Tuesday, April 8, 2014

South China Sea: Regional States Push Back Against China, The Diplomat, 7 April 2014

South China Sea: Regional States Push Back Against China


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On March 18, officials from China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in Singapore to resume consultations on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea that began last September. This meeting should have created an atmosphere for the lowering of tensions in the South China Sea. At the least, China and the ASEANclaimant states could have been expected to avoid provocations while the consultations were progressing.
Just the opposite occurred. Nine days before the ASEAN-China discussions commenced, Chinese Coast Guard vessels stationed at Second Thomas Shoal took the unprecedented action of blocking routine resupply for Philippine Marines stationed at the shoal.
At the end of March, as the deadline approached for the Philippines to submit its memorial to the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal set up to hear Philippine claims regarding its maritime entitlements under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), China unleashed a shrill diplomatic attack on the Philippines.
In the midst of these developments, South China Sea claimant states began to push back against China’s assertiveness.
Indonesia and the Philippines both took steps to shore up their maritime defense forces against future contingencies in the South China Sea. Vietnam pressed China for compensation for harassing its fishermen in disputed waters around the Paracel Islands while quietly taking delivery of its second Kilo-class submarine.
Resupplying Second Thomas Shoal
On March 9, two Chinese Coast Guard ships stationed at Second Thomas Shoal (known as Ayungin shoal in the Philippines and Ren’ai Reef in China) intercepted two Philippine-flagged civilian vessels making a routine resupply run to the shoal and ordered them to return to port. The vessels were carrying supplies to Philippine Marines deployed at the shoal on the BRP Sierra Madre, a beached LST still in commission in the Philippine Navy.
This was first time Chinese ships had physically interfered in this manner.
The Philippines responded by summoning a senior Chinese diplomat to the Department of Foreign Affairs to deliver a protest. The Chinese official was told that the actions by the Coast Guard ships were “a clear and urgent threat to the rights and interests of the Philippines.”
A spokesperson for the United States Department of State went on record as saying that “This is a provocative move that raises tensions. Pending resolution of competing claims in the South China Sea, there should be no interference with the efforts of claimants to maintain the status quo.”
China’s Foreign Ministry accused the Philippines of attempting to build structures on Second Thomas Shoal in violation of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).  This accusation ignored the fact that the Philippines had occupied Second Thomas Shoal three years before the DOC was issued.
The Philippines then resorted to airdrops to resupply the Marines. On March 29, the Philippines mounted a second resupply effort by sea. The Philippine supply vessel was once again challenged by two Coast Guard ships who ordered it to “stop all” illegal activities. The resupply vessel outwitted the Chinese ships by sailing through waters too shallow for them to follow.
This turn of events led a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson to accuse the Philippines of illegally occupying Chinese territory.
As of this writing, the standoff continues and it remains to be seen if China will reinforce its presence at Second Thomas Shoal and adopt even more aggressive tactics to prevent future Philippine resupply efforts.
China may be constrained, however, by the impending visit of President Barack Obama to the Philippines in April.
Philippines Submits Memorial to the Arbitral Tribunal
On March 30, the Philippines submitted its memorial to the UN Arbitral Tribunal outlining its case for a determination of its maritime entitlements under international law. The Philippines’ memorial comprised 10 volumes running to more than 4,000 pages.
The Philippine claim, initially filed in January, was amended to include Ayungin Shoal in light of China’s actions in blocking supply.
The Philippines made its submission despite intense pressure by China on the Philippines to drop its claim and resume direct bilateral negotiations.
Immediately prior to the Philippines’ submission, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly called on the Philippines “to stop its wrongdoing” and withdraw from arbitral proceedings. The spokesperson also declared that China “will neither accept the unilateral action of the Philippines nor be present in the international arbitration.” This refrain was repeated by other Chinese officials.
