Vietnam
Of all the South China Sea coastal states, Vietnam is the only country with a record of recent bloody military encounters with China. In 1979, Chinese troops invaded Vietnam “to teach Vietnam a lesson” and met fierce resistance. 20,000 Chinese soldiers were reportedly killed in battles where the combat seasoned Vietnamese Army did not budge. In 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese navy ships had a deadly sea battle in the Spratlys: three Vietnamese ships were sunk and around 70 Vietnamese sailors were killed.
Vietnam is an outspoken critic of China’s claims in the South China Sea. Vietnam’s President Truong Tan Sang was in the news recently when he spoke in a forum organized by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS):
“Vietnam's President Truong Tan Sang accused China of making "groundless" claims of ownership of the vast South China Sea, saying the Philippines has the right to question the claims at the United Nations.
“Speaking during a visit to Washington, Sang said Beijing's nine-dash line, which demarcates Chinese territories in the strategic and resource-rich South China Sea, lacks any legal foundation.
"The position of Vietnam is we always oppose the nine-dash line of China because it's a groundless claim—legally and practically," the Vietnamese leader said in answer to a question at a forum organized by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“Sang then told experts at the CSIS that it would be helpful if they could determine whether China's claims are based on a strong legal foundation.
"We cannot find any legal foundation for the claim or scientific basis for such a claim," he said “
The Philippines and Vietnam have been closely cooperating on their disputes with China as shown by recent ministerial level meetings.
Last August, the foreign ministers of the two counbtries met in Manila and VOA issued this news report:
MANILA — Foreign ministers from the Philippines and Vietnam said they have agreed to work together on a framework for resolving maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Both countries have clashed with China over competing territorial claims.
Maritime security was a top issue in Thursday’s talks between Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Vietnamese Foreign Minister PhamBinh Minh.
Del Rosario told reporters after the meeting that he and Minh agreed to work more closely together to try to convince the rest of ASEAN’s 10 member states to push for substantive progress in a meeting with Chinese officials later this year. “We want to be able to bring it to a negotiations stage. Consultation probably is not enough. We need to talk about negotiation,” he stated.
Also last August 2013, the Vietnamese Defense Minister visited Manila to enhance defense ties. This meeting of defense minsters attracted international attention as shown by this Gulf Times report:
Manila agrees to enhance defence ties with Vietnam
Defence chiefs of the Philippines and Vietnam agreed yesterday to pursue further cooperation as Vietnamesedefence minister General Phung Quang Thanh visited the Philippines.
During their meeting, Philippine Defence Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and the visiting Vietnamese defenceminister “assessed joint activities of the defence and military establishment and explored cooperation initiatives,” said Peter Paul Galvez, spokesman for the Philippine Department of National Defense (DND).
The two ministers also exchanged views on recent security issues of mutual concern particularly on the situation in South China Sea and the US policy of rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific region, said Galvez. “The visit of General Thanh to the Philippines clearly reflects the commitment of both countries to enhance cooperation in jointly developing their defencecapabilities,” Galvez said.
The DND spokesman said defence exchanges between the two countries have been progressing since the signing of a defence cooperation agreement in 2010.
India
India is not a South China Sea coastal state but a potential big player because of its interest in oil exploration with Vietnam and is concerned about freedom of navigation. India, being ranked number 9 military power of the world, has the muscle to control the Indian Ocean, a critical SLOC for China.
Right now, it can defeat China in any naval conflict in the Indian Ocean or can easily execute an Anti-Access/Area Denial strategy in that ocean. Let’s note what India boasts of in naval power:
Two aircraft carriers
Nine Kilo Class Submarines
One Akula class nuclear submarine
Nine Stealth Frigates
And last August, it rocked the military world with this headline:
India to launch its 1st indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant today
Kochi: India will launch its first indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant on Monday. It is the biggestwarship to be built by India and will also mark India's entry into a select club of countries capable of designing and building a carrier of this size.
The launch will take place in Cochin making an entry into a select club of countries capable of designing and building a carrier of this size and capability. India is now only the fifth county worldwide to build a ship of this size besides the US, the UK, Russia and France.
