CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER: HOW THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD READ CHINA'S AYUNGIN SHOAL POSTURING, Roilo Golez, 19 March 2014

"Today, I believe China's next move is to seize and occupy Ayungin Shoal, placing in grave jeopardy our Philippine Marine detachment there. China has a window of opportunity which is prior to the implementation of the “Agreement on Enhanced Defense Cooperation” that will give US forces access to the country's military bases. Seizing Ayungin will be  a child's play for China compared to their brutality in seizing the Paracels from Vietnam in 1974 and in the 1988 naval encounter in the Johnson Reef area where three Vietnamese ships were sunk and more than 70 Vietnamese sailors killed."

"But China's more important goal is the seizure of Recto Bank, this huge oil rich table mount owned by the Philippines, just off Palawan, and long the subject of proposed oil exploration by the Philippines as early as in the 1980's even before the Malampaya facility. But work was halted because of China's bullying tactics. "     

"The Philippines must prepare for China's move on Ayungin, in the event the irrational, territorial minds in China prevail and they adopt a military solution to their Ayungin objective placing in grave jeopardy our Philippine Marine detachment there, towards their goal of seizing the Recto Bank."

"We should now accelerate our defense build-up that can provide us a credible, potent defense capability that we can use in a few months, at most a year, to complement the big ticket items that we plan to procure, like brand new frigates and the FA-50s from South Korea that will become available only in three to four years after the orders are consummated. We needed that credible, potent defense capability yesterday." 

                                                        Roilo Golez

                                                        

CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER: HOW THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD READ CHINA'S AYUNGIN SHOAL POSTURING

By Roilo Golez, Former National Security Adviser and Congressman for Six Terms serving as Chairman of the House Committee on National Defense, 19 March 2014

On December 7, 1999, more than fourteen years ago, I delivered a privilege speech in Congress in response to China's very hostile and aggressive warnings about Scarborough Shoal the previous month, November 1999. In that speech, I made a very clear warning about China's moves in the South China Sea, beginning with their seizure and conversion of our Panganiban Reef (Mischief Reef) into a military installation, to wit:

"The answer, Mr. Speaker, is military posturing. Scarborough Shoal is part of China’s military projection at the South China Sea.
"In Scarborough Shoal, China has found a perfect forward fortress at the east to back up its slow but nonstop political and naval march towards the north, where there are Korea, Japan, Taiwan, among others. China has unleashed a blob at the South China Sea, floating eastward, growing slowly, menacingly, nearly unopposed, devouring every speck, every shoal and reef along the way.
"Chinese military contingents are already positioned in various reefs, islets, and rocks of the South China Sea Region, particularly in the Spratlys and the Paracels. Scarborough Shoal is just one more step forward in their bid to secure full control of the world’s second busiest international sea lane."

In April 2012, exploiting a legal action on our part to protect the natural resources within our Exclusive Economic Zone, China took control of Scaborough Shoal, using their white navy, seizing a feature that is well within our EEZ. Worse, they used diplomatic sleight of hands to make good their grab, accepting a proposed mutual pull-out, but reneged after our ships left to ease the stand-off tension. 

Now we have the Ayungin Shoal situation. We have the BRP Sierra Madre there, with a small detachment of Philippine marines. Ayungin is well within our EEZ, only 105 nautical miles from Palawan, yet, distant China claims this feature. We have been maintaining that detachment for more than ten years and resupplying them regularly, even while shadowed by Chinese coast guard and surveillance ships, even navy frigates, illegally prowling within our EEZ.

But last week, China exacerbated the situation by blocking our civilian supply ships, preventing them from performing a humanitarian food mission. 

This was how it was reported in the news:

China warns PHL vs. ‘occupation’ of disputed Ayungin Shoal

"BEIJING - China warned the Philippines on Monday to abandon a disputed shoal in the South China Sea after Manila said it planned to challenge a Chinese naval blockade of the area by sending supplies to its troops stationed there.

"Last week, a senior Philippines military official said his country would send civilian supply ships to its soldiers deployed on a vessel that ran aground on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. The shoal is known in China as the Ren'ai reef and in the Philippines as Ayungin.

"The Chinese government's attitude on maintaining the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering. We will never tolerate the Philippines' illegal occupation of Ren'ai reef," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily news briefing.

"China is on high alert for the Philippines possibly taking more provocative acts in the South China Sea. The Philippines must accept responsibility for the consequences of what will happen," he added.'

Note the phrasing of the warning. It now sounds like an ultimatum with the stern words: 

"The Philippines must accept responsibility for the consequences of what will happen."

Last 1999, I warned about China's plan to seize Scarborough Shoal. It happened, in accordance with China's long history of stealthy, creeping strategy of seizing her neighbor's territory, over land and sea.

Today, I believe China's next move is to seize and occupy Ayungin Shoal, placing in grave jeopardy our Philippine Marine detachment there. China has a window of opportunity which is prior to the implementation of the “Agreement on Enhanced Defense Cooperation” that will give US forces access to the country's military bases. Seizing Ayungin will be  a child's play for China compared to their brutality in seizing the Paracels from Vietnam in 1974 and in the 1988 naval encounter in the Johnson Reef area where three Vietnamese ships were sunk and more than 70 Vietnamese sailors killed.

Note the Paracels location relative to China, Vietnam, the Spratlys and the Philippines:

And now here is Ayungin Shoal relative to the other key features in the vicinity.  

This map explains why China lusts for our Ayungin Shoal. 

It is very close to Panganiban Reef (Mischief Reef) and a Philippine military presence there is a threat to China's illegal occupation of Mischief Reef. China's military occupation of Ayungin would give them two stations mutually supporting each other. Ayungin would be a very potent part of their "string of pearls" to the East of the South China Sea with its northernmost outpost and in strategic Scarborough Shoal. 

But China's more important goal is the seizure of Recto Bank, this huge oil rich table mount owned by the Philippines, just off Palawan, and long the subject of proposed oil exploration by the Philippines as early as in the 1980's even before the Malampaya facility. Work there was halted because of China's bullying tactics. 

This is an estimate of the economic value of the Recto Bank: "Recto Bank in the West Philippine Sea could hold up to 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, a new report by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA)."

A recent news is that a Philippine Business Group offered to have a joint venture with China but this was rejected, per this report:

"CHINESE FIRM JUNKS MVP OFFER ON REED BANK PROJECT

March 9, 2014 11:24 pm

by THERESA MARTELINO-REYES
VERA FILES

"A state-owned Chinese oil firm has rejected the proposal of business tycoon Manuel V. Pangilinan to invest in a contract to drill in the disputed Reed Bank but welcomed “innovative” proposals on how it can participate, according to a memorandum Pangilinan submitted to President Benigno Aquino 3rd.

"State-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) turned down the offer made by Pangilinan, chairman and chief executive officer of Philex Petroleum Corp, in a meeting on May 2, 2012.

The Philippines must prepare for China's move on Ayungin, in the event the irrational, territorial minds in China prevail and they adopt a military solution to their Ayungin objective placing in grave jeopardy our Philippine Marine detachment there, towards their goal of seizing the Recto Bank.

We should now accelerate our defense build-up that can provide us a credible, potent defense capability that we can use in a few months, at most a year, to complement the big ticket items that we plan to procure, like brand new frigates and the FA-50s from South Korea that will become available only in three to four years after the orders are consummated. We needed that credible, potent defense capability yesterday.

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