Second Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey: Net trust in China a "bad" -45; 51% of Filipinos closely followed the Philippines-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea

Second Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey:
Net trust in China a "bad" -45; 51% of Filipinos closely followed
the Philippines-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea

Social Weather Stations

The Second Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey, fielded from June 5-8, 2015, found that 62% of adults have little trust, and 17% have much trust, in China, for a record-low net trust rating of -45 (% much trust minus % little trust), classified by SWS as "bad".

China's lowest net trust score of -45 surpassed the previous record-low of -36 in June 2014, May 2012, and June 1995 during the Mischief Reef confrontation between the Philippines and China [Chart 1, Table 1].

The survey also found that 51% of Filipinos paid close attention to news reports on "the events regarding the conflict between the Philippines and China about who owns the islands in the West Philippine Sea".

Net trust was Very Good for United States, Good for Australia

In contrast to China, most adult Filipinos have much trust in the United States and Australia.

United States, in particular, has been enjoying positive net trust ratings since December 1994, ranging from moderate +18 in May 2005 to excellent +82 in December 2013 [Chart 2].

As of June 2015, the United States scored a very good net trust rating of +64.

Similarly, Australia has been scoring positive net trust ratings since April 1995, ranging from neutral +3 in September 1995 to very good +55 in August 2012.

In June 2015, Australia scored a good net trust rating of +36.

The June 2015 survey also found neutral net trust rating for Saudi Arabia, and poor for Malaysia.

Net trust in Saudi Arabia used to be a poor -19 in August 1994 before it rose to neutral -5 in March 2008. It has since then stayed neutral, with the latest score at -9 in June 2015.

Net trust in Malaysia started out at neutral -2 in August 1994 before declining to poor and bad levels from December 1994 to March 20018, ranging from -37 to -16. It rose to neutral -2 in June 2008, and has since then stayed neutral until the latest score of poor -10 in June 2015.

PH-China dispute was fifth most followed news event

Of the 14 news events tested, the Events regarding the conflict between the Philippines and China about who owns the islands in the West Philippine Sea was the fifth most followed news, with 51% who followed it very closely/somewhat closely [Table 2].

The four most followed news events were The boxing fight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. (78%), The case of OFW Mary Jane Veloso in Indonesia (57%), The court trial concerning the Pork Barrel Scam of Janet Lim Napoles (57%), and Events regarding the implementation of the K to 12 program (52%).

Following the top five news events were The court trial concerning the Maguindanao massacre of November 2009 (50%), The Senate investigation regarding the alleged anomaly in the construction of a building in Makati City when Vice-Pres. Jojo Binay was still Mayor of Makati (48%), The court trial concerning the case of former Pres. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (46%), and The earthquake that ravaged Nepal (44%).

Other news events tested were The events of the murder case against US Marine Lance Corporal Joseph Scott Pemberton for killing Filipino transgender woman Jeffrey "Jennifer" Laude (38%), The legislation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (36%), News regarding the preparation for the APEC conference that will be held here in the Philippines (21%), News regarding the conflict in Yemen (19%), and News about the plight of the Rohingyas (7%).

China's net trust ratings also "bad" in Mischief Reef incidents of 1995 and 1999

The net trust rating of China has been positive in only 7 out of 35 surveys from 1994 to 2015, ranging from the neutral +3 in September 2002 to the record-high moderate +17 in June 2010.

On the other hand, China's net trust scores were mostly negative, ranging from neutral -1 to the record-low bad -45.

China's net trust rating ranged from bad to poor during the first Mischief Reef confrontation between the Philippines and China in 1995.

It was bad in April 1995 (-30) and June 1995 (-36) before it went to poor in September 1995 (-26) and December 1995 (-28).

It again fell to bad levels in June 1999 during the second Mischief Reed incident, at net -32, and in December 2008, after the news on melamine contamination of milk from China, at net -33.

It recovered briefly from February 2009 to December 2011, ranging from neutral -2 to moderate +17, before falling to a bad -36 in May 2012. It has since then stayed at poor to bad levels, reaching as low as -45 in June 2015.

Survey Background 

The June 2015 Social Weather Survey was conducted from June 5-8, 2015 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (sampling error margins of 3% for national percentages, and 6% each for Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao).

The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2015 to obtain the national estimates.

The Social Weather Survey items on public trust in selected countries, and public attention to news events, are non-commissioned. These items were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service. 

