Super Wicked Problem on Climate Change and Development, Philippine Setting
By Roilo Golez, submitted as a written requirement for CLIMATE MITIGATION Course - UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN, COURSERA
On July 19, 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, to the shock of Climate Change advocates in the Philippines, announced that he was against the ratification of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, per this news report:
“Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has stated he will not abide by the Paris Agreement, an international climate change pact, calling the deal “stupid” and “absurd,” and accusing developed countries of “imposing” on less wealthy states after having committed their own share of environmental atrocities.” http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/07/19/philippines-duterte-says-no-to-stupid-absurd-climate-change-deal/
President Duterte raised a very valid point. The largest producers of carbon emissions are the industrialized countries who have reached a high level of development over the years.
Per Germanwatch @ Statista 2016, the top ten carbon emitting countries account for 67.09 % of world total as shown by the following table. China alone accounts for 28.03%, due to the dramatic level of industrialization that China went through during the past ten years where they achieved a big leap in development emerging as the world’s no. 2 economy.
On the other hand, the Philippines, while experiencing of late a very robust GDP growth rate of around 7% during the past few years, accounts for a very low level of carbon emission. The 2014 level was only 97.91 M metric tons or only 0.3% of world total. Please note the following historical record of Philippine carbon emissions since 1965. Philippine carbon emissions went up by only 5.86% during the period 2013-2014, although the economy grew by around 7%, showing that the country utilized carbon efficient energy sources to support its economic growth.
based on the EDGAR database created by European Commission and Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency released in 2014.
Complying with the Paris Agreement would jeopardize the economic growth goals of the Philippines. But not ratifying the Paris Agreement would subject President Duterte and the country to domestic and international condemnation.
In fact, President Duterte was strongly criticized for his stand by Philippine environmentalists and climate change advocates. the strongest criticism came from former Philippine President Fidel Ramos who was one of Duterte’s strongest supporters during the recent Presidential campaign.
Ramos was quoted in the October 31, 2016 news article:
“Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) — President Rodrigo Duterte must ratify the Philippines’ accession to a landmark climate change pact to be adopted in November or place Filipinos at risk of the severe effects of global warming, former President Fidel Ramos warned.
“Any further delay will increase Filipinos’ vulnerability to super typhoons that are forecast to come soon,” Ramos said in an impassioned editorial published in the Manila Bulletin on October 29.” http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/10/31/fvr-duterte-climate-change.html
A former Economic Development Minister also wrote this very scathing article in one of the Philippine leading newspapers:
“As for the Paris pact, we didn’t only sign it; we also fought hard for it—only to now declare loudly that we will not honor it. Yes, it is true that our contribution to carbon emissions is tiny, compared to those coming out of the United States, China and Europe. And so, critics ask, why bother to curb our own emissions and, consequently, our ability to grow our economy? But this cannot be a valid argument, for at least two reasons. One, …every little bit counts. Two, being responsible for our energy future need not imply sacrificing growth and development. There’s a win-win possible here, if we only get out of traditional mindsets that paint our energy path to be a simple choice between cheap black (coal) and costly white (clean and renewable energy).”
After much painful consideration, in consultation with various advisers and his cabinet, President Duterte eventually relented and announced his support for the ratification of the Paris Agreement. HIs decision was reported in this November 7, 2016 news report:
“President Rodrigo Duterte changed his mind Monday, saying he will now allow the country's ratification of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Duterte said he made the decision after consulting his Cabinet, who were mostly in favor of the ratification.” http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/07/16/duterte-changes-mind-to-sign-climate-change-pact
But he knows, and I fully agree, that there will be a stiff price for this: The likely slowing down of economic growth during his term as President.
This has indeed been a super wicked policy problem for the Philippine President.
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