On March 30, China’s Foreign Ministry called on the Philippines to honor their commitments under the DOC “and return to the correct path of bilateral talks in resolving disputes.” The following day the Foreign Ministry summoned Erlinda Basilo, the Philippine Ambassador to China, to receive a “solemn representation” from Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin. Liu noted that China was “extremely dissatisfied and resolutely opposed” to the international arbitration.
On April 1, the Chinese Charge d’Affairs in Manila issued a strongly worded statement that declared, “we are deeply disturbed by and concerned with the consequences of such moves.” The Charge then stated that the actions by the Philippines “seriously damaged bilateral relations.”
Claimant States Push Back
In late February, it became apparent that Indonesian defense officials were growing increasingly concerned about Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and the implications this held for the island archipelago.
On February 27, the chief of Indonesia’s National Defense Force (TNI), General Moeldoko, announced that Indonesia would reinforce its military presence around the Natuna islands. According to Moeldoko:
Since Natuna is strategically located, the increase of its forces at sea, on the ground, and in the air is necessary to anticipate any instability in the South China Sea and serve as an early warning system for Indonesia and the TNI.
General Moeldoko announcement carried special weight because it came immediately after he returned from a visit to China where he reaffirmed Indonesia’s neutrality in maritime territorial disputes.
Indonesia has already completed considerable upgrading of its facilities at the Ranai Air Base on Riau Island, including the installation of integrated radar and runway and taxi lights. The air base currently houses Hawk 109/209 light fighters.
Indonesia plans to extend the runway and build new hangers to accommodate Su-27 and Su-30 jet fighters as well as the more capable F-16 air superiority fighters.
Indonesia is in the process of acquiring three Type-209 conventional submarines from South Korea, and two Dutch Sigma frigates.
On March 12, Air Commodore Fahru Zaini, assigned to the defense strategy unit of the Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, revealed that China’s inclusion of part of the Natuna islands within its nine-dash line claims to the South China Sea affected “the Unitary State of Indonesia.”
In late March, Indonesia hosted the inaugural Komodo Multilateral Naval Exercise involving seventeen countries including ASEAN members and dialogue partners. The Komodo exercises will take place in the waters around Riau province, including Natuna.
Commodore Amarullah Octavian, director of the joint maritime exercise, was unusually blunt in discussing Indonesia’s political agenda behind the Komodo Exercise. On March 28, in remarks to a planning meeting reported in the Indonesian press, Commodore Amarullah was quoted as stating:
The exercise will focus on naval capabilities in disaster relief, but we will also pay attention to the aggressive stance of the Chinese government by entering the Natuna area. We want to explain that our laws stipulate that Natuna is part of Indonesia.
Commodore Amarullah also stated that the Indonesia Navy would distribute exercise maps clearly indicating that Natuna island fell within Indonesia’s national boundaries. “Therefore,” he argued, “diplomatically all countries have recognized all Indonesian borders.”
Meanwhile, on March 16, in the midst of deteriorating relations with China, Philippine President Benigno Aquino announced in a speech during graduation ceremonies at the Philippines Military Academy new arms procurements totaling $670 million.
The funds will be used to purchase twelve South Korean FA-50 dual-role fighter-trainer jets ($420 million), eight Canadian Bell 412 combat utility helicopters ($100 million), and two anti-submarine helicopters. The new fighters will revive the air combat wing disbanded several years ago. The FA-50s are expected to enter service next year.
The Philippines, which is already committed to spend 40 billion pesos ($890 million) by 2017, has put out tenders for two frigates. It is negotiating with France for the acquisition of five patrol boats and with South Korea for several multi-role strategic sea lift vessels.
On March 24, the Vietnamese newspaper Thanh Nien reported that Vietnam had requested the Chinese government to investigate allegations of assaults on Vietnamese fishermen by paramilitary state vessels in the waters surrounding the Paracel Islands. Further, Vietnam demanded compensation for the loss of equipment and fish.
In addition, Vietnam’s acquisition of conventional Kilo (Varshavyanka-class) submarines picked up the pace in March. On March 2, Russia handed over Vietnam’s third submarine, HQ 184 Hai Phong, at the Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. It is currently undergoing sea trials.