The exact questions on public trust in selected countries are as follows: "PAG-USAPAN PO NATIN ANG TUNGKOL SA ILANG BANSA. SA MGA SUMUSUNOD, MAAARI PO BANG SABIHIN NINYO KUNG ANG PAGTITIWALA NINYO SA (BANSA) AY NAPAKALAKI, MEDYO MALAKI, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT, MEDYO MALIIT, NAPAKALIIT, O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (BANSA)? PAKISABI ANG SAGOT NINYO SA PAMAMAGITAN NG PAGLAGAY NG MGA KARD SA NAAANGKOP NA LUGAR SA RATING BOARD NA ITO. [Let's now talk about some countries. For the following, please indicate if your trust/faith in (COUNTRY) is VERY MUCH, SOMEWHAT MUCH, UNDECIDED IF MUCH OR LITTLE, SOMEWHAT LITTLE, VERY LITTLE, or YOU HAVE NOT HEARD OR READ ANYTHING ABOUT THE (COUNTRY) ever? You may indicate your answers by placing each card on the appropriate box on this rating board.]" [UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OR USA; AUSTRALIA; CHINA; SAUDI ARABIA; MALAYSIA]

[SWS terminology for Net Trust Ratings: +70 and above, "excellent"; +50 to +69, "very good"; +30 to +49, "good"; +10 to +29, "moderate", +9 to -9, "neutral"; -10 to -29, "poor"; -30 to -49, "bad"; -50 to -69, "very bad"; -70 and below, "execrable"]. A single-digit net satisfaction is considered not significantly different from zero.

On public attention to news, the exact questions are: "NARITO PO ANG ILANG PANGYAYARI NA INIULAT SA MIDYA SA NAKARAANG TATLONG BUWAN. SA BAWAT ISA, PAKISABI LAMANG PO KUNG ANG MGA ULAT DITO AY INYONG SINUNDAN NANG MABUTI, MEDYO SINUNDAN, SINUNDAN NANG KAUNTI LAMANG, HINDI SINUNDAN, O NGAYON LANG KAYO MAY NARINIG TUNGKOL DITO (SHUFFLE CARDS)? [Here are some events reported in the media in the past 3 months. For each one, please say if you followed the reports VERY CLOSELY, SOMEWHAT CLOSELY, JUST A LITTLE, NOT AT ALL, or HAVE YOU JUST HEARD ABOUT THIS NOW? (SHUFFLE CARDS)]"

1. ANG PAGLILITIS SA KORTE TUNGKOL SA MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE NG NOBYEMBRE 2009 (The court trial concerning the Maguindanao massacre of November 2009)
2. ANG IMBESTIGASYON NG SENADO UKOL SA DIUMANO'Y ANOMALYA SA PAGPAPAGAWA NG BUILDING SA MAKATI CITY NOONG MAYOR PA NG MAKATI SI VICE-PRES. JOJO BINAY (The Senate investigation regarding the alleged anomaly in the construction of a building in Makati City when Vice-Pres. Jojo Binay was still Mayor of Makati)
3. ANG PAGLILITIS SA KORTE NG "PORK BARREL SCAM" NI JANET LIM NAPOLES (The court trial concerning the Pork Barrel Scam of Janet Lim Napoles)
4. ANG PAGSASABATAS SA KONGRESO NG "BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW" (The legislation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law)
5. ANG MGA KAGANAPAN TUNGKOL SA HIDWAAN NG PILIPINAS AT CHINA UKOL SA PAGMAMAY-ARI NG MGA ISLA SA WEST PHILIPPINE SEA (Events regarding the conflict between the Philippines and China about who owns the islands in the West Philippine Sea)
6. ANG KAGANAPAN UKOL SA KASONG MURDER LABAN KAY US MARINE LANCE CORPORAL JOSEPH SCOTT PEMBERTON DAHIL SA PAGPATAY NITO SA FILIPINO TRANSGENDER WOMAN NA SI JEFFREY "JENNIFER" LAUDE (The events of the murder case against US Marine Lance Corporal Joseph Scott Pemberton for killing Filipino transgender woman Jeffrey "Jennifer" Laude)
7. ANG LABANAN SA BOKSING NINA MANNY PACQUIAO AT FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR. (The boxing fight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr.)
8. ANG KASO NG OFW NA SI MARY JANE VELOSO SA INDONESIA (The case of OFW Mary Jane Veloso in Indonesia)
9. ANG PAGLILITIS SA KORTE NG KASO NI DATING PANG. GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYO (The court trial concerning the case of former Pres. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo)
10. MGA KAGANAPAN UKOL SA PAGPAPATUPAD NG PROGRAMANG K TO 12 (Events regarding the implementation of the K to 12 program)
11. MGA BALITA UKOL SA PREPARASYON PARA SA APEC CONFERENCE NA GAGANAPIN DITO SA PILIPINAS (News regarding the preparations for the APEC conference that will be held here in the Philippines)
12. MGA BALITA UKOL SA KAGULUHAN SA BANSANG YEMEN (News regarding the conflict in Yemen )
13. MGA BALITA UKOL SA KALAGAYAN NG MGA ROHINGYAS (News about the plight of the Rohingyas)
14. ANG LINDOL NA NANALANTA SA BANSANG NEPAL (The earthquake that ravaged Nepal)

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.

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Chart 1

Table 1

Chart 2

Table 2