India, Vietnam to strengthen defence ties - A headline form Pakistan Defence News
October 9: India and Vietnam will be on the road to further consolidate their defence ties, with the addition of a fourth pillar, by the time Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong visits the country next month, said diplomatic sources.
Security ties between the two countries have always been close but they began accelerating in the field ofdefence two years ago when the Chinese objected to Vietnam inviting India to prospect for oil in a contested portion of the South China Sea.
Since then New Delhi has overcome its own inhibitions and agreed to partner with Vietnam in areas of submarine and fighter aircraft training and transfer of medium-sized warships.
The two countries have also been making gestures signaling proximity. Indian warships visited NhaTrang port, located near the strategic Cam Ranh Bay.
AUSTRALIA
Australia is down south of the South China Sea but she has very vital interests to protect. Australia is ranked Number 19 military power of the world, small compared to the great powers, but capable of putting up a good fight in the southern periphery of the South China Sea as an interdicting or blocking force.
Australia can deploy 6 Collins class submarines, 8 Anzac class frigates and 4 Adelaide Class frigates.
Last month, September 2013, the new government of Australia announced the following, as carried by China Daily Mail:
Australian navy to protect sea lanes to China, Japan and South Korea
Protecting the massive resources projects in northern and Western Australia and export supply lines to China, Japan and South Korea will be a majorDefence priority for the Abbott government.
New Defence Minister David Johnston said last night that this was one reason the navy needed highly capable long-range submarines to complement its surface warships.
Australia is also part of a recently announced trilateral coalition forged in the sidelines of APEC 2013. The South China Morning Post had this headline and news:
Trilateral statement on maritime disputes seen as targeting China
(From left) Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and US Secretary of State John Kerry at their trilateral meeting ahead of the APEC forum in Bali. Photo: Reuters
A joint statement by the United States, Japan and Australia opposing "coercive unilateral actions" in East China Sea territorial disputes is being seen as aimed squarely at Beijing.
The statement issued after a three-way meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum summit was the fruit of Japan's efforts to rally support in the dispute over the Diaoyu, or Senkaku, islands, analysts said.
US Secretary of State John Kerry, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop met on the sidelines of the Apecsummit in Bali on Friday. Although the statement did not name China, it highlighted the East and South China seas, where Beijing has been engaged in several tense territorial disputes.
The three countries "opposed any coercive unilateral actions that could change the status quo in the East China Sea", the statement said. They stressed "the importance of efforts to reduce tensions and to avoid miscalculations or accidents".
The statement also "affirmed the importance of peace and stability, respect for international law, unimpeded trade and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea".
This triggered an immediate response from China as reported by Reuters:
China Warns US, Japan, Australia Not to Gang Up in Sea Disputes, REUTERS
China said on Monday that the U.S., Australia and Japan should not use their alliance as an excuse to intervene in territorial disputes in the East China Sea or the South China Sea, and urged them to refrain from inflaming regional tensions
“The United States, Japan and Australia are allies but this should not become an excuse to interfere in territorial disputes, otherwise it will only make the problems more complicated and harm the interests of all parties,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswomanHua Chunying said.
“We urge the relevant countries to respect facts, distinguish right from wrong, be cautious, and stop all words and deeds that are not beneficial to the proper handling of the issue and undermine regional stability,” Chunying continued in comments on the ministry website.
RUSSIA
Russia recently reminded the world that it is a Pacific power when the Russian Navy conducted an extensive joint sea exercise with China’s PLA Navy lastSeptember.lSpetmeast
So does that make Russia a steadfast, uncompromising ally of China? Not necessarily. Last year Russia entered into a contract on the delivery of six Kilo class diesel submarines to Vietnam, worth a total of $3.2 billion. It is the largest deal in the history of Russian exports of naval equipment.Obviously, Russia has taken a “larger view on Southeast Asian affairs” with the decision to sell six Kilo class subs to Vietnam. Russia without doubt is aware that the Kilo class submarines are offensive, not defensive, weapons which can wreak havoc on the PLA Navy.
PHILIPPINE EXTERNAL DEFENSE
REALIGNMENT
And now let me present my views on what we should add to the Philippine External Defense Realignment.