At the end of the month, Vietnam’s second submarine, HQ 183 Ho Chi Minh City, was delivered to Cam Ranh Bay, while Vietnam’s fourth submarine, HQ 185 Khanh Hoa, was launched at official ceremonies in St. Petersburg.
On April 4, Vietnam held an official flag raising ceremony at Cam Ranh Bay for the first two submarines.
Indonesia, like Malaysia, has been circumspect in responding to Chinese challenges to its sovereign jurisdiction in its maritime domain. Heretofore unpublicized reports of encounters between Chinese paramilitary ships and Indonesian vessels reveal that the “softly, softly” approach adopted by Jakarta has not resulted in a reduction of Chinese-initiated confrontations.
However, China’s increasing assertiveness this year – announcing the right to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea, imposing a fishing ban on nearly sixty percent of the South China Sea, symbolic claims to sovereignty over James Shoal off Malaysia, blocking efforts by the Philippines to resupply Marines at Second Thomas Shoal, and diplomatic heavy-handedness in response to the Philippines’ submission of its memorial to the UN Arbitral Tribunal – coupled with less publicized encounters with Chinese paramilitary ships, explains why the Philippines, Vietnam, and, most remarkably, Indonesia are pushing back.
COMMENTS
52
ROC
April 8, 2014 at 18:47
be aware that china, russian, and vietnam are allied? these countries supported by UAE ,who have ambition to grab the New York(wall street). The US most be friend to iran, becouse iran is a TRUE friend.
Ivan
April 8, 2014 at 11:43
Is this going to be the future map of China?
Angela Merkel know something?
http://www.chinafile.com/Merkel-Map-Message-China
Louis
April 8, 2014 at 12:20
Yeah, its her message to chairman Xi – here is what China should get. You can’t be too big unnaturally when you are too small naturally.
MYK
April 8, 2014 at 16:14
I thought that 1735 map was really funny too, as on that map, it says “China Proper” or what Merkel stated was the ‘First’ accurate map of China by a French cartographer d’Anville at the time.
The Chinese were really offended by the d’Anville map that excluded Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, Hainan island and even Formosa as under China’s ‘ancient times’ ownership.
What was really funny, was that Chinese media instead showcased the 1844 map by Dower as the map that Merkel presented as a gift to Xi Jinping. I guess the Chinese school children would be ‘shocked’ to learn what China really looked like back in 1735, while throwing that Chinese rhetoric of owning these lands since ‘ancient times’ into chaos. :)
MYK
April 8, 2014 at 16:27
Back in China, they aren’t revealing the 1735 map that Merkel presented to Xi, but instead, are showcasing a map made in 1844 that has China owning Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, and the entire region called……………Siberia!
Oh wait! But doesn’t Russia own Siberia today also by referendum in 1945? :)
C6
April 8, 2014 at 22:07
She got guts. Steely and calm. Everybody knows what game Chinese communist party is playing. Come on !
Kwa Khang
April 8, 2014 at 11:30
NO TO COMMUNIST HEGEMONY!!! it’s as simple as that.
brunt
April 8, 2014 at 10:45
To present some nuances and use them to describe relationships between states is quite myopic.
For China, and ASEANS, economic development is still the most important task. Any noises and traps should be listened and viewed as distraction.
C6
April 8, 2014 at 22:11
yeah, whatever you say. Keep playing the Chinese communist party broken record.
brunt
April 8, 2014 at 23:39
Broken record?
China has not lost one inch territory since 1949 just because some one asked her to do so, or threaten her to do so.
John Hight
April 8, 2014 at 10:12
China is a coward. Bullying smaller nations. 9-dash claim drawn by a 2 year old does not make it law.
Louis
April 8, 2014 at 12:22
Oh no, you hurt the feeling of Chinese people!
