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China’s Maritime Expansion: Exploiting Regional Weakness?
By Nah Liang Tuang
March 05, 2014
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On January 20, 2014, a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) flotilla of two destroyers, one amphibious landing craft and, quite possibly, a submarine escort, left the Chinese naval base on Hainan island for a three-week voyage that entailed patrolling the Paracel Islands (claimed by Vietnam), holding a shipboard ceremony off the Malaysian-claimed James Shoal in the South China Sea on January 26, reaffirming Beijing’s ownership of a reef about 50 miles off the Malaysian coast, and proceeding to the Western Pacific Ocean for live fire drills on February 3, before returning to China on February 11.
The significance of this voyage lies in the extent to which Beijing has deployed the Chinese navy in the region, thus indicating blue water operational capabilities while signaling to littoral states like Vietnam and Malaysia that China has both the maritime muscle and political will to enforce ownership of the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands, even though these states are much closer to the Spratlys than China is.
Exploiting Temporary Vietnamese and Malaysian Vulnerability?
In response to the PLAN’s force projection into waters claimed by Vietnam and Malaysia, Hanoi’s silence andKuala Lumpur’s resignation imply tacit acceptance of the creeping territorial incrementalism supportingBeijing’s “nine-dash line” claim to most of the South China Sea. Indeed, Hishammuddin Hussein, the Malaysian Defense minister, remarked regarding the recent Chinese foray into waters off James Shoal that, “We have to be realistic about our abilities, when faced with a big power like this.”
However, is the effective balance of naval power so skewed in Beijing’s favor that regional Spratly claimants like Vietnam and Malaysia are justified in adopting defeatist attitudes? Further analysis of planned enhancements to littoral state naval capabilities suggest that there is more than meets the eye.
With regard to Vietnam, it currently has 26 modern or relatively modern navy vessels (ships and submarines designed and built from the 1970s onwards) that possess sufficient range to patrol its UN mandated 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and protect Vietnamese held parts of the Spratly islands. Factoring in deployment cycles equally divided between repairs at port, sea trials and actual operational patrols, it can be reasoned that Vietnam can only place eight or nine naval vessels on patrol at any one time to ward off foreign intrusion. While this is insufficient considering Vietnam’s long coastline, EEZ and maritime claims, it must be noted that the Vietnamese are due to receive another four submarines by 2016 (in addition to the two already in service), two more frigates in the near future (there are two currently in service), six additional corvettes to add to the nine already in service and one more patrol boat currently under construction to reinforce the 13-strong patrol boat fleet. This implies that in a few years, Hanoi will be able to beef up its naval patrol fleet by 13 vessels, to 39 in total, yielding an effective year-round operational maritime deterrent of 13 ships and submarines, boosting Vietnamese naval strength by about 50 percent.
As for Malaysia, it has similar limitations, as it only has 30 modern warships and submarines capable of EEZ and disputed zone patrols. Assuming that the above mentioned repair, sea trial and patrol deployment cycle applies, Kuala Lumpur can presently only maintain a constant patrol force of 10 vessels. As with Vietnam, this is insufficient given the extent of Malaysia’s maritime concerns. However, the Malaysian navy will be reinforced by six littoral combat ships delivered from France, with the first of these due to be operational in 2018. Correspondingly, Kuala Lumpur will, in the near future, be able to strengthen its constant maritime deterrence force with 12 vessels instead of 10, a substantial increase of 20 percent.
Considering the present Vietnamese and Malaysian naval force strength along with planned near future ship and submarine acquisitions, China’s recent regional voyage has in practice exploited a window of vulnerability in Vietnam’s and Malaysia’s maritime national security. Whether or not Beijing is wilfully making the proverbial hay while sun shines is irrelevant. China has anywhere between two and four years before Vietnamese and Malaysian naval capabilities are ramped up and present a workable challenge to Chinese nautical expansionism. During this interim period, it is possible that the PLAN could erect more structures on unoccupied islands in the Spratly’s group, increase their troop presence in the disputed zone and plant more sovereignty markers near submerged Spratly features like reefs and shoals. Accordingly, de facto Chinese hegemony in the Spratly’s would erode Hanoi’s and Kuala Lumpur’s maritime security as Beijing would treat the 200 nautical mile “EEZ” around its claimed islands as its territorial waters, thereby depriving Vietnam and Malaysia of much of their rightful EEZs.
