Tuesday, June 7, 2016

In Beijing, John Kerry Calls For Peaceful South China Sea Resolution Tim Daiss , CONTRIBUTOR. Forbes

In Beijing, John Kerry Calls For Peaceful South China Sea Resolution

Tim Daiss ,  
 CONTRIBUTOR
Geopolitical analyst and journalist based in Southeast Asia. 
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
On Monday, more Sino-U.S. relations rhetoric hit the news cycle, but much of it is the same that we’ve heard before. At the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry pressed China over its recent actions in the South China Sea, while U.S. Trade Secretary Jack Lew urged China to stop dumping foreign markets with excess steel.
“The United States will make it clear that we are looking for a peaceful resolution to …  the disputes of the South China Sea,” Kerry said in opening remarks. “Let’s not resolve this by unilateral action; let’s resolve this through rule of law, through diplomacy, through negotiation. And we urge all nations to find a diplomatic solution, rooted in international standards and rule of law,” he said.
US Secretary of State John Kerry attends the US – China High Level Consultation on People to People Exchange at the National Museum in Beijing, June 7, 2016. (Photo credit SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Kerry’s remarks come as tensions in the South China Sea continue to escalate amid Beijing’s land reclamation activities and artificial island building on disputed reefs, islets, shoals and structures in the troubled body of water. China, which claims more than 80% of the South China Sea, based in large part on historical ownership, plays its hand cleverly against a national sovereignty narrative that appeals to growing Chinese nationalism.
Vietnam, however, recently discovered maps to cast even more doubt over Beijing’s South China Sea claims. The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam have competing claims in the Sea, which encompasses vital global shipping routes and is believed to have significant oil and gas deposits. More than $5 trillion in trade (including vital oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) passes through the South China Sea each year.
The U.S. for its part, though not a claimant in the South China Sea and arguing that it does not take sides in its disputes, has a long-standing mutual defense treaty with former U.S. Commonwealth the Philippines, which lost effective control over Scarborough Shoal, just 140 nautical miles from Manila and well within its U.N. mandated 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), in 2012 after a two month standoff between a Philippine naval vessel and Chinese maritime vessels.
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Though this wasn’t addressed at the meeting on Monday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash carter did bring it up on Saturday at a security summit in Shanghai: What would the U.S. do if China starts land reclamation activities on Scarborough Shoal?
“I hope that this development doesn’t occur because it will result in actions being taken both by the United States, and actions being taken by others in the region that will have the effect of not only increasing tensions but isolating China,” Carter said when asked about Scarborough Shoal in a forum also attended by senior Chinese military officials.
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Though Carter declined to mention what steps the U.S. would take, in a recent article I proposed that the U.S. help the Philippines and even Vietnam with its own land reclamation activities in the South China Sea to counter China’s obvious goal of controlling most of the body of water. Though this would be off the table for the Obama Administration with just a few months left in office, a new more robust president coming into office might be inclined to consider such a proposal.
Interestingly, in April the Navy Times reported that the U.S. military’s top commander in the Pacific, Adm. Harry Harris, has been arguing behind closed doors for a more confrontational approach to counter and reverse China’s strategic gains in the South China Sea. The report added that his appeals have met resistance from the White House at nearly every turn. Either, Clinton or Trump might actually consider the Admiral’s advice.
Adm. Harry Harris, commander of United States Pacific Command attends during a change-of-command ceremony at the Yonsan U.S. army base on April 30, 2016 in Seoul, South Korea. Brooks will succeed Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, who had led 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. (Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)
Hague ruling coming in weeks
Also, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is expected to rule on the Philippines’ South China Sea case brought against China in the next few weeks.
This is when things will get interesting. China has already stated that it will not abide by a negative ruling issued by The Hague. Of course, in the court of world public opinion Beijing is already losing and a negative ruling against its dubious claims will take even more damage control than Beijing has had to muster so far to justify its aggressive land grabbing actions.
However, Beijing also surely recognizes that the next president, whether it be a President Hillary Clinton or a President Donald J. Trump, will take a harder line over its South China Sea actions.
Also, on Monday Taiwan’s Defense Minister Feng Shih-kuan said that Taiwan would not recognize any air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) set up by Beijing over the South China Sea. Though Beijing hasn’t said that it would declare such a zone, some believe that Beijing may be provoked to do so if The Hague rules in favor of the Philippines. ”We will not recognize any ADIZ by China,” Taiwan Defense Minister Feng Shih-kuan told lawmakers in parliament.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday the U.S. would consider a Chinese air defense zone over the South China Sea “provocative and destabilizing.”
However, provocative or destabilizing behavior hasn’t deterred China so far. In 2013, Beijing declared an ADIZ over the East China Sea. China and Japan have disputed claims in the East China Sea.
Whatever course of action Beijing takes will likely meet with backlash from the U.S., rival South China Sea claimants and most of the international community. Yet, Beijing may also push the envelope as much as it can in the next few months in anticipation of a stronger incoming U.S. president in January.
If Beijing does indeed start land reclamation activities at Scarborough Shoal and does enact an ADIZ over the South China Sea, it will have upped the ante once again in the troubled body of water, and it will be mostly up to the U.S. to call Beijing’s bluff.

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