Chino hills
April 8, 2014 at 08:59
Bilateral negotiations with china is exactly what any country with disputes with It needs to avoid.
The Philippines tried that and what did the CCP do?they took mischief and now scarborough shoal too.
Both sea features are well within its EEZ and are ridiculously too far from China to have a legal claim to it.
Jen Whitten
April 8, 2014 at 08:32
This is an excellent summary of the situation in the South China Sea. Maybe the multiple territorial disputes will prompt ASEAN (at least those members of it that aren’t in China’s pocket) to pool their militaries into a regional version of NATO, a SEATO for the 21st century.
Ivan
April 8, 2014 at 11:24
Extremely difficult to do because of interoperablilty issues.
Jen Whitten
April 8, 2014 at 12:03
“Regarding China’s neighbors, the key question is whether they will join forces with the United States and balance against China, or bandwagon with a rising China. Some observers might argue that there is a third option, which is to sit on the sidelines and remain neutral. It will not be possible, however, for countries in Asia to sit this one out. Almost every state will have to choose sides, not just because Beijing and Washington will put enormous pressure on them to choose their side, but also because most of those states—which are much weaker than either China or the United States—will reasonably want to have a powerful protector in the event their security is threatened. Given the survival imperative, most of China’s neighbors will opt to balance against it, much the way most of the countries in Northeast Asia and Europe that were free to choose in the Cold War opted to join with the United States against the Soviet Union. The reason is simple: China poses a more serious threat to most countries in Asia than the United States does, and states invariably balance against their most dangerous foe, not bandwagon with it.”
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204
John
April 8, 2014 at 12:36
@Jen,
China is bad neighbor for sure. The problem for those weaker states is their doubtful of US commitment. Remember during the last days of Vietnam war, when US got China in his camp; it dumped and abandoned the ally, South Vietnam resulted in the fall of Saigon?. Worse, the US stood by watching commie China took Paracels from the South Vietnamese. I guess this still plays in the SK, Japanese and Filipinos ‘s mind. For many Americans, especially the Vietnam vets, this is disgrace and for many US administrations, they tried not talk about this.
vic
April 8, 2014 at 06:47
There are no real conflicts but imagined ones. Take the Philippine’s case, it is staking a water claim by supplying the needs of a few marines living inside a deliberately grounded derelict. How ridiculous can things get.
Mrmccaffery
April 8, 2014 at 08:13
What is ridiculous is China’s claim to the South China Sea based on a single KMT 1947 map. It is China who caused real conflict by this claim. And when Chinese ships chase out fishermen who have been plying their nation’s coastal waters for generations, the conflict is made real by the CCP’s arrogance and aggression.
Ivan
April 8, 2014 at 11:48
I swear that CCP basing their claims on an old KMT-ROC map is a higher diety’s attempt at humor, to make both of them look like 2 sides of the same coin.
Both intellectually bankrupt.
C6
April 8, 2014 at 22:22
If it’s “imagine” why stop them? How ridiculous can the Chinese communist party get when you chase innocent fishermen trying to make a decent living in their own EEZ ! Your belligerent behaviour is not endearing you to the greater Chinese diaspora !
Little Helmsman
April 8, 2014 at 06:32
I think the entire region has awoken and has sober view about Communist China’s true intentions are. We are entering a period of the ugly Chinese so their actions truly reflect the society of which mainland Chinese come from. A heavy handed, crude dictatorship will always be a belligerent power. China’s rulers are actually doing a disservice to ordinary Chinese by making the image of their country more negative than it should be.
Ivan
April 8, 2014 at 07:19
One of the interesting things about tin pot dictatorships is they treat foreigners better than their own people, for they fear that the foreigners have voices they cannot control or silence.
What is happening now is the PRC is losing some of the inhibition they had since the 1950s because of their fear of their own people rising up and taking revenge on the PRC-CCP for a half century of misrule.
CCP is trying to focus the debate on economic growth (recent, not too far back), on what prestige the PRC has abroad, whether it stems from fear or what not, and on their other achievements.