Countering Incrementalism
Before planned naval capability building can be completed, Vietnam and Malaysia need not resign themselves to the PLAN’s regional dominance, allowing China carte blanche. Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur can take effective interim measures to check any adventurism. For instance, the Vietnamese and Malaysian navies could shorten the sea trial periods in their deployment cycles to free up more time for operational patrols, utilize coast guard vessels to supplement EEZ patrols and even invest additional resources in conducting more maritime surveillance or sovereignty-enforcing overflights using current air assets.
Essentially, smaller regional states should not roll over and yield to China. Inasmuch as realism implies that “you do not own when you cannot defend,” the will, backed up with the wherewithal, to defend claimed territory might give Beijing pause while the balance of naval power stabilizes.
Nah Liang Tuang is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
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COMMENTS
19
Observer
March 7, 2014 at 02:28
LOL @ chinese posters with comments like “god father”, “800 kg gorilla” and such about china.
Hey, if china and chinese are so tough and strong, why don’t they dare to take on Russia and take back those 600 thousands square kilometers of land that Russians took from china and chinese since 1858 after they slaughtered chinese like sheeps? Google “treaty of Aigun 1858″ and see for yourself
Dan
March 6, 2014 at 10:42
It is a myth that China has always been invincible vis a vis South East Asian states.
Myanmar defeated four successive Chinese invasions from 1765 to 1769, the most disastrous campaigns ever waged by Chinese against a South East Asian neighbor, during the Qing dynasty. The Burmese general was generous and allowed the defeated army to retreat, only for them to come back again. Myanmar successfully established its borders and sovereignty from these wars with China.
Vietnam also defeated successive invasions by imperialist Chinese, from the Mongols time to the Qing; the latest in 1979.
ASEAN is capable of defending its sovereignty, if China ever wants war.
Observer
March 7, 2014 at 02:33
Correction: Little Vietnam was able to beat chinese invaders way back in 40 AD by the Trung sisters, then Lady Trieu, then the Ly Dynasty. In 938 AD, Vietnam finally smashed those invaders for good.
Cathy Yang
March 6, 2014 at 08:46
The mentioned Chinese voyage and frequent aircraft carrier displays were typical visuals and attempted bullying acts of self-serving Chinese grandiosity. Good for paper clips and oath-swearing practices, but with increasingly reduced impact to those familiar enough with Chinese mentality.
Take Vietnam, for example: their 10 years navy modernization program and deterrence strategy started in 2007 with the milestone placement of 6 Russian Kilo Class submarines, already 2 received and the rest by 2017. Keys to their defensive preparation against Chinese attacks are:
. Massive build up of domestically, produced small to medium speedy anti-surface, anti-sub and mines laying vessels: 50+ meters long, speed of 40-45 mph, light arms and , 8-18 missiles (P-15, Kh-35 Uran…), missiles range 150-200 kilometers… Already deployed are several models of either old purchases or newly constructed: Osa-II (6), Molniya 1241 (12), Tarantu I (8), Turya (8), Shershen (8), Svetyak (4), Petya III (6), BPS-500 (4)… That’s a total of well equipped 56 ships for tactical “hit and run” mobilization. With current capacity of 6 and growing, their aim of 100 availability by 2017, are well underway.
. To complement older fleet, they made some purchases of mid-size (100 meters) destroyers and frigates (Gepard 3.9: 2 received, 2 more by 2017) and 2 Sigma 9814 to be delivered 2016. Plans to procure French and British ships are discussed to reach a 10 ships fleet by 2017.
. Cam Ranh base has been expanded by the Russian into a supply and repair complex, largest submarine station outside of Russia, state-of-the arts training center and housing to accommodate 2,000+ technicians, perhaps indicate more Kilo submarines will be ordered in the future.
. Meanwhile, from shores Vietnam continues to deploy several missile batteries capable of reaching both Hainan and Paracels, including but not limited to units of S-300′s and K-Bastions.
All of this frenzy activities appear to counter the theory of Chineseexploiting its neighbor’s weaknesses but, rather intensifying their resolute engagement with whatever modest means available. In the context of Japanese tit-for-tat in the north, South East Asian counter-measures (Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines), strategic locations of SCS claimants (2,500 kilometers spread for Chinese navy vs. 200 miles from shores) and an opportunistic US navy lurking in the background… The untested Chinese blue navy may show its true but, sad color if and when its neighbor’s governments have enough political courage to unleash their brown navies at these dinosaurs of the sea.
