Which presents the greatest concern – North Korea’s escalating threats of nuclear destruction or China’s steady build-up in the South China Sea?

North Korea appears to have gone beyond the realm of bluster in claiming to be able to mount a nuclear warhead on a mid-range Rodong missile capable of reaching any target in South Korea and Japan. U.S. and South Korean analysts believe North Korea may have attained exactly that level of expertise – and that one reason for recent missile tests off the North’s east coast is to test the missiles for accuracy and reliability.

A U.S. Navy’s amphibious assault vehicle with Philippine and U.S. troops on board storms the beach at a combined assault exercise at a beach facing the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Compounding concerns, South Korea’s Defense Minister Han Min-Koo has said North Korea has developed a multiple-launch rocket system capable of raining 300-millimeter projectiles on targets as far as 200 kilometers away – just about anywhere in South Korea and parts of Japan as well. He predicted, moreover, that North Korea might fire the rockets in the near future, possibly this year.

Somehow, though, such fearsome weapons appear unreal, the stuff of fantasy. It’s China’s activities in the South China Sea that are setting off the most alarm bells. The question is how to stop the Chinese without risking an open clash that could spiral into a regional war.

The U.S. commander in the Pacific, Admiral Harry Harris, has reportedly called for intensified air and sea patrols around the Spratly Islands, where China is expanding its air and naval presence, and also the Scarborough Shoal, a rocky outcropping about 125 miles west of the critical Philippine naval base at Subic Bay.

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The fear is the Chinese may envision a base on rocks in the Scarborough Shoal that now protrude only a few feet above water. Construction of an artificial island covering the rocks has already begun amid concerns, as reported in the Navy Times, that China could threaten Manila, the Philippines’ capital and largest port, 140 miles from the shoal.

The Chinese have already shown their engineering expertise by expanding islands that they control in the Spratlys, building an airstrip on one of them for both transport and fighter planes. The U.S. and the Philippines, which holds two of the Spratlys, have complained loudly but have done nothing to stop the Chinese advance. U.S. navy patrols and flights over the islands have outraged the Chinese but otherwise have been ineffective.

Worries about China’s claim to the entire South China Sea have inspired a dramatic reversal in Philippine attitudes toward both the U.S. and Japan. U.S. ships now regularly dock at Subic, the largest U.S. naval base outside the U.S. until the Philippine Senate voted against renewing the lease on the base 25 years ago, and the Philippines has agreed U.S. troops and supplies can remain permanently on five bases – signs of a return to a bygone era.

While U.S. troops are staging war games in South Korea, inspiring rhetorical denunciations from North Korea, U.S. and Philippine forces also opened annual military exercises. About 5,000 American and 3,500 Philippine troops are participating in what’s called Balikatan – meaning shoulder to shoulder – in a show of strength that seems more relevant than ever in view of concerns about China and the weakness of the Philippine armed forces.

Just as significant, the Japanese are asserting themselves in the South China Sea to a degree that was unimaginable a few years ago. A Japanese destroyer, the Ise, carrying helicopters is to call at Subic Bay on the way to military exercises with the Indonesian navy. A Japanese submarine accompanied by two destroyers called at Subic Bay before going on to Vietnam – a show of force aimed at China.

Yorizumi Watanable, a professor at Keio University with a long background as a diplomat, told me the South China Sea is as much a concern to Japan as the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea where China challenges Japanese control. Despite its distance from Japan, the South China Sea is at a vital crossroads in traffic to South and Southeast Asia and the Middle East, the source of most of Japan’s oil.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has succeeded in making it easier for Japan to send forces far beyond Japan’s shores despite article nine of Japan’s post-war constitution banning Japan from deploying troops overseas. Now Japan has the right to “collective self-defense” in support of an ally — the rationale for entering the South China Sea.

Japanese, like Americans, worry tensions are increasing with no way out.

Watanabe predicted the Chinese would declare an “air defense identification zone” in the South China Sea just as they have in the East China Sea. In other words, all aircraft flying over the South China Sea would have to declare identity and flight plan – and could be turned back.

Would Japan challenge the ADIZ in the South China Sea as it has in the East China Sea? And what would Japan, the U.S. and others do in response? Those questions have gone unanswered as all sides assert themselves in a standoff that appears as far from a happy conclusion as the confrontation on the Korean peninsula.

To read more of my commentaries on Asia news, click on www.donaldkirk.com, and the details of my books are available here.