A Security Scenario for the Philippines Assuming the Country Shifts Alliances and Joins the China Orbit By Roilo Golez Former Philippine National Security Adviser 5 October 2016

A Security Scenario for the Philippines Assuming the Country Shifts Alliances and Joins the China Orbit

By Roilo Golez

Former Philippine National Security Adviser

5 October 2016

"…in the new alignments, should the Philippines shift towards China happen,  the Philippines would be in the China orbit with North Korea, Cambodia  and Laos, with Russia still unclear in the periphery, facing off with the US influenced group comprised of the US treaty allies Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Great Britain (possibly assisted by the Five Power Defense Arrangements military pact that includes Malaysia and Singapore) with India and Vietnam as highly probable allies."

The President has announced the possibility of abandoning our alliance with the United States in favor of an alliance with China, even Russia. I am basing this on published, unconfirmed statements so the security scenario that follows is very hypothetical.

Let us suppose that it happens, that the Philippines enters into a security alliance with China. That means scrapping the Philippines-US alliance as having both US and China as allies would be untenable. The two superpowers are geopolitical adversaries and we cannot be the military allies of both. 

If the security alliance would be similar to the Philippines-US mutual defense treaty, that would obligate both countries, subject to certain conditions, to assist each other militarily in case of an attack.

Scrapping the Philippines-US MDT automatically scraps the EDCA and the five bases designated as EDCA bases.

Would a Philippines-China mutual defense treaty also involve a visiting forces agreement? Very likely. So we should be prepared to host PLA forces (Army, Navy and Air Force, including Marines) on our shores and seas. Would China also request an EDCA set-up where they would deploy on a rotational bases naval, army and air force personnel and equipment in our military bases? It is also very likely that they will make that request and that request would surely be considered. It will be a hot topic for internal debate that may also go to the Supreme Court.

Should there be a formal alliance between China and the Philippines, what would happen to our dispute in the West Philippine Sea? Would this mean we allow China to construct on
Scarborough Shoal and convert it into a military base? That we would not anymore complain about their presence in the West Philippine Sea? 

This scenario would drastically realign the security situation not only in the South China Sea but the entire Indo Pacific area.

It would have a crucial effect on the First Island Chain. 

The First Island Chain is defined as follows (from the Economist): 

"The first island chain has its purpose in Chinese  military doctrine. The People's Republic of China views the first island chain as the area it must secure and disable from American bases, aircraft and aircraft-carrier groups, if in defending itself it must tactically unleash a pre-emptive attack against an enemy. The aim of the doctrine is to seal off the Yellow Sea,  South China Sea  and East China Sea inside an arc running from the Aleutians in the north to Borneo in the south.^[3]  According to reports by American think tanks  CSBA  and RAND, by 2020, China will be well on its way to having the means to achieve its first island chain policy.^"

An alliance with China would put the Philippines inside the First Island Chain, instead of outside in the present security alignment. And China would have easy access to the Western Pacific enabling China to project power more easily towards Guam and beyond, a crucial advantage gained against the US forces especially the Seventh Fleet and those based in Guam and other US forces patrolling in the Western Pacific area. Very likely the PLA Navy would be able to operate from bases in the Eastern Seaboard (Quezon or Northern Luzon) of the Philippines to threaten the US Navy all the way to Guam and even Hawaii.  

The US would surely be alarmed by this emerging scenario. This  would be a grave threat to their security. Would they undertake countermeasures to prevent this or just live with a fait accompli? 

What about Japan? This would also be a big threat to Japan’s security since the PLA Navy and Air Force would be able to break out without difficulty through the Philippines. Unlike now when they have to pass through dangerous gauntlets like Bashi Channel or Miyako Straits.

In the South China Sea, based on existing alignments, we would be the only coastal state aligned with China. 

Vietnam has clearly drifted towards the US as a counterpoint to the China threat. I see no possibility of Vietnam aligning with China being bitter adversaries for centuries.

Malaysia will stay with the Great Britain orbit together with Singapore, Australia and New Zealand. Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and of course Great Britain have very powerful naval and air forces. In fact, the five countries are going to conduct a major exercise this October using the "Five Power Defense Arrangements military pact, which requires members to consult each other and take action if there is an armed attack on Malaysia or Singapore."

Singapore hosts US Naval units especially the modern Littoral Combat Ships that can easily blockade the Malacca Strait.

Great Britain is considered the strongest ally of the US and will be expected to sway the Five Power Defense Arrangements military pact In support of the US. And the US has separate military pacts with Australia and New Zealand.

The US also has military pacts with Japan and South Korea.

Indonesia is also a power to reckon with although technically not a South China Sea coastal state but it has conflicts with China in the Natuna Sea area. I do not expect Indonesia to align with China. In fact, it is holding now a big air force exercise near some of the disputed islands in the South China Sea. "China and Indonesia have ‘over-lapping claims’ to waters near the Natuna island chain and the two countries' fishing boats have been involved in a series of face-offs."

India is also going to be a factor because of its interest in joint development for oil with Vietnam in the South China Sea. India just participated in the annual Malabar exercise, this time with the US and Japan.

Thus in the new alignments, should the Philippines shift towards China happen,  the Philippines would be in the China orbit with North Korea, Cambodia  and Laos, with Russia still unclear in the periphery, facing off with the US influenced group comprised of the US treaty allies Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Great Britain (possibly assisted by the Five Power Defense Arrangements military pact that includes Malaysia and Singapore) with India and Vietnam as highly probable allies.

In case of a major shooting conflict between China and Japan, we could be drawn in as an ally of China under a mutual defense treaty obligation. Should the US enter the picture because of the ‘ironclad" US-Japan alliance, the Philippines could become a target of US attack if we host Chinese forces. Even Japan would very likely target the Philippines.

Our trade would be blocked in the Malacca Strait being a hostile country to the powers controlling the Malacca Strait up to the Indian Ocean.

But of course a shooting war is very unlikely and the power confrontation would mostly likely remain static and high tension where the Philippines, to reiterate, would be in the China orbit with North Korea, Cambodia  and Laos, with Russia’s position still unclear, facing off with the US influenced group comprised of the US treaty allies Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Great Britain (possibly assisted by the Five Power Defense Arrangements military pact) with India and Vietnam as highly probable allies.

I will let the economists do an economic scenario on this since the security realignment will have an impact on economic relationships as well.

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