“What will it mean for South China Sea stability if additional military airstrips are built? My forecast: nothing good,” Erickson said.
China has active expansion programs on Gaven Reef and Cuarteron Reef, and the placement of a port and airstrip on Fiery Cross or any of the others would “be used to counter a US presence in the Philippines,” said Carl Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy.The US military must now face the very real possibility that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will use these islands to implement a new air defense identification zone similar to the one created in the East China Sea last November.…The fear is that all the other claimants, including Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, will begin building fortifications on reefs, islets and rocks, said Andrew Erickson, a China naval specialist at the US Naval War College.“Will we increasingly witness an arms race of augmentation as rival claimants fortify features under their respective control with structures, ships, and sand?” he asked.Erickson questions what this will mean for the otherwise potentially moderating influence of existing norms and international agreements such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea if islets, reefs and rocks are substantially enhanced.“What will it mean for South China Sea stability if additional military airstrips are built? My forecast: nothing good,” Erickson said.
The stability of the region is continuing to head south with no end in sight. Eventually, Beijing’s fortifications will be used to control the movement of maritime vessels in the South China Sea. That means the end of freedom of the seas in that region. That will obviously apply to US military and intelligence vessels.
The only real solution is to bomb the fortifications under construction. That of course will effectively start World War III. But the restriction of US military and intelligence vessels in that region will be intolerable to the US in the future. And that is where we are headed. If bombing the fortifications will almost certainly bring on World War III, then the region is already at a tipping point. If a small event leads to a huge event, then we have already arrived at tipping point territory. That’s pretty much the definition of a tipping point.
For you, dear reader, what this means is that you had better be preparing for nuclear war. My preferred plan is getting out of the US once we see an event that qualifies as a catalyst. I have not seen such an event – yet but it’s coming.
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