Take Vietnam, for example: their 10 years navy modernization program and deterrence strategy started in 2007 with the milestone placement of 6 Russian Kilo Class submarines, already 2 received and the rest by 2017. Keys to their defensive preparation against Chinese attacks are:
. Massive build up of domestically, produced small to medium speedy anti-surface, anti-sub and mines laying vessels: 50+ meters long, speed of 40-45 mph, light arms and , 8-18 missiles (P-15, Kh-35 Uran…), missiles range 150-200 kilometers… Already deployed are several models of either old purchases or newly constructed: Osa-II (6), Molniya 1241 (12), Tarantu I (8), Turya (8), Shershen (8), Svetyak (4), Petya III (6), BPS-500 (4)… That’s a total of well equipped 56 ships for tactical “hit and run” mobilization. With current capacity of 6 and growing, their aim of 100 availability by 2017, are well underway.
. To complement older fleet, they made some purchases of mid-size (100 meters) destroyers and frigates (Gepard 3.9: 2 received, 2 more by 2017) and 2 Sigma 9814 to be delivered 2016. Plans to procure French and British ships are discussed to reach a 10 ships fleet by 2017.
. Cam Ranh base has been expanded by the Russian into a supply and repair complex, largest submarine station outside of Russia, state-of-the arts training center and housing to accommodate 2,000+ technicians, perhaps indicate more Kilo submarines will be ordered in the future.
. Meanwhile, from shores Vietnam continues to deploy several missile batteries capable of reaching both Hainan and Paracels, including but not limited to units of S-300′s and K-Bastions.
All of this frenzy activities appear to counter the theory of Chineseexploiting its neighbor’s weaknesses but, rather intensifying their resolute engagement with whatever modest means available. In the context of Japanese tit-for-tat in the north, South East Asian counter-measures (Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines), strategic locations of SCS claimants (2,500 kilometers spread for Chinese navy vs. 200 miles from shores) and an opportunistic US navy lurking in the background… The untested Chinese blue navy may show its true but, sad color if and when its neighbor’s governments have enough political courage to unleash their brown navies at these dinosaurs of the sea.
Vic
March 6, 2014 at 05:23
It’s capo di tutti capi, boss of all bosses. China is the Godfather of the South China Sea.
Ivan
March 6, 2014 at 05:57
The People’s Republic of China is the naked emperor of Asia, with the CCP as the industrious tailor to the Emperor.
Whichwaydidhegogeorge?
March 6, 2014 at 02:19
Ancient trading relationships? You mean the tributary system where the world bowed to China, the center of the world with a so-called Mandate of Heaven?
Let’s just cut the BS: you can try to justify bullying and salami slicing all you want with made up evidence of SCS ancient dominion that China refuses to share with the world (because the rest of the world will simply tear it apart as the farce it is) but a spade is a spade is a spade.
Wumao shouldn’t act like the naked power grab to grab oceanic territory at another country’s expense is a wise or noble thing, when y’all look just as intransigent and stubborn as the Arabs and Israelis.
Peace will never last if countries and people are going to continue to use past injustices to gain revenge (on descendants that had nothing to do with he original transgressions) and club one another over the head with the “past.”
China wants to pretend that they have a nearly unbroken line of civilization and maturity, when your CCP is still a young political body, compared to past Han dynasties, and acts more like a spoiled brat than a wise philosopher in international relations. [also, you guys dropped the soft power facade waaay too soon; shoulda waited till you have 3 or more carriers and a military that isn't so green]
wow
March 6, 2014 at 01:52
I hope you are not getting paid for writing this.
We are exploiting a temporary weakness? Really? Even if China doesn’t add newer more capable ships, number of ships don’t tell the story, you must look at tonnage.
10 Vietnamese corvettes doesn’t equal one Chinese destroyer. Chinese ships out number combine ASEAN fleet, and the quality is like night and day.
China adds more ship a year than anybody else and at least double what ASEAN adds each year.
Not advocating for war or anything, but do you do any research?
Ivan
March 6, 2014 at 03:39
Moored sea mines with 500lbs of high explosives cost about $1,500 each.
Smart sea mines cost only marginally more for the low end models.
Enjoy your tonnage when you get your neighbors ticked off enough.