But deep down, they realize how serious their situation is, and how little time and space they have to either get it right, or get a stack of rebellion on their hands.
Look that the MH370 next of kin. If they are so willing to take on the CCP, what does that say for someone with some real grievances and organization and power behind them… like your average warlord.
Talking points
April 8, 2014 at 06:03
This author resort to fabrication and distortion to tell a story. It is Philipines who took the chance to supply re enforcement construction materials. China has all the right to stop it. The provocator is Phillipines, not China.
The items raise by the author are inconsequencial.
Temujin
April 8, 2014 at 06:33
Typical chinese, fabricated lies to support your conclusion. Why china so afraid to go to world court along with Philiipines? only way independently verified by the world. China cannot hide behind the lie anymore, the world is watching you.
Louis
April 8, 2014 at 09:58
What typical is what we call “(….) with Chinese characteristics”. You can put anything you want in the brackets and you have a perfect formula for the Chinese dream.
Ivan
April 8, 2014 at 07:10
Yes indeed.
One Chinese people.
One right.
Under one party.
carl thayer
April 8, 2014 at 07:27
Facts, such as the grounding of the Philippine BRP Sierra Madre in 1999 before the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea was adopted in November 2002 are consequential. The Philippine ship is still in commission and is thus entitled to sovereign immunity under international law. We only have vague Chinese allegations that the Philippine resupply boats were carrying “construction materials.” But we have established facts that China has built on its maritime features in the South China Sea after 2002 – aerial reconnaissance photos and satellite imagery. This historical record shows that China has upset the status quo by failing to exercise restraint. China cannot claim sovereignty over a feature that is neither an island or a rock.
Temujin
April 8, 2014 at 11:41
I am 100 percent agreed with you Sir! It seem to me that China’s greed is outgrow its size. I never heard America laid claims to entire Gulf of Mexico, we shared with Mexico and other nation states. China is quiet on the opposite side when their national power is still very weak relatively compare to America, they claim virtually entire West Philippines Sea. Can anyone imagine what will they lay claims when their national power is the size of America? Russia Siberia and/or Australia?
Mandirigma
April 8, 2014 at 07:48
Ah so you if you were in our shoes you would let your troops die of starvation? What was the proof they had building materials? What good would it have done if there were building materials? The derlict ship is already there. I think you guys don’t really know the words “provacateurs” and “terrorists” that you guys hurled at us more than once. Tsk tsk.
Talking points
April 8, 2014 at 17:31
Who cares about a misspell? It is a foreign language anyway.
The ship will break down, let’s see how you guys deal with it. Dare you.
Edgar
April 8, 2014 at 16:03
Let’s make it clear. The Main Intentions of that Philippine Ships was to re-supply foods, water and other basic needs for the soldiers and the scheduled rotation of the soldiers stationed in that area. That ship does not carry any building materials. Your comments reflects that you where just brainwashed by your liar Chinese Gov’t.
C6
April 8, 2014 at 22:29
“china has all the right to stop it” yeah, keep saying that.
Cathy Yang
April 8, 2014 at 05:26
It looks like China needs to pay (literally) a visit to Laos and do another Cambodia thing, soon! Time is running out and 1 by 1, ASEAN claimants wake up – appeasements don’t work. The next domino to fall? No question, it’s Malaysia especially after the MH370 run-in with “big country” China!
David L
April 8, 2014 at 05:13
With the exception of Japan and South Korea, the SE Asian nation really stand no chance even if they were all to unite.
applesauce
April 8, 2014 at 06:05
your statement makes no sense as SK and japan are not in SE Asia
John
April 8, 2014 at 03:20
You cannot go around the world and redefine boundaries and violate territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations by force, coercion or intimidation. China regime look very much like Nazi Germany in1938.