I remember during my first terms as a member of the Philippine Congress and even as a member of the Philippine Cabinet as National Security Adviser for three years, deliberations on security concerns were dominated by internal security matters such as the communist insurgency, the Mindanao secessionist movements and terrorism. External defense started to figure prominently only in recent years with the growing assertiveness and show of force of China.
In my opinion, external defense should be made the top priority for the realignment of our national defense strategy.
We are facing an external threat from the world’s second most powerful country whose military might is growing each day. And while China is not our land neighbor, we share the same relatively small body of water, the South China Sea.
Some sound very defeatist about the prospect of a conflict with an emerging super power in view of China’s overwhelming economic and military superiority and ask, how can we resist? What’s the use?
My answer:
First it is our constitutional duty to defend and protect our territorial integrity. We reaffirm this mandate every time we sing our National Anthem: “Sa manlulupig, di ka pasisiil!”
And second, it is not an entirely losing proposition to confront a giant. History and the Bible are replete with stories of smaller forces winning a conflict with or successfully resisting a much bigger force, both in the battlefield and the geopolitical arena.
We are now in the process, more than at any period of our recent history, of beefing up of our external defense capability.
We have two new Navy ships, not much by international standards given the magnitude of the threat, but they constitute a big leap and their presence has made our Philippine Navy more capable than at any time in our recent history. These are the two converted coast guard cutters acquired from the US: the BRP Greogorio del Pilar and the BRP Ramon Alcaraz, with very fitting names after two Filipino heroes who won their place in Philippine history fighting overwhelming military odds.
I propose Asymmetric Warfare as our principal strategy in confronting the bully in the neighborhood.
We should use ANTI-ACCESS/AREA DENIAL methods and strategy.
We cannot match a giant military power frigate for frigate or plane for plane.
But we can easily afford a few hundred cruise missiles to target intruders and prevent access to our Exclusive Economic Zone.
I propose the following:
MISSILE DEFENSE
Landbased Supersonic Cruise Missiles, LIKE theBrahmos, deployed in the fastnesses of Palawan, Mindoro and Luzon.
BrahMos is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or
land. It is a joint venture between Republic of India'sDefence Research and Development Organisation
(DRDO) and Russian Federation's NPO Mashinostroeyeniawho have together formed BrahMos Aerospace Private Limited.
A technical description reads as follows:
“BrahMos has the capability of attacking surface targets by flying as low as 10 metres in altitude. It can gain a speed of Mach 2.8, and has a maximum range of 290 km. The ship-launched and land-based missiles can carry a 200 kg warhead. It has a two-stage propulsion system, with a solid-propellant rocket for initial acceleration and a liquid-fuelled ramjet responsible for sustained supersonic cruise. Air-breathing ramjet propulsion is much more fuel-efficient than rocket propulsion, giving the BrahMos a longer range than a pure rocket-powered missile would achieve. The high speed of the BrahMos likely gives it better target-penetration characteristics than lighter subsonic cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk. Being twice as heavy and almost four times faster than the Tomahawk, the BrahMoshas more than 32 times the on-cruise kinetic energy of a Tomahawk missile, although it carries only 3/5 the payload and a fraction of the range despite weighing twice as much, which suggests that the missile was designed with a different tactical role. Its 2.8 Mach speed means that it cannot be intercepted by some existing missile defencesystem and its precision makes it lethal to water targets.”
With an array of cruise missiles deployed in our West Coast, I don’t think a prudent commander of a foreign DDG or even a flotilla of DDGs would dare go in harms way within our EEZ. Ditto to the foreign troops stationed illegally in an installation, like in Mischief Reef, knowing they could be pulverized in an actual conflict. This missile defense system should be assigned to the Philippine Air Force.
SWARM Navy:
The BRP Del Pilar and BRP Alcaraz are there, and perhaps two or three more modern frigates will be acquired soon to give the Philippine Navy credible capability. However, in a direct confrontation, they are no match against China’s modern DDGs and frigates.
