Chances of war between China and Japan increasing, says ex-PLA officer Luo Yuan
A retired senior officer in the People’s Liberation Army has said a war with Japan over territorial disputes is becoming increasing likely and that China is more than capable of defending itself.
But other military experts are far from convinced the PLA would win any future conflict, despite China’s rapid military build-up and modernisation.
Some cite the PLA’s lack of battle experience as well as serious technological weaknesses in some areas, including aircraft engines, that could hinder the PLA’s fighting capability. This only created greater uncertainty over the likely outcome of any military conflict between Asia’s two largest economies, they said.
China and Japan moved closer to armed conflict after Beijing established its first air defence identification zone last November in the East China Sea to include the disputed Diaoyu Islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan, Major General Luo Yuan told the South China Morning Post.
“China should remain in a high state of vigilance because Japan has a history of creating small incidents that triggered military conflicts,” Luo said. He cited the Manchurian incident in 1931 and the Marco Polo Bridge incident in 1937 as flashpoints created by the Japanese military as an excuse to escalate military conflict and occupy areas of Chinese territory.
Luo, who is also a vice president of a Beijing-based think tank of retired military officers, the China Strategy Culture Promotion Association, dismissed suggestions by some Japanese media that the country had air combat superiority because of its pilots and crews greater experience and training.
“That conclusion is a deceptive tactic played by the Japanese side to confuse the public,” Luo said.
The PLA has deployed its most advanced aircraft and logistical support at military bases along the mainland’s southeast coast, a move designed to show how well the army was prepared for any possible military conflict in the area.
“So far all aircraft sent by both countries to the Diaoyu waters were third-generation fighter jets. The PLA’s newest and most advanced planes entered service at the turn of this century, including the J-10, J-11B and the [Russian-made] Su-27,” said Luo.
“In contrast, Japan just has deployed to the region only about 30 F-15Js, which their air force has used since the 1980s.”
Luo declined to say how many fighter jets the PLA would mobilise in an armed conflict, but said China had an overwhelming advantage in the number and types of aircraft available.
“China has several military airports along the southeast coast which could provide effective logistical support to PLA fighter jets because those air force bases are much closer to the Diaoyu,” he said.
“But in Japan, there is just one airport close to the Diaoyus, Naha airport in Okinawa.”
Satellite images first emerged in 2009 of a military airbase at Shuimen in Fujian province, about 380 kilometres from the Diaoyu, with J-10s, Su-30 fighters and drones dispatched to the base, according to reports by the media in Taiwan.
The Canada-based magazine Kanwa Asian Defence said the PLA’s missile strategic force had also deployed its S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile batteries at bases in Fujian since 2012.
Ni Lexiong, director of a defence policy research centre at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said he was not convinced the PLA would have the upper hand in any conflict.
“It’s a fact that China’s logistical support near the Diaoyu is better than Japan’s because military bases in Fujian and Zhejiang province have been ready for war with Taiwan since the 1950s.
“But we shouldn’t ignore the Americans, who would play a decisive role in any armed conflict between China and Japan.”
Luo argued the US would not intervene in any conflict.
Washington realised that Japan would use disputes with China as a steppingstone to free Tokyo from US control to become a “normal country” with its own constitution and army, he said. Since the second world war Japan has maintained a “self defence force” governed by a constitution based on non-aggression.
Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said that if hostilities did break out with Japan, all military bases and facilities on land and sea would be targets for bombing.
“China has more fighter jets than Japan, but one Japanese pilot is probably equivalent to at least three PLA pilots due to their intensive training and joint drills with the US air force,” he said.
“Japan has refitted their F-15Js, and their forces based in Okinawa are their best-equipped, most experienced flying corps.”
Wong said joint battle operations between different branches of the military was still a challenge for the PLA, while Japan’s self-defence force have been trained by their US ally for decades.
“The PLA has numerical superiority in weapons, but that’s not a key reason for victory,” he said.
“Don’t forget, the Qing dynasty’s Imperial Fleet, was dubbed the most powerful navy in Asia due to its weaponry. But the whole fleet was sunk or captured by the Imperial Japanese Navy in 1894 during the First Sino-Japanese war.”
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