THE PAG-ASA CHIEF MUST BE FIRED AND BE HELD CRIMINALLY AND ADMINISTRATIVELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THOUSANDS OF TYPHOON YOLANDA DEATHS DUE TO THE FAILURE OF PAG-ASA TO GIVE CORRECT WARNINGS TO THE PUBLIC
PAG-ASA failed to give correct warning on the SURGE which caused the flooding of Tacloban City and various coastal towns in Leyte and Samar.
The World Bank’s Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) Climate Change Course has provided me adequate technical information on the new physics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, like HAIYAN or YOLANDA (the Philippine name of the typhoon) which struck our Visayas region on November 8, 2013 killing more than 6,000 and destroying billions of pesos worth of infrastructure and properties along its deadly swath.
The day before the typhoon hit the Philippines, dire warnings came out in the news
The danger was clearly explained by tropical weather expert Brian McNoldy at the Capital Weather Gang, the Washington Post's weather blog. Live Science summarized McNoldy’s technical explanation of why they project a super typhoon. Please note the article from Live Science:
How Typhoon Haiyan Became Year's Most Intense Storm
By Douglas Main, Staff Writer | November 07, 2013
THE article had a very clear warning on the SURGE that should have been frightening enough had it been treated like a Tsunami warning, but it was overshadowed by the headlines on the forecast of record 300-kph winds:
“Haiyan is likely to push a large storm surge inland — at least 10 feet (3 meters) — along the eastern coast of the islands of Luzon and Samar, according to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog.”
PAG-ASA was aware of the impending SURGE but did not correctly warn the public. PAG-ASA mentioned the SURGE in their Extreme Weather Report but only as a virtual footnote when the SURGE should have at the very top of their public warning.
Here’s their weather bulletin on the eve of the typhoon:
Below is a photo of the Severe Weather Bulletin Four-A of the Philippine Weather Bureau better by its acronym PAGASA issued at 8PM November 7, 2013 on the eve of the typhoon’s landfall.
"At the bottom of the forecast, line 57 – in a footnote-like text – is a warning against possible 7-meter high storm surges in areas declared under signals 4, 3, and 2.”
Note the very minimal, "by the way" style, virtual footnote mention of the SURGE around 57 lines from the top of the bulletin, when it should have been included among the top weather forecast items to emphasize the danger.
This Washington Post article explained in scientific terms how the typhoon built up to become a super typhoon packing 300 kph winds:
“Haiyan got so strong because ‘it has everything working for it,’ McNoldy said. First, it formed in the open ocean, and thus no land mass prevented it from forming a symmetrical circular pattern, which helps a cyclone form and gather steam, he said.
“Second, ocean temperatures are incredibly warm, topping out at 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). Just as important, the warm water also extends deep into the ocean, meaning that upwelling caused by the winds will not churn up cold water, which dampens cyclone power, McNoldy said. Tropical cyclones are basically giant heat engines, powered by the transfer of heat from the ocean to the upper atmosphere.
“Third, there is very little wind shear in the area at this time, McNoldy said. Wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction with increasing altitude, tears developing hurricanes apart, and prevents them from strengthening. Wind shear caused by westerly winds is the main reason why the Atlantic hurricane season featured few strong storms, and got off to a late start, weather experts say.”
The people and local authorities prepared for the strong winds, the way they had done for decades, even centuries. The government issued a warning about the SURGE, but it got submerged under the warning on the extreme strong winds. The SURGE was the more destructive killer, sweeping and destroying homes and killing people who could have evacuated to higher grounds had a clear Tsunami like warning on the SURGE been issued. People braced for the winds, but not the SURGE.
The SURGE was never fully explained in the government warnings. People in the coastal areas of Samar and Leyte were caught flatfooted, including local officials, the police and the military, whose homes and offices were wiped out. With clearer warnings on what the SURGE meant, they could have evacuated to higher ground and thousands of lives could have been saved.
Following the thrust and tenor of the government’s weather bulletin, Philippine Star, one of the country’s biggest newspapers, also minimally mentioned the surge among the last items in its headline news on the “Monster typhoon” the day before the storm.
Monster typhoon grows stronger; 10 areas in Visayas under signal no. 4
By Louis Bacani (philstar.com) | Updated November 7, 2013
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/11/07/1254270/monster-typhoon-grows-stronger-10-areas-visayas-under-signal-no.-4
"MANILA, Philippines - Public storm warning signal number 4 has been raised over more areas in Visayas on Thursday evening after Super Typhoon "Yolanda" slightly accelerated and intensified, state weather bureau PAGASA said.
"In a severe weather bulletin issued at 8 p.m., PAGASA said Yolanda was last spotted at 453 kilometers southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar with maximum sustained winds of 225 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 260 kph.
And then around 67 lines after the first line of this news is a “by the way, hard to notice mention of the surge:
“Those living in coastal areas under signal nos. 4, 3 and 2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to a seven-meter wave height."
The lack of advance alarm and awareness on the SURGE was evident from local Philippine TV news quoting the Mayor of the devastated City of Tacloban:
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/338942/news/nation/tacloban-mayor-it-was-hard-to-explain-storm-surge-to-public-before-yolanda-s-landfall :
“Tacloban City Mayor Alfred Romualdez on Monday admitted that his government found it difficult to explain what a storm surge was to his constituents before Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) ravaged through their area last month. "There was a difficulty in explaining to the public what a storm surge is. We were aware of the height, but not the strength," Romualdez said.
And the PAGASA, the Philippine Weather Bureau, admitted this lapse as indicated by this Rappler news story six days after the typhoon struck.
http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/typhoon-yolanda/43735-yolandaph-haiyan-preparedness-philippines
'Storm surge' not explained enough – PAGASA official
BY BUENA BERNAL
POSTED ON 11/14/2013 7:22 PM
MANILA, Philippines – As far as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is concerned, all necessary public warnings were issued before Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) unleashed its wrath Friday, November 8.
Ma. Cecilia Monteverde, assistant weather services chief of PAGASA, however, admitted that more could have been done in explaining to the public the magnitude and gravity of a storm surge.
"We weren't able to tackle that. It's more on the signals and in delivering the forecasts and warning distributed to the public. But the storm surge wasn’t explained there," Monteverde, speaking in Filipino, told Rappler.
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