Ukraine crisis: Is Russia done after Crimea?
March 24, 2014 -- Updated 1614 GMT (0014 HKT)
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- NATO commander has expressed concern about buildup of Russian forces
- Kiev fears forces may be ready to push into Russian-speaking communities in Ukraine's east
- Fears are also mounting that Russia is eyeing Moldova's separatist Transnistria region
- Many of half-million in Transnistria are renewing calls to join Russian Federation
(CNN) -- Across Ukraine's eastern border, Russian troops continue massing. Kiev fears it may be an invasion force ready to push into Russian-speaking communities in eastern Ukraine. Others are concerned that Moscow's expansion plans may not stop at Crimea and that other former Soviet states may follow.
NATO's top commander has voiced worries Moscow's forces could roll into Moldova's separatist region Transnistria on the opposite side of Ukraine. Since Moscow annexed Crimea last week, many of the half-million people in that small, impoverished region have renewed calls to join the Russian Federation, too.
Will other regions in Ukraine or Moldova be the next West-East Europe flashpoint?
Where is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a breakaway region of the former Soviet state of Moldova. The Russian speakers of Transnistria seceded from Moldova in 1990, a year before the Soviet Union's dissolution, amid fears that Moldova would shortly merge with neighboring Romania, whose language and culture it broadly shares.
The separatist region fought a brief war with Moldova in 1992, and it declared itself an independent state, but it remains unrecognized by any country.
Attempts to resolve the dispute have made little progress, with Russian troops standing guard, acting as peacekeepers.
Transnistria is already beyond the control of the Moldovan government. Just as a statue of Lenin overlooks the main square in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, so another stands outside Transnistria's regional assembly in Tiraspol. A 2006 referendum produced a 97.2% vote in favor of joining Russia, a slightly higher score than in Crimea's recent referendum.
Unlike Crimea, however, landlocked Transnistria is far from Russia, wedged between Moldova and Ukraine. It's a sliver of territory along the Dniester River, with about 30% of its population ethnic Russian.
Why are people worried?
Until now, Russia has officially recognized Transnistria as being part of Moldova. But events in Ukraine may have shifted Moscow's calculation, some say.
During a trip last week to Moscow, Mikhail Burla, speaker of Transnistria's separatist parliament, urged Russia to incorporate the region, according to reports from the Russian capital.
On Sunday, NATO's top military commander, Gen. Philip Breedlove, said the Russian force at the Ukrainian border now to the east was "very, very sizable and very, very ready."
"There is absolutely sufficient force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transnistria if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome," said Breedlove, a U.S. Air Force general.
What about Moldova?
One of Europe's poorest countries, Moldova has been governed by pro-Western leaders since 2009. It has clinched an association agreement with the European Union, as currently sought by the pro-Western leaders who came to power in Ukraine after the removal of Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovych.
The small country of 3.5 million people is, like Ukraine, indebted to Moscow for natural gas imports that help keep its economy afloat. As with Ukraine, Russia opposes Moldova's efforts to build links with the EU.
Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti has warned Russia not to consider any move to take over Transnistria in the same way it wrestled Crimea away from Kiev.
Timofti has echoed criticism from Ukraine's pro-Western leaders, the United States and EU countries when speaking of Russia's actions in the Black Sea peninsula.
And Ukrainian fears?
For Kiev's new leaders, the most immediate concern is not Transnistria but a growing separatist sentiment in its cities closest to its eastern border with Russia.
"We are very much concerned about this development and deployment of Russian troops on our eastern borders," acting Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia said on ABC's "This Week." "We are ready to respond."
A senior U.S. defense official told CNN on Monday that Russia "has enough troops that we believe they could move against Ukraine at any time now."
The official emphasized the United States still does not know Russia's intentions on the border. U.S. intelligence indicates the Russian forces are positioned possibly to go after three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk. Russian forces have moved so close to the border, there would be no warning time, and the United States would likely only see an incursion as it was happening.
In the past few weeks, there have been pro-Russian rallies in cities such as Donetsk, Yanukovych's home city. The latest over the weekend, however, were small, with organizers saying only a few thousand people rallied.
"What is happening in Kiev is not for me. Russia, Crimea, Belarus are mine, they are our brothers, we are with them, and I want to appeal -- 'Putin help us,' " Donetsk resident Vasily Anenko said -- cries that have become increasingly heard in the area.
Kiev has ordered the withdrawal of armed forces from Crimea, citing Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families, effectively yielding the region to Moscow's forces, which stormed one of Kiev's last bases there Monday.
What has Russia said?
Moscow has continuously stated Russia has no intention to move further into Ukraine. The Kremlin says it is simply conducting military exercises.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov was quoted by the state's Itar-Tass news agency Sunday as saying Russia was complying with international agreements limiting the number of troops near its border with Ukraine.
Moscow's ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, said nobody has anything to fear from Russia and that the country does not have any "expansionist views."
Asked to give a commitment that Russian troops would not move into Ukrainian territory outside Crimea, Chizhov told Britain's BBC: "There is no intention of the Russian Federation to do anything like that."
And the West?
In what has become the biggest East-West confrontation since the Cold War, the United States and EU have imposed visa bans and asset freezes on some of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest political and business allies. But they have held back so far from measures designed to hit Russia's wider economy
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was dispatched to meet Polish and Baltic leaders last week in an effort to reassure NATO allies alarmed at the Kremlin's intervention in Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to Moldova in December -- part of a show of support for its pro-Western moves in the face of Russian pressure -- when it signed the key economic and political agreement with the EU. Russia had responded to Moldova's moves toward the EU by cutting off imports of Moldovan wine.
On Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama began crisis talks at a meeting with other leaders of the Group of Seven, a group of industrialized nations that excludes Russia, which joined in 1998 to form the G8. The group is to consider a collective response to the crisis during talks in The Hague, the Netherlands.
"Europe and America are united in our support of the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people," Obama said. "We're united in imposing a cost on Russia for its actions so far. "
Persuading Putin to relinquish Crimea is a goal that now seems beyond reach, and Western officials are likely to seek ways to deter the Russian leader from seizing others parts of Ukraine.
However, persuading Europeans to sign on to tougher sanctions could be a challenge for Obama. The EU does 10 times as much trade with Russia as the United States, and is the biggest customer for Russian oil and gas. The bloc's 28 members also include countries with widely varying relationships with Moscow.
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