In Henry Kissinger's 2011 meditation 'On China' the great statesman observes that China cultivates a different strategic mentality than the West. He used the metaphor of the Western chess player, seeking a decisive engagement, making sacrifices and drawing his opponent into an orchestrated endgame and - ultimately - checkmate.
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In China, Kissinger maintains, the most popular game is called 'wei qi' in which stones are placed on a board in an attempt at encirclement. Such is Kissinger's renown that this has become a bit of a cliché, and it has been noted that China also has its own variation of chess 'xiang qi' that is perhaps not as distinguished, but is very popular nonetheless. More importantly for Kissinger's argument, 'xiang qi' tends to reward aggressiveness and produces shorter, more decisive games.
Is chess merely a metaphor?
The reason this is worth recalling is simply that right now there is a game afoot. A game of move, and counter move whose logic will change decisively on January 20th when President Donald J. Trump takes his place sitting on the other side of the chess table.
The opening moves of this game were made during the campaign, a pawn structure comprised of blunt statements and firm rebuttals. After Trump's victory, the more valuable pieces began to emerge with a phone call to Taiwan and a clear repetition of Trump's campaign position on China trade.
Beijing struck back with a firm restatement of its own position along with a slightly disingenuous defence of free trade, although they also inserted some guarded references to Trump's thoughts as mere President 'Elect' in order to signal a warning, but also communicate patience. The Chinese leadership may not favour democracy, but they do understand the demands it places on its representatives to speak to different constituencies.
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Then came the revelation that China has, in fact, installed 'significant' defensive weapons on its South China Sea artificial islands, followed closely by the seizure of the underwater survey drone, accompanied by a few dismissive remarks about China no longer putting up with U.S. surveillance. The U.S. was unusually silent until Trump tweeted that China should keep the drone, a comment that prompted derision from China watchers. But there was a logic to it. What Trump was really saying was not that China should or should not have seized the drone, but that the U.S. should do nothing to retrieve it. No apology, no handshake, just call it theft and see what China does.
Sure enough, five days later, the Chinese duly handed it back with friendly overtures about 'appropriate channels'. A few observers noticed that while the Chinese took the drone from an unarmed survey vessel, they handed it back to USS Mustin, an Aegis class guided missile destroyer. Nor did anyone mention that the previous day Mustin had been in Cam Ranh bay in Vietnam, and must have steamed directly across the disputed waters to reach the appointed rendezvous. There is no way this went unnoticed in Beijing.
Now, just days later, Trump has named Peter Navarro as head of a new National Trade Council. Much has already been said about Peter Navarro (here and here) but it has been clear for some time that he would feature somewhere in Trump's team, so closely does he reflect, possibly even inspire, Trump's China discourse. Beyond what has been said, however, the title graphic for the documentary of his now famous book 'Death by China' was a picture of a knife, hilted by a 100 Yuan note, plunging into the heart of America. If that picture speaks a thousand words, many of them will be in CAPS.
Peter Navarro, senior economic advisor to 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump, on, Sept. 26, 2016. He has since been appointed to head up President Elect Donald Trump's new National Trade Council. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
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