Former Paranaque Congressman Roilo Golez, shown here in photo beside world renowned former Japan Prime Minister Yasuhiro NAKASONE, was one of the the speakers in the just concluded High Level Conference on Maritime Security in East Asia held in Tokyo. Golez presented a technical paper.
And here's a part of the Golez paper on the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea:
"I note three developments that are of great concern to the Philippines and could have a grave impact on the region:
1. US FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION PATROLS: The first one is the announced second Freedom of Navigation patrol to be conducted by the United Sates Navy. Personally, I welcome this as necessary in checking the aggressiveness of China but the region must brace itself for the response of China to that second and succeeding patrols. What forces will the US deploy the next time? How would China respond?
2. ARBITRAL TRIBUNAL CASE AGAINST CHINA: The Philippines has a good chance of winning its case in the Permanent Court of Arbitration and that the tribunal would repudiate the 9-dash line. China has repeatedly announced that it will not honor the ruling of the arbitral tribunal. Will it really ignore the ruling? How would the international community respond to the ruling? How would the other powers in the region react to a ruling favorable to the Philippines? Will they help by whatever means in compelling China to honor the ruling? Should China ignore the arbitral tribunal, would it mean more freedom of navigation patrols and this time not only by the US Navy but by the other powers in the region?
3. MILITARIZATION OF CHINA’S ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS: China does not appear to be slowing down in their construction activities on the artificial islands, especially those with the air strips namely Subi Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef. What is the most likely response of the US and other powers like Japan if and when China starts militarizing the artificial islands with the deployment of fighter jets, even bombers and medium range missiles? What if China declares an ADIZ in the South China Sea? Would that be treated as a Clear and Present Danger to the region?
The Philippines, by reason of geography, is the closest to the potential point of conflict. The Philippines has suffered the most so far from China’s aggressiveness with two major features (Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal) seized by China and would like this redressed as soon as possible. It is our hope that the situation be corrected in a peaceful manner and that China respects the Rule of Law and the international community will be there to pressure and compel China accordingly for the sake of the global commons.
Should the world not do anything to stop China’s reclamation activities, the world will have to deal with a clear and present danger posed by at least three militarized structures with the following capabilities (artwork from the study of the Japan Ministry of Defense dated Kine 12, 2015 entitled “East and South China Sea Situation.”
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Attachment, this article analyzing court case:
"China Likely to Lose International Court Case in South China Sea Dispute, Legal Experts Say
Added by Javier Simon on December 2, 2015.
Saved under Current Events
Tags: Chinese culture, Chinese news, chinese politics, current events, philippines, south china sea, The Hague
"China may finally be feeling the pressure over its territorial claims in the South China Sea, which now are being analyzed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.
When the court took jurisdiction over the case filed by the Philippines, which has its own territorial claims in the region, China brushed it off as a “futile” attack on its sovereignty which would “lead to nothing.”
"Legal experts now say Manila has a good chance of success based on the court’s rejection of China’s arguments during the hearing on jurisdiction. Such a scenario would mark the first time an international court has intervened in the matter – something Beijing has been trying to avoid for years.
"International energy lawyers and officials from other countries in the region are keeping their eyes on the case. Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim parts of the South China Sea, which serves as a waterway through which $5 trillion worth of ship-borne trade passes through each year.
“Other countries will use it as a stick to beat Beijing with,” said Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore’s Institute of South East Asian Studies, in an interview with Reuters. “That’s why China is so freaked by this whole issue.”
"Manilla filed the case in hopes of earning a court’s ruling on its right to exploit waters in its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone as allowed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
"This treaty defines territorial and economic zones based on factors such as islands, rocks and reefs.
"China, which claims most of the South China Sea, has been expanding its efforts in building artificial islands in the region. Even though it ratified UNCLOS, Beijing dismisses the court’s authority and claims it will deny any ruling- a claim reiterated by China’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday.
"Such a response is likely as no entity would enforce a legally-binding ruling in support of the Philippines. Still, China would face pressure on the world stage, especially at regional meetings."
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