What a New York Solar Boom Might Look like Under NY-SUN
Until just a few months ago, the state of solar New York was flying under the radar. With its small market, New York had always been outshadowed by regional neighbors such as Massachusetts and New Jersey. But in January, when a formal request to approve Gov. Cuomo’s $1 billion pledge in funding for the NY-Sun solar initiative was filed to a state commission, the chance that it could achieve a greater potential was unearthed in a whole new light.
The considerable investment would put the state on the path to a solar boom, and within reach to install 3 GW of capacity by 2023 through a portfolio of programs cherry-picked from successful solar efforts in Californiaand Massachusetts, such as virtual net metering, a diminishing megawatt block incentive, a special program for schools and a “green bank” that will aim to accelerate private sector financing.
It’s not a done deal just yet. Next month, the state’s Public Service Commission will vote on the petition[PDF] filed by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. If approved, it will replace last year’s legislation that set a goal for 2.2 GW of installed capacity by 2023.
“The program will give transparency and longevity to the industry,” said Rob Garrity, Borrego Solar‘s director of project development for the Mid-Atlantic region. “We’ve never been so close to being an industry that’s taken seriously for our ability create jobs and be an economic driver as we are now.”
Of all the people in New York, Garrity is one that should know. The 13-year industry veteran said that the state’s solar industry has been in “fits and starts” during its entire history.
But if the expanded funding goes through, it appears that it would overhaul its incentives program from an unpredictable market-based Solar Renewable Energy Credits program with one that would offer clear payment rates through 2023 — giving investors, developers, homeowners and building owners the certainty they need to invest in New York solar. Modeled after the California Solar Initiative (CSI) program — the most successful incentives program in the nation, according to Garrity — incentives would decrease over time as installation costs decreased and total installed capacity increased.
And just like the CSI, New York will divide up its incentives both by geographic region (to reflect different market prices of electricity, land and real estate) as well as by project size.
“With this approach, there’s a lot less speculation and instability like there was with other states such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which took the solar REC route,” Garrity said.
Both states learned a lesson when their solar market plummeted, and Pennsylvania still hasn’t recovered.
“There’s not going to be a gold rush — but that’s great, as we’re in it for the long term,” he said.
Garrity also predicts that there will be a rise in both virtual net metering and net metering due to the project-size specific incentives that will be set up. Though New York passed legislation enabling virtual net metering in 2010, there hasn’t been that much activity, he said, because up to now incentives were only offered on small projects. But in 2012 — when the state presented an incentive for larger projects, developers were able to absorb the net costs of installation, he said.
Gov. Cuomo is also highlighting the potential for NY-Sun to spread solar to the masses via Solarize-style bulk purchasing discounts for homeowners and schools alike. The school K-Solar program would make incentives, financing and technical assistance available to school administrators. And the school itself would be used as a place for the community to gather and rally neighbors around the idea of going solar as a group.
How does Garrity think New York state should plan for the solar market after 2023?
“We’re nearing grid parity,” he said. “That’s our plan 10 years from now. So the necessities for incentives will be smaller.”
Brooklyn solar installation photo CC-licensed by 350.org on Flickr.
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