We need to support our frigates with Swarm tactics and strategy in protecting our EEZ and territorial seas. This is cost effective credible defense. Even the world’s most powerful Navy, the US Navy, finds a swarm navy in the Persian Gulf a credible deterrent.
I propose a SWARM of Missile Boats SIMILAR to the
HAYABUSA Class Missile Boats of Japan.
SPEED OF 46 KNOTS WITH FOUR (4) TYPE 90
Ship-to-Ship Missiles or SSM-1B, Range 150-200 km and 1 otobreda 76 mm gun
Complement of 21
ARE FUNDS AVAILABLE? YES!
P130 Billion is immediately available from the Malampaya Fund.
Security is a direct, critical and essential part of energy development whether on land or sea.
To those who say the Malampaya Fund cannot be used for AFP modernization, TAKE A LOOK AT THIS OIL PLATFORM OUT IN THE OPEN SEA. CAN IT SURVIVE FROM INCEPTION TO OPERATION WITHOUT SECURITY?
DEFENSE ALLIANCES
A vital part of any defense strategy is the forging and strengthening of alliances, such as the PHILIPPINES-UNITED STATES ALLIANCE
Part of the terms of the proposed strengthening of the Philippine-US Alliance is making our military bases available for rotational visits by US Navy ships and other military assets. This accommodation must also be given to other friends like Japan, Australia and India.
This is now under negotiation and done transparently. US Defense News reported this in the open:
WASHINGTON — Greater access to Philippine facilities for the US military will be part of the upcoming negotiations between Manila and Washington on establishing a framework agreement that would be “nested” under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), Philippine and US defense officials here said.
Both indicated there would be no changes to the MDT, no permanent US military bases, and, despite media speculation, no basing of US Air Force F-22 fighters or B-2 bombers.
The Philippines is shifting from internal security requirements related to the threat from terrorism to maritime security concerns in the South China Sea, and “our treaty agreement needs [to be] updated,” a US defense source said.
What the “access agreement” will look like has yet to be established. But one thing is certain — it will be rotational, the US defense source said. Rotational is the new framework and the concept is still developmental with each treaty ally in the region, the source said.
Part of this move is the proposed relocation of the country’s navy and air force assets to Subic. But China, through mouthpiece China Daily, immediately objected to a move that simply parallels what the PLA Navy and other forces have been doing in the South China Sea.
Here’s how China Daily reported it:
Manila's plan to relocate its major air force and navy camps to a former US naval base near the South China Sea is designed to increase pressure on China and introduce more outside forces to the region to contain the country, experts said…The Philippine government plans to transfer air and naval forces, with their aircraft and warships, to Subic Bay, northwest of Manila, to gain faster access to the South China Sea, Philippine Defense Secretary VoltaireGazmin said.
"It's for the protection of our West Philippine Sea," said Gazmin, using Manila's newly adopted name for part of the South China Sea. Subic's location will cut the time it takes for fighter aircraft to get to the South China Sea by more than three minutes, compared with flying from Clark Air Base, north of Manila, where some air force planes are currently based, according to a confidential defense department document obtained by The Associated Press.
The natural deep harbor can also accommodate two large warships that the Philippines recently acquired from its ally the United States, and will grant visiting US forces, ships and aircraft temporary access to more of its military camps to allow for more joint military exercises than are currently held, the media reported.
The first US coast guard cutter was relaunched as the Philippines' largest warship in 2011. Philippine President Benigno Aquino III will lead ceremonies on Aug 6 to welcome the second ship at Subic, the Philippine navy has said.
Aggressive stance
Li Guoqiang, deputy director of the Center for Chinese Borderland History and Geography at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Manila is building up and concentrating its military forces near the South China Sea "with a clear target — China".
The move continues Manila's stance on the issue this year, which violates the spirit of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and increases the risks of conflicts in the region, Li said.
"If all related parties resort to military means as Manila has for a resolution, the region will surely become a powder keg."
China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei have overlapping territorial claims over parts of the South China Sea. China's call for a peaceful solution has recently gained a positive response from nearly all the involved parties, but not Manila.
The report AP cited said that the cost of repairs and improvements at Subic needed for an air force base there will be at least $119 million.