Temujin
April 8, 2014 at 03:18
If china want respect from its neighbors, it must first scale back its greedy ambitions. Land grabbed from Tibetans, Ughurs, Mongolian, and the Manchurian are not enough? when it is going to be enough? China want Australia and Russian Siberia too? China regime look very much like Nazi Germany in 1938. You cannot go around the world and redefine boundaries and violate territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations by force, coercion or intimidation.
Observer
April 8, 2014 at 00:46
Look like smaller nations with claims in the SCS are learning fast. You can either be strong and live on your feet or be weak and live on your knees by the rules of china.
TDog
April 8, 2014 at 04:04
Sounds mighty lofty and very martial, but let’s be honest: this has nothing to do with ideals and everything to do with economics. China wants the same resources other folks want and is simply willing to do more to secure them. The major question is how long the other claimants will be able to sustain this sort of military spending.
In my opinion, they are doing things in a very shortsighted fashion. Matching China plane for plane and ship for ship is not the smartest thing to do when your economy is nowhere near the size of China’s. Even ASEAN’s combined GDP of $3.5 trillion is dwarfed by China’s economy that weighs in at almost $15 trillion.
The answer to ASEAN’s problems unfortunately lie in the past. Beijing’s past offers for bilateral negotiations should have been taken, but the various ASEAN nations hemmed and hawed and hoped that the US would back them up or that the problem would go away.
The lesson here, boys and girls? Not that it’s better to be strong and live on your feet than be weak and live on your knees – that’s dramatic martial fan fiction prose.
No, the lesson is problems don’t resolve themselves and the longer you ignore them, the bigger they become. China offered up bilateral negotiations on the issues, got ignored, and so are now serving up some unilateral actions as an alternative.
Louis
April 8, 2014 at 09:12
TDog, I am glad I found you here. We all have a question for you but you seem to avoid. Please answer this question now – in what military unit you have served in? Some Chinese here told us they were in South Vietnamese army; some were Iraq veteran; some said paratrooper of the elite 82nd airborne. We are glad to know that.
Observer
April 8, 2014 at 09:31
Typical of chinese reply. Only chinese posters have the audacity to claim that to take on china with tank per tank, plane per plane, ship per ship. Really? Can anyone be that naive? No need to do that. Just have to do hit and run like the Talibans are doing with the US and with the Soviet years ago. Just like how little Vietnam was able to smash and destroy chinese invaders in 1979 and many times before that. Learn some history lessons, tdog comrade.
One more thing, when will china and chinese dare to serve up some unilateral actions toward Russia and get back all those land (since 1850s) plus all the killing of chinese sailors recently? What is the matter? Funny how china and chinese are deadly silent about that.
TDog
April 8, 2014 at 09:57
Louis,
I served in the super secret Black Ghost Recon Commando Stealth Green Seal Air Service Commandos… I may have left something out, but you know how it is with spec ops recon black file ghost stuff…
Okay, in case you haven’t quite figured it out, I’m not a military veteran. I certainly support our men and women in uniform, but I don’t really see how that has any relevance in a discussion about foreign affairs.
And by the way, I wasn’t dodging that question. I’m just simply not so narcissistic that I check to see if my every post has garnered a response or not. A lot of times I just simply miss these oh-so important items.
That’s called me ignoring the rabble, not them having the last word. :D
TDog
April 8, 2014 at 10:05
Observer,
Playing hit-and-run in a mountainous nation with infantry against a road-bound or helicopter-borne military is significantly different from trying to play the same game on the open ocean.
Terrain you can hide in on land: A lot.
Terrain you can hide in on the ocean: not as much.
Indonesia’s (and indeed any of ASEAN’s member states) best bet is to invest in area denial. Russia would be more than happy to sell them anti-air and anti-ship missiles.
But investing in planes and ships? Well, I can certainly think of a few other ways they can waste money, but that’s just me.
Louis
April 8, 2014 at 11:47
@TDog,
Are you sure, you weren’t a PLA soldier served during Sino-Vietnam border war? My 5th sense told me you could be one of those, based on the military knowledge you were telling readers here. I still wonder how you ended up being American, can you tell?
