2015 was a fruitful year for Japanese security policy; the coming year will be an absolutely critical one for the region.
The Guidelines for the Japan-US Defense Cooperation were significantly revised in April, the Ministry of Defense organization was streamlined in June with the new Acquisition Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) becoming operational on Oct. 1 and — most importantly — new regulations for security policy were passed by the Diet in September.
It is important to note that Japan over the decades has regularly reinterpreted its Constitution to match its changing security environment. The guidelines were first adopted in 1978 to draft joint Japan-US operational plans for the first time after the nations concluded their bilateral security treaty in 1952. They were revised in 1997 to meet the new security environment after the end of the Cold War together with the emerging threat of a nuclear North Korea.
The new guidelines make alliance management smoother by introducing the new bilateral consultation mechanism to meet the evolving security situation in the Far East. For the first time, they include cooperation in joint research, development, production, and testing and evaluation of equipment; and in mutual provision of components of common equipment and services.
Since April 2014 Japan can have codevelopment of weapon systems with allies, like highly capable conventional submarines with Australia.
The “Legislation for Peace and Security” enabled the Abe administration to modestly expand the concept of “collective self-defense” to enlarge Japan’s role and options in the region through its alliance with the US. The goal is to improve Far East stability and security.
The New National Defense Program Guidelines, scheduled to be revised in 2018, will present a new concept for the defense of Japan.
Unfortunately, the security environment in East Asia is not peaceful. An issue causing great security anxiety is North Korea’s development of nuclear and missile capabilities. Although this has not escalated to cause an urgent crisis, it is of growing concern.
China’s land-reclamation activities in the South China Sea are another difficult issue that most likely will stay unsolved in 2016. How China will respond — other than with strong words — to the USS Lassen’s recent freedom of navigation operation near one of these “islands” is not clear yet.
Closer to home, we have concerns with Chinese challenges regarding the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
China is very anxious about taking any action that would or might lead to a serious deterioration of relations with the US. Despite tough talk, Beijing has tended to avoid direct conflict and preferred to respond indirectly. How, exactly, remains unclear, but it is worth looking at its island-building as a guide. After China declared a large air defense identification zone over the East China Sea in 2013, Washington sent a B-52 bomber through the “blind” part of the zone. Learning lessons from that case, China is building islands in the South China Sea on which to put radars and air defense missiles, an initiative that might be for a future ADIZ announcement in the South China Sea.
It is important that Tokyo, Washington and our allies coordinate and adjust day-to-day, as what China will do next is beyond our imagination. China is continually testing boundaries. In this escalating game, we must be vigilant.
An equally major concern is the slowdown of the global economy that will have serious implications for China and might still shake the global economy. The US Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates in the near future and this will have some impact on China. The 1997 Asian fiscal crisis teaches an important lesson on how closely the economy and security are related.
To end on a positive note, I hope that 2016 will see the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement become a reality, and a demonstration of American and Japanese leadership and cooperation.
Nishi is Japan’s former vice minister of defense.
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