ROILO GOLEZ, Philippine National Security Adviser (2001-2004). The world and the Philippines as Roilo Golez sees it. With focus on national security, geopolitics, geo-security, economics, science and government.
Saturday, February 18, 2017
Duterte's Philippines Is Getting More Corrupt. Forbes
I cover global markets, business and investment strategy
Photographer: Bryan van der Beek/Bloomberg
President Rodrigo Duterte’s death squads didn’t kill corruption in the Philippines last year. But they killed freedom and democracy, and will kill the country’s economic growth and equity market.
The Philippines dropped six notches in the 2016 Corruption Index country ranking published recently by Transparency International.
That has been raising concerns about death squads and the future of the country’s democratic institutions. “President Duterte’s dramatic rise to power in the Philippines made extensive use of anti-corruption rhetoric,” states Transparency International. “Yet, the impact of death squads, attacks on media and violent intimidation to the detriment of democracy and democratic institutions is yet to be seen in 2017.”
Corruption Index in 2010
Corruption Index 2015
Corruption Index in 2016
Source: Transparency International
Fighting corruption is a big bet for Philippines and for foreign investors buying Philippine stocks. Why? Because winning it would mean the Philippines has won the war against corruption and pushed forward and become a developed country.
On the other hand, losing the bet would mean the Philippines has lost the corruption war, and slid back to frontier status; and that seems to be the case with the Philippines, as the country’s corruption ranking continues to slide in recent years.
While President Duterte has been ineffective in fighting corruption, his flip-flops over the South China Sea disputes have been taking their toll on the Philippines‘ stocks, which are down 13.34 percent in the last six months—see table. Apparently, investors are concerned about the political and economic future of that nation, and the prospects for on-going economic integration of the region and the global economy — most notably China, which needs a market frontier for its manufacturing products.
That’s why the Philippines market sell-off has touched other markets in the region, like Vietnam, which has lost 8.86 percent over the same period.