Despite the high cost, the plan is likely to take place with assistance from Washington, which has been shifting its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region, and Tokyo, whose ties with Beijing have been strained after Japan illegally "nationalized" China's DiaoyuIslands in the East China Sea, Li said.
Complicating issue
Su Hao, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at China Foreign Affairs University, said external forces that share the Philippines' goal of containing China are complicating the regional South China Sea issue.
"What Manila sometimes did was to meet the needs of Washington and US allies, to seek more support from them," he said.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe presented Manila 10 patrol boats for the country's weak naval forces last week, during his third trip this year to Southeast Asia.
The US-based Military Times website said that with the Pentagon's strategic focus shifting to the Pacific, the Philippine bases are an ideal stopping point that's roughly 1,600 km west of Guam, where four US ships are based.
"With this recognition of an existential threat from China, I think there's much more interest in having the US presence," the media quoted Carl Baker, a Hawaii-based defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as saying.
But Su said the role Washington can play in the future is still unclear. "The US would like to see Manila posing threats to China or to back Manila behind the scenes, but it is reluctant to have open conflicts with China," he said.
From the foregoing, it appears that to China, it is acceptable for them to occupy and militarize reefs and islets within our EEZ and that should not be considered a violation of “the spirit of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.”
China Daily should direct to Beijing instead of the Philippines this statement in their article: "If all related parties resort to military means as Manila has for a resolution, the region will surely become a powder keg."
After all, it was China that started grabbing features in our EEZ using their superior forces and has resorted to military means.
We should have more military exercises with our allies in the regions such as this one:
SAN ANTONIO, Philippines, Sept 18, 2013 (AFP) - The Philippines and the United States launched war games Wednesday at a naval base facing turbulent waters claimed by China, as the allies sought to highlight their expanding military alliance.
About 2,300 marines from both sides are taking part in the annual manoeuvres which this year are being staged alongside the South China Sea and come ahead of US President Barack Obama's planned first visit to the Philippines next month.
The Philippines, which has been seeking US military support to counter what it perceives as a growing Chinese threat to its South China Sea territory, welcomed the exercises as another important plank in building its defencecapabilities.
And of course more technical assistance from the US, like “unmanned US Navy surveillance planes to help monitor activities in Philippine waters, particularly in the South China Sea.”
Oyster Bay
I support the plan for a Mini-Subic in the Palawan area, described as follows:
Mini-Subic' being planned
near Palawan's underground
River
By ANDREW R.C. MARSHALL and MANUEL MOGATO, Reuters October 2, 2013
Reuters - Oyster Bay, a postcard-perfect cove on Palawan Island that the Philippines expects to transform into a port for its naval frigates and eventually for American warships--all overlooking the disputed South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Oyster Bay is about 160 km (100 miles) from the Spratlys.
"In Manila, the leaders must move behind rhetorical blandishments about a new spirit of partnership and start to detail specific actions
That will strengthen Philippine defense capabilities," said Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific security expert at the Center for a
New American Security in Washington. That includes building a permanent home for the Philippines' two big warships. It also means finding strategic areas where the United States could rotate troops, ships and naval aircraft — all within easy reach of territory claimed by Beijing."Oyster Bay may be the best choice," said Cronin.
The arrival of the two converted coast guard cutters is part of the resurgence of the Philippine Navy with the assistance of the US.
President Benigno Aquino III made this statement upon arrival of the second Navy ship BRP Alcaraz: “Now that the BRP Alcaraz is here, it will definitely boost our patrols around the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone and our ability to quell threats and dangerous elements, respond to search and rescue operations, and needs of our marine resources,”
The Philippine Navy’s resurgence follows global trends.
From Reuters is this article entitled “From Syria to South China Sea, Navies Cruise Back Into Vogue. Reuters” which also mentions the upgrading of the Philippine Navy:
From Syria to South China Sea, Navies Cruise Back Into Vogue. Reuters
“LONDON — After a quarter century of Middle Eastern land wars and a sharp fall in big powers' naval spending after the Cold War, sea power is back in vogue in response to the rise of China… Washington is moving ships from the Atlantic to Pacific in part to confront Beijing's People's Liberation Army Navy, seen the primary beneficiary of years of double-digit defense budget increases.”
