China and Japan on the brink of Third World War
WHILE vast swathes of the Middle East are embroiled in conflict and Ukraine teeters on the brink, many believe the real flashpoint for war is between China and Japan.
Japanese patrols drive off foreign fi shing boats near the disputed Senkaku islands [GETTY]
As China flexes its military might, with huge increases in defence spending and increasingly assertive patrols in disputed territories, Japan has compared the tensions to those between England and Germany before the First World War.
So far it has been a war of words.
However, historian Niall Ferguson has warned that US President Barack Obama’s policy of non-intervention, or, as he puts it, his being “resolved only to avoid being George W Bush”, also resembles the incoherent foreign policies of British Liberals a century ago before the First World War.
Against this background, a dispute over five uninhabited islands and three barren rocks looks increasingly dangerous.
China views the “nationalisation” of what it calls the Diaoyu Islands by the Japanese in 2012 as a serious provocation and will do whatever is necessary to assert its sovereignty.
Japan, meanwhile, which calls the territory the Senkaku Islands, is using an ever increasing number of naval ships and warplanes to guard them and is trying to involve the US.
If war were to break out, the US is bound by treaty to come to the aid of Japan.
President Barack Obama has already reaffirmed his recognition of Japan exercising its administrative rights over the Senkaku Islands.
The mounting unease between the two nations was made abundantly clear at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used his keynote speech to take a very public jab at China.
He didn’t name Japan’s old rival, but called for restrained military expansion in Asia.
China has had double-digit increases in defence spending each year for the past decade, but Abe warned: “The dividend of growth in Asia must not be wasted on military expansion.
“If peace and stability were shaken in Asia, the knock-on effect for the entire world would be enormous.”
Abe probably sees China as a modern-day imperial Germany that is prone to aggressive behaviour
Brad Williams, a professor of Asian and International Studies at the City University of Hong Kong
At the start of the year he also made his comparison to the tensions that led to the Great War.
Brad Williams, a professor of Asian and International Studies at the City University of Hong Kong, said: “Abe probably sees China as a modern-day imperial Germany that is prone to aggressive behaviour.
“That, of course, could trigger conflict despite the deep economic inter-dependence between the two countries.”
China, predictably, was furious.
Its Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang responded: “What is the significance of making such comparisons? He suggested it was better for Japan to reflect on the atrocities its soldiers committed during the bloodthirsty invasion of China in 1937.
In recent days, China has stepped up its efforts to embarrass Japan on the world stage with plans to create a new holiday to mark the Nanjing massacre, when Japanese troops murdered and raped tens of thousands of Chinese.
Japan’s leaders have repeatedly expressed regret for their wartime actions in Asia, but the wounds run deep in China.
However, Chinese president Xi Jinping, is due to visit Germany late next month as part of a European tour and it seems Beijing wants to emphasise wartime atrocities by suggesting a presidential visit to Berlin’s Holocaust Memorial.
In increasingly bizarre interjections, both the Chinese and Japanese ambassadors to Britain have compared each other’s military ambitions to Harry Potter villain “Lord Voldemort”.
Tokyo Foundation research fellow Bonji Ohara believes an escalation to serious violence is unlikely. He says politicians on both sides are merely playing to a domestic audience.
He added: “The United States, of course, doesn’t want to have a military clash in this region so it will stop both sides fighting.”
Washington and Beijing are engaged in diplomatic efforts but it is thought the White House does agree with Japan’s insistence that escalation could be avoided if it had emergency military hotlines with China.
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