Here are some thoughts about China's rise based on my notes from the Course I took online entitled Global Trends for Business $ Society, University of Pennsylvania (Wharton):
China as a Global Power
China as a Global Power?
- Largest population until 2030
- Second largest economy - can become no. 1 by 2020
- Leading trading partner
- Largest current account surplus
- Largest foreign reserves
- Increasingly important source of foreign direct investment
China’s limitations:
- Growth of cities - food and water
- Population aging - one child policy; population not replacing itself
- Gender imbalance, also due to one child policy; shortage of women, 8-12 million
- Environmental degradation - desertification, degradation of air
- Loss of cost competitiveness - wages going up due to economic successes
- Fragile banking system - fragile and not up to standard when it comes to risk management
- Transition to a consumer economy - China has been growing primarily by exporting. It must transition form high investing, high exporting to a consumer-driven economy
- Issue of currency convertibility
- Rampant corruption’
- Income inequality on the rise
- Political legitimacy of the government and the communist party
- Internal ethnic strife in the western provinces and in Tibet
- Conflicts with neighboring countries
China is surrounded by a large number of countries. China has border disputes or other kinds of territorial disputes with most of its neighbors
- India
- South and East China Sea, disputes with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam
- Issue of Taiwan
Be aware of China’s geostrategic location on the map
- China lacks direct and open access to the oceans
- There is a first island chain then a second island chain that make it difficult for China to have unimpeded success to the open ocean
- The US has deployed a number of bases in the area
- Diego Garica
- Guam
- Japan
- South Korea
- Singapore
- Australia
- China does not enjoy the geostrategic advantages that Russia and the US possess
US vs. China
- The US is still head and shoulders above China in terms of financial, military and cultural power and influence
- However the US is not hegemonic
- No topic of global significance can be discussed without the US and China sitting at the table:
- Global trade
- Global financial architecture
- Climate change
- Exception: localized conflicts (US VS. RUSSIA)
Pax Sinica?
Key books:
- Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World (2009)
- Arvind Subramanian, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance (2011)
- Arvind Panagariya, India:The Emrging Giant 2011
Remember Japan?
- Vogel, Japan as Number One,. 1979
- Ouchi, Theory Z 1981
- Imai, Kaizen: The Key to Japan’s Competitive Success 1986
- Crichton, Rising sun 1992
The skeptics
- Joseph Nye, Soft Power (2004) and The Future of Power (2011): US still on top, but cannot accomplish everything by itself
- Jared Diamond, Collapse: How societies choose to fail or succeed (2005): China face numerous challenges
- Aaron Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy (2011): US can benefit from China’s Rise
- John Ikenberry, “The future of the Liberal World Order.” Foreign Affairs (May-June 2011): China does not want to undermine the global liberal economic order, but to become more influential within it
Chinese Views on China’s Global Ascendancy
- China’s rise will be peaceful and focused on development and cooperation :
- Justin Yifu Lin, Demistifying the Chinese Economy (2011)
- Hu Angang, China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower (2011)
- Wang Jisi, “China’s search for a Grand Strategy” Foreign Affairs )March -Apri; 2011)
- Zhu Feng: “China’s Rise will be Peaceful (20080
More militant:
- Shen Dingli, “Sino-American Relations: Mutual Accommodation. “International Studies (2009)
Henry Kissinger, On China, 2011
“The question ultimately comes down to what the United States and China can realistically ask of each other. An explicit American project to organize Asia on the basis of containing China… is unlikely to succeed - in part because China is an indispensable trading partner for most of its neighbors. By the same token, A Chinese attempt to exclude America from Asian economic and security affairs will similarly meet serious resistance from almost all other Asian States.”’
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