“Beijing began operating its ex-Soviet carrier late last year, though it says it is not yet fully operational. It is also building submarines, patrol boats and other warships
“In September, state-backed China Shipbuilding Industry announced it planned to raise $1.4 billion through a private share sale to buy assets used for building warships, the first time Beijing had tapped the capital market to fund its military expansion.”
“Worried nearby nations - particularly those with Maritime boundary disputes with China - are upgrading everything from radar to missiles…
“Japan will next year see its largest defense spending rise in 22 years, purchasing patrol boats and helicopters and creating a force of marines.”
“Australia is boosting its navy to include new assault ships, while Vietnam is buying Russian submarines.
“The Philippines is dramatically expanding its once almost moribund force, acquiring two former U.S. Coast Guard cutters,
Japanese patrol boats and a second-hand French warship.”
The Economic Factor: China’s Economic Downturn and the Philippine Economic Rise
China’s military rise and assertiveness are the result of its dramatic economic rise.
However there is hope that China’s rise will soon slow down, and this reduce as well her aggressiveness in the face of domestic economic troubles.
Let me quote the article of Stratfor Founder George Friedman in his article “Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle” last July 23, 2013 in Stratfor’sGeopolitical weekly:
“Last week, the crisis was announced with a flourish. First, The New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-recipient Paul Krugman penned a piece titled "Hitting China's Wall." He wrote, "The signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We're not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country's whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be."
On the other hand, from neutral international economic analysts, there are the very bullish and optimistic reviews on the Philippine economy.
Here’s a bullish forecast from Standard Chartered:
The Philippines can grow faster than China in the coming years, a top official of British bank Standard Chartered said Thursday.
Standard Chartered global macro research headMarios Maratheftis said the economy might expand 8 percent or faster annually beyond 2015, if current policies of the present administration, healthy fundamentals and strong business confidence were sustained.
“There is no reason for the Philippines not to grow faster than China,” Maratheftis said.
“Policy, fundamentals and confidence would be the three key drivers of growth. Policies are moving in the right direction, especially on public-private partnership projects, fundamentals are also very healthy and confidence is high. These three are well aligned for the Philippines,” Maratheftis said.
A Standard Chartered’s recent business confidence survey showed the Philippines obtained the highest score in 2013, with the United Arab Emirates getting the second highest result.
“Generally, there is more confidence from the corporate sector. If this level of confidence can be translated into actions, the Philippines can attract more foreign direct investments,” Maratheftis said.
And from Reuters last May 2013:
Philippines' surprisingly strong first-quarter growth eclipses China
(Reuters) - The Philippines on Thursday posted surprisingly strong growth in the first quarter, knocking China from pole position in Asia, driven by robust domestic consumption and government spending.
The stellar pace of expansion, which blew past expectations, pulled the peso up from an 11-month low and cemented views the central bank would leave its key policy rate on hold this year.
Growth is seen powering on after the Philippines earlier this month got an investment grade rating from Standard & Poor's, the second debt agency to do so this year. That lowers borrowing costs and helps to attract foreign capital for an economy mired with high unemployment and poverty.
First quarter GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 2.2 percent over the prior three months, the fastest clip since the first quarter of 2012. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast 1.6 percent growth.
From a year earlier, the economy grew 7.8 percent, helped by robust domestic spending, making the Philippines the fastest growing economy in Asia as it pushed past China's 7.7 percent annual pace and 1.6 percent quarterly growth.
The Philippines' year-on-year GDP figure also topped the 6.1 percent growth forecast in a Reuters poll and was the fastest since the second quarter of 2010, then boosted by spending related to national elections that put President Benigno Aquino in power.
"We may now be moving along a new growth trajectory," economic planning chief ArsenioBalisacan told reporters.
Capital formation jumped an annual 47.7 percent in the first quarter as the private sector invested heavily to expand capacity given strong domestic consumption.
Public construction climbed 45.6 percent as a faster budget roll-out and better fiscal position allowed for more spending to rehabilitate decrepit school buildings, roads and bridges.
