Can China do a Crimea in the South China Sea? By Roilo Golez, 5 April 2014

Can China do a Crimea in the South China Sea?

By Roilo Golez, 5 April 2014

Those who warn and holler that China might do a Crimea in the South China Sea should review their geography and geopolitics. One must be aware of the  often irresistible force of geography in predicting geopolitical scenarios.

Please note this Map of the Black Sea and note where Crimea is situated relative to Russia, the rest of Ukraine and possible entry points of those who might want to help.

The Black Sea where Crimea is located is isolated from the rest of the world and is dominated by Russian land, sea and air power. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol and that Fleet alone can decide the matter. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has 41 warships and has no viable challenger, except Turkey, but I don't think Turkey would want to get involved there.  Russia's land forces can march from various directions should there be a NATO response. Thus, it is obvious that Russia has near absolute dominance in Crimea, not to mention its mass support among the inhabitants of Crimea.

On the other hand, this is the South China Sea:

Unlike the Black Sea, the South China Sea is not isolated. There are powers in the area with access to the South China Sea. The dominant power is not China but the United States, a treaty ally of the Philippines. The US is also a treaty ally of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand all of which have a stake in the South China Sea and have forces that can be brought to bear in a South China Sea conflict. India, a major power, is lurking in the vicinity, Indonesia is also a potential player with part of her Natuna Sea included within China's nine-dash line.

And the US has spoken loud and clear in a US Senate hearing just two days ago as reported by international news as follows: 

'WASHINGTON—“There should be no doubt about the resolve of the United States. We stand by our allies and we stand by our commitments,” Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for East Asia, told a Senate panel that oversees the region.'

Will China do a Crimea in the South China Sea? Crime, yes, they've done that with Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal, but Crimea, I don't believe so, unless the irrational leaders decide the day, thinking the US would renege on her treaty obligations.

Crime, yes. Crimea, no.