They will be such nice artificial reefs that will be great for fishing.
need more research dude
March 6, 2014 at 08:21
China has one of the world’s biggest anti mine ship fleets and one of the best at that. We currently produce the best of these ships, mostly because we place more importance on them.
After Desert storm and Iraq, it’s apparent sea mines are problem for even the US, that’s why one of China’s first goals was to create the best mine sweeping fleet in the world.
It has been achieved and it is expanding.
Side note, as Vietnam once asked China to clear sea mines after Vietnam war, if Vietnam or Philippines place too much sea mines near their shore, they have no capabilities like us, so they would in effect blockade themselves.
Ivan
March 6, 2014 at 00:56
What a foolish idea to even think of only dealing with the PRC ship-for-ship, aircraft-for-aircraft, and to only look at Naval vessels from ASEAN in and of itself, and only combat vessels!
There is a very simple way to level the playing field and neutralize the technical and numerical advantage that the PRC enjoy in the South China Sea with information warfare.
Conduct real time tracking of the location of every PRC naval and air unit including the PLAN PLAF, and units of the Coast Guard and Fisheries Patrol, and the “unofficial” units like the fishing boats.
Provide the information to anyone who wants it so they will know when the PRC units are coming their way.
If the PRC attempt to disrupt the information, there are ways to deal with that.
Information is the low cost, high leverage counter to PRC moves.
tqk0000
March 6, 2014 at 07:54
good post Ivan. Additionally, all the disputed islands are well within the shore missile defense range and with the deploy of submarine fleet, the China’s UAV strength will have limited effects.
Ivan
March 6, 2014 at 08:39
Do we need to go that far yet?
Sure, have the shore based ASMs etc. on standby, nothing like a few search radars illuminating them to remind the PRC units they are out there.
Look what happens when a PRC fisheries patrol vessel start to come near “unlicensed” Philippines fishing boats.
They will just scatter and head for shore.
Cat and mouse game.
Much more mice than cats.
Bankotsu
March 5, 2014 at 22:53
Naval capability is a secondary issue. If you are a country in south east asia and you have hostile relations toward china, you are courting death. And over what? A few rocks in the sea? It makes no sense.
Manila Boy
March 6, 2014 at 00:45
Oh you mean a few rocks that allow you control over gas deposits, fishing rights, sea lanes and such?
Ivan
March 6, 2014 at 05:55
The Philippines have plenty of options to counter the PRC using inexpensive but high leverage counters.
If the Philippines will get off their posterior and talk less and do more for their own defense rather than to cry to daddy (whether US, Japan, EU, Australia, etc.) for help, they could build a stout defense that would create a strong sense of national pride and confidence in their own abilities to stand up to China.
iwishitweretrue
March 5, 2014 at 21:50
It amazes me how these “sponsored writers” are always very quick to scraremonger and talk big and advocate that someone else does the dirty or hard work against China – which of course will destabilize the area and help the US or India. Words are cheap, and these guys words are designed for the intellectually sub normal. Everyone who lives on the region knows that China is the 800 Kg gorilla in the room – and the Malaysian and Vietnamese economies are heavily dependent on China – and China itself is trading peacefully with all these nations – and so there are no real reasons to imperil their economies for the sake of the US. Things take time with China and China is patient and things are not always what they seem – as there are ancient trading patterns and relationships the US knows nothing about. Differences between China and sincere countries over boundaries and borders will be negotiated whilst those that are carrying out the US orders will find themselves squeezed as they lose out when they discover that the US is bankrupt and cannot afford to carry out the promises that the “snake oil salemen” in the Pentagon gave out. Of course these “snake oil salesmen” will themselves have to return to “civvy street” and start doing some real work to earn their living, rather than trying to create wars to prolong their redundant employment by the Pentagon.
Manila Boy
March 6, 2014 at 01:13
Let us be frank and stay with the facts. The US is not destabilizing SEA. Rather it is China that is grabbing territory it does not own.
And while it is-as you put it-”peacefully trading” in SEA, it does so for profit -not for the benefit of its trading partners. It’s a free market exchange -no one owes China anything. Moreover, China can still “peacefully trade” in SEA without grabbing the Spratlys. One need not have anything to do with the other, were China so inclined.
wumaodong
March 6, 2014 at 03:20
You are talking to a wu mao dong member that post on many sites under that name.
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