Per capita GDP grew an annual 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the highest in at least two years, although unemployment was at a year-high of 7.1 percent as of March.
And from one of the best arbiters of a country’s economic performance, here’s a recent headline only in early October 2013:
Moody’s Gives Philippines Investment-Grade Rating
HONG KONG — The Philippines received an investment-grade rating from Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday, underscoring the rapid growth and political stability that the country — once seen as a “sick man of Asia” — has enjoyed in recent years.
The one-notch upgrade to Baa3 means the Philippines is now rated as investment grade by three of the world’s leading ratings agencies. Fitch Ratings ranked the country as investment grade in March, and Standard & Poor’s followed suit several weeks later.
Moody’s said the country’s robust economic performance, fiscal and debt consolidation, political stability and improved governance were reasons for the upgrade.
“The Philippines’ economic performance has entered a structural shift to higher growth, accompanied by low inflation,” Moody’s said in a news release.
It added: “The new growth path is being reinforced in part by improved fiscal management. Revenue growth has accommodated sizable increases in infrastructure and social spending.”
Scarborough Shoal another Mischief of China???
Now, let’s look at China’s newest apparent territorial push:
The latest development is that there appear to be some construction activities in Bajo de Masinloc or Scarborough Shoal. According to the Department of National Defense, around 75 concrete blocks were spotted during a recent aerial surveillance of the area. This is very ominous as itcould be the prelude to converting our Shoal into a Chinese military installation right in our front yard.
This is another challenge and China may be crossing a red line if it builds a structure in Scarborough Shoal.
But in the face of all these provocations, the Philippines maintains its Rule of Law approach. The Economist noted this:
PHILIPPINES RESPECTS RULE OF LAW:
From the Economist 
“The Philippines has also invoked a United Nations bodythe International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS).
In January it asked ITLOS to rule on China’s claim in the South China Sea, a vaguely explained U-shaped “nine-dashed line” looping round virtually all of it. ITLOS has now asked the Philippines to present a detailed“memorial” by the end of March 2014. China will simply ignore the proceedings, but risks some embarrassment
Status of ITLOS CASE:
REUTERS: Philippines S. China Sea legal case
Against China gathers pace
Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:09am EDT
* South China Sea legal case a "proxy battle" for tensions at sea
* Philippines builds crack legal team
* China still objecting, saying case has no merit
* Case resonating widely as tensions build
* Recent move by judges' panel possibly favourable to Manila
CONTINUATION REUTERS ARTICLE:
By Greg Torode
HONG KONG, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Philippines' legal challenge against China's claims in the South China Sea is gathering pace, emerging as a "proxy battle" over Beijing's territorial reach.
Manila has assembled a crack international legal team to fight its unprecedented arbitration case under the United Nations' Convention on the Law of the Sea - ignoring growing pressure from Beijing to scrap
the action.
Any result will be unenforceable, legal experts say, but will carry considerable moral and political weight.
Spain to help
There’s good news from Europe. Spain, with its hundreds of years of history in navigating the South China, has announced its support for the Philippine legal case and will “turn over 70 historical maps to strengthen Philippine claim over disputed territories.”
STATE DIPLOMACY:
MALACANANG AND DFA
State Diplomacy is handled by the President or Malacanang Palace and the Department of Foreign Affairs when the Philippine case was filed in the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, in dealing with ASEAN, in bilateral discussions with China, the United States, Japan, Vietnam, India, Australia and other relevant countries.
But there’s another kind of diplomacy that is as important, especially in making the world know about the aggressive, hostile, bullying and land grabbing behavior of another country especially the bully in the neighborhood: Public Diplomacy.
ALSO IMPORTANT IS PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
“In international relations, public diplomacy or people's diplomacy, broadly speaking, is the communication with foreign publics to establish a dialogue designed to inform and influence.”
And that is why I organized a movement of citizens called “Di Ka Pasisiil”Movement to help in the needed public information campaign so the nation and the rest of the world will know about China’s violation of Philippine sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea.
And the Di Ka Pasisiil Movement joined the umbrella organization called the West Philippine Sea Coalition.
