact is the greatly increased danger of coastal flooding. Vulnerable coasts are the whole of Africa, Madagascar, South Asia, small islands in Indian Ocean, Indonesia, Indochina, Thailand, China, Taiwan and the Philippines…” explained clearly by Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf in Video 10 of the Course.

This is the Philippine Climate Change Action Plan approved by the Philippine President in November 2011 (http://www.dilg.gov.ph/PDF_File/resources/DILG-Resources-2012116-d7b64f9faf.pdf)

There is no prominent mention of how to cope with Haiyan class or, expectedly, much worse typhoons. Now, typhoons must be given very dominant attention, commensurate to the potential damage it can inflict on the country, as demonstrated by Haiyan and as explained by science.  

Per media report (Rappler), the Philippine government has announced a P361Billion or US$8 B Program for post-HAIYAN or Yolanda rehabilitation http://www.rappler.com/nation/46153-philippines-recovery-assistance-yolanda-haiyan-funds.

The rehab breakdown is as follows:

Bulk of this amount will go to rebuilding homes until 2017. The Philippine government said it will use 50.79% of this amount, or P183.3 billion, for shelter and resettlement.

The next biggest chunk, or around 19.56% of the total, will go to jobs and businesses. The industry and services sector, which includes livelihoods, enterprises, and services, will require P70.6 billion.

The other investment requirements include the following, from highest to lowest:

Education and health services – P37.4 billion

Public infrastructure – P28.4 billion

Agriculture, including crops, livestock, and fisheries – P18.7 billion

Social protection – P18.4 billion

If most of the rehab projects are going to be along the path of future, much stronger typhoons, plus the SURGES, is it wise to make those investments that would also, based in scientific evidence, be vulnerable to future, even stronger typhoons? What is the probability of another Haiyan-class typhoon hitting the area within one to two years while the rehab is ongoing with billions already expended? Is it better to relocate farther inland?

The Climate Change Course includes a video lecture entitled "Act Now, Act Together, Act Differently in Response to Climate Change" by Marianne Fay, Chief Economist, Sustainable Development and Climate Change Group, World Bank, https://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-001/lecture/47

She gives this advice which is most relevant to the Philippine Haiyan experience:

"We need to plan realistically for a warmer future.... We need to ensure that climate risks are integrated into development planning from here on out. Acting differently means new infrastructure must be built with some new extremes. In some cases, existing infrastructure may need to be relocated. This may mean coastal roads moved farther inland... We must enhance adaptation to a variety of climate future. We should develop better climate information systems to address climate risks..."

I made a You tube video of the above segment for easier reference: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRp8u89TzM4

Following World Bank Chief Economist Fay's advice, the multibillion dollar rehab program must include moving farther inland the coastal road system and other infrastructures  of Leyte and Samar to avoid destruction by super typhoons which appear inevitable in the near future. 

For "better climate information systems," the national and local governments must work and "act together" for an intensive public information campaign on the new dynamics and physics of typhoons and SURGES, among others.  Below is Madam Fay's model for an information system:

Beyond the debate on mitigation and adaptation to cope with Climate Change is the need to strongly convey to the Philippine public and public officials the message, in layman’s terms, that failure to control the warming to lower than 2°C means nature’s more intense wrath and fury and that unfortunately, because of our geographical location, the Philippines is one of the countries that have absorbed and will continue to absorb the full shock of Sea Level Rise, more intense typhoons and SURGES. Unfortunately, the Philippines can control only a minute fraction of the scientific reasons for the warming of the troposphere and the oceans, the causes of the sea level rise and typhoon build-up, or the trade winds that aggravate sea level rise in the tropics where the Philippines is located. The Philippines can only lobby, appeal, argue in the various Climate Change forums of the world, this time armed with graphic evidences of Climate Change at its most vicious in recorded history so far.

The world must respond even if they are far from the typhoon belt because somehow Climate Change’s many horsemen of the apocalypse, not just four but more, will visit them in another form, such as droughts, diseases, floods, famine, crop failure, coral reef destruction, forest fires, energy breakdown, even wars.

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