Observer
April 8, 2014 at 13:21
Anyone with a brain would know that you can hide then hit and run on the ocean with submarines (Vietnam received a few from Russia and more are on the way), small and fast attack boats with swam tactic, different types of missiles on those fast boats and much much more.
Read a few history and military books, comrade, you may open your eyes and learn something new beside what the ccp told you to say.
Edgar
April 8, 2014 at 16:18
TDog – We Filipinos are not that stupid that we will just let Chinese Gov’t. to continuously bully us. Philippines already exhausted all the friendly, diplomatic ways in resolving this issue, for the sake of “Bilateral Negotiations” that China wants. But, unfortunately China keeps on grabbing our territory. We Filipinos and the International Community cannot just believe in China’s False, Illegal, Irrelevant and unclear arguments in terms of history, law, reality and morality when it comes to West Philippine Sea Issue.
John
April 8, 2014 at 04:27
ASEAN united and has one common voice is much stronger force than individual members. China has been applied “Sun Tzu” divide and conquer to ASEAN members. China does not has any good intentions to its neighbors both the far and the near ones. Its just a matter of time the far ones will share the same fate as the near ones. Just look at how aggressively chinese behaviors and demands from Malaysia in the MH370 incident and aggressively demanded Thailand to hand over the Ughurs political prisoners.
applesauce
April 8, 2014 at 06:11
Asean was not and is not united as you say, people often forget that they have the same SCS disputes among themselves(among other disputes) and have yet to be able to come to an agreement between themselves let alone one with china. furthermore some dont have disputes with china at all, why should those that have no disputes with china intentionally go pick a fight? and there lies the problem, the organization is not united and is easily split apart when china puts the slightest of efforts into it, and the situation is unlikely to change, yet china is getting stronger day by day, and some point in the future they might be completely uninterested in bilateral negotiations, then its too late for those Asean countries with regards to these disputes.
TDog
April 8, 2014 at 13:31
Louis,
I would love to tell you.
I was born and bred here. I went to college here and I read a lot of books, news articles, and magazines on the topic of foreign policy, history, and international relations. I find the field fascinating and so I comment on it.
If my comments come off as stridently anti-American or pro-China, it is because I’m not a big fan of Obama’s foreign policy or indeed the foreign policy of anyone for the past two decades. Clinton was needlessly dismissive of Russia, George W. Bush acted without forethought, and Obama has been lacking in any sort of resolve.
If anything, I criticize US foreign policy because I believe the two competing philosophies in Washington right now: “do nothing” and “invade everyone” are sure fire recipes for disaster and the subsequent diminishing of American power both at home and abroad.
And I don’t know where you hail from or call home right now, but as an American living in America I would prefer the nation’s policies maintain me in the lifestyle to which I have become accustomed… a lifestyle I feel could be threatened by a weakening of the US economy which I further feel is the inevitable result of poor foreign policy.
I’m not necessarily pro-China, but I just come off that way because I don’t toe the party line and bleat repeatedly “four legs good, two legs bad” or, in this case, “USA good, China bad!”
My views are more nuanced than that.
MYK
April 8, 2014 at 15:47
“as an American living in America”
Your Chinglish is showing Tdog!
Most Americans use the description, “as an American citizen” to describe their status.
“Really!? “as an American living in America”, I mean who born and raised in the US says that?
Next you’ll be singing James Brown’s ‘Living in America………….eye to eye!” :)
Nga Nguyen
April 8, 2014 at 22:33
Tdog, your view fits quite well with mainstream realist school of thought, Mearsheimer, etc. Ignore ad hominem attacks from these nationalist maniacs. They show more fear of American abandonment and Chinese absorption than any rational thinking worth discussing.
To your point: On the other hand, regional weaklings these countries might be, their blood would come in handy to spill, with American bought weapons, should the US choose to enhance its security through confrontation with China.

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