In a short time the Public Diplomacy efforts and movement made waves here and abroad!
IS THERE A PEACEFULWIN-WIN SOLUTION?
Last September 26, I listened to the speech of China Ambassador Ma Keqing when she spoke in the Rotary Club of Manila
where I belong.
She stressed the Chinese Dream: “Powerful & prosperous state. Dream of peace. Peace & development. Aware of preciousness of peace. Without peace little can be accomplished. Dream of development and benefits for Chinese people.”
She dangled the trade carrot:
“Chinese development has made significant contributions to the world. 10 trillion dollars imports target. Provide massive opportunities for the rest of the world.”
“China remains Philippines third largest export market.Tourist arrival 245,000, third largest for the Philippines. Trade however left far behind compared with other ASEAN countries. 2 Million Chinese tourists in Thailand. We can be important market for each
other. Opportunity waits for nobody. In dispute in the South China Sea, China is ready to solve dispute through dialogue, peaceful solutions. Preferred joint exploitation of natural resources. Serve interest of both countries and promote regional peace.”
She was asked: “Why is China not participating in arbitral tribunal?”
Her answer: “In China, we resolve disputes by talking to each other. When people file a case in court, they are not anymore friends. Solve problem by dialogue. Better way is to talk to each other. Arbitration was resorted to without consulting China. It was a unilateral act of the Philippines.”
(Golez: They also did not consult us when China
Occupied Mischief Reef and
Scarborough Shoal!)
We asked her: “What peaceful solution do we have in the West Philippine Sea? “
Her Answer: “Difficult, not easy issue to solve. We are very patient to solve the problem. Let's focus on joint exploitation; we cannot let the natural resources remain idle. “
That is China’s position as articulated by their Ambassador.
China plans Maritime Silk Road with ASEAN nations:
Report
China President Xi Jinping presented a big carrot to ASEAN:
China plans Maritime Silk Road with ASEAN nations: Report
“China is the 10-member ASEAN group's largest trading partner, with the two-way trade exceeding $400 billion last year.
China proposes to build a Maritime Silk Road with Southeast Asia countries where it is locked in a vexed dispute over the South China Sea to boost its foreign trade, state media here reported today.
The Maritime Silk Road (MSR) formed the basis for the plans to enhance trade between China and ASEAN countries during the current visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Indonesia and Malaysia where he stated the MSR would help turn the "Golden Decade" between China and the region into "Diamond Decade".
Such a project would be built upon solid political basis and economic foundations, and is in line with the common aspirations of the peoples of China and the ASEAN countries, a commentary by the state-run Xinhua news agency said.
MARITIME SILK ROAD WITH ASEAN NATIONS?
MEGATRADE WITH CHINA?
WHY NOT?
BUT CHINA MUST GET OUT OF OUR WEST PHILIPPINE SEA FIRST!!
Thank You!
ROILO GOLEZ
Addendum:
SMALL COUNTRY CAN BEAT MUCH BIGGER COUNTRY
From "David and Goliath" the newest book of best selling author Malcolm Gladwell:
"Suppose you were to total up all the wars over the past two hundred years that occurred between very large and very small countries. Let's say that one side has to be at least ten times larger in population and armed might than the other. How often do you think the bigger side wins? Most of us, I think, would put the number at close to 100 percent. A tenfold difference is a lot. But the actual answer may surprise you. When the political scientist IvanArreguin-Toft did the calculation a few years ago, what he came up with was 71.5 percent. Just under a third of the time, the weaker country wins.
"Arreguin-Taft then asked the question slightly differently. What happens in wars between the strong and the weak when the weak side does as David did and refuses to fight the way the bigger side wants to fight, using unconventional or guerrilla tactics? The answer in thosecases , the weaker party's winning percentage climbs from 28.5 percent to 63.6 percent.”
"Australia can deploy 6 Collins class submarines"?
ReplyDeleteAustralia would be happy to have two operational submarine at a time. Fleet planing is for 2 submarines at longer docking maintenance (open hull ...), two submarines with smaller repairs and just SHOULD be available.
Another problem is Australia can